Member Info for Porky9

Similar thought process, Significant prospects for "Novacyt Inc" the new stateside division, materially undervalued but no change there:
https://twitter.com/TaylorQuant/status/1407250002276229125

It's said that the darkest hour of the night comes just before the dawn.....

GLA

@Ad4you
Thanks, very kind of you to say, Wishing you well with this investment.

I will continue to add here. I thought the results today were fantastic. We had the clarity required. The H1 due out shortly will be solid, the average diagnostics business even doing just £100m a year revenue is valued more than four times where we are tonight, the valuation doesn't make any sense at all.

Add to that the new product lines due to add shortly, its world class R&D, one of the only tests on the market that detects all VOCs and it makes the valuation even more ridiculous. Clearly out of love with some retail sentiment but that can still change. I remain positive.

The forward plans are expected with the H1 shortly and we should know if the LFT secures "Home" use and the partner arrangements. Also sounds like an acquisition is planned shortly. Once the DHSC issue is closed off even better but at least we know worse case scenario now which i also take as a positive.

I am actually more confident about the company today than i was yesterday! As for the share price totally disappointing and materially undervalued but it is what it is.

GLA

@troublesome
Salts not good for pigs either :0

@Bluelight
You take care whatever your call. It's a rollercoaster and a half...
If you do connect, i can share bits i pick up with you if your interested. if not understand
onwards and upwards
Pork's

@Troublesome
Bluelight is old enough to make his/her own predictions, old enough to do own research and old enough to decide if they want to agree or take what i say with a pinch of salt. Likewise, anyone can agree or ignore what i think, its their call.

What i don't like is one time posters visiting here, or shorters or traders with objectives insulting the poster, or digging cut paste out of context comments to try and ridicule, because under pressure Bluelight sold out on some stock? Frankly Bluelight didn't have to say anything?

What is this exactly? Far bigger issues in this world. Meanwhile, i will try and share what i research i find and as i say, LSE visitors can ignore or take with a pinch of salt.

Take Care
Pork's

We obviously cover loads and loads and loads of examples and it doesn't change a thing but;
even EKF is better rated than us and we have world class R&D and doing significantly higher revenues. See:-
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/ekf-diagnostics-holdings-plc-ord-1p/financial-statements-and-reports

So it has a £ 341 mcap
Ann Revenue £ 65 m
Profit £ 11 m
CAB £ 21 m

Our mcap tonight is now £ 239m and look at the figures declared and forward earnings expected to be £100m+
Seriously we should be at absolute bare minimum of twice our current SP and multiples of that with a decent PE Ratio assigned. Its utter madness and i fully understand why SH are frustrated.

Porks.

@Bluelight
Also, re-read your own post, you are 100% on point. So armed with that thought process regarding the fundamentals ask yourself "How much lower can this go?" it's £ 239m. Are we at bottom? Can it say half from here?? Can it go even further under its own fire sale asset value? maybe?. What is the risk/reward ratio? value slide lower v possible correction and correct value?
Then add in: a new product line with substantial revenues to come online any moment, A positive H1 statement, an acquisition and a main market listing and are the odds now moving more in your favour of an increase.

Final Thought for you: ASOS came to market at 5p its shares were doing sh@t, I held 300,000 shares. (£15k) it did next to nothing for 18 mths then it bounced to about 12p and then fell back to 4p, then they had a warehouse fire, as if things couldn't get worse. Business interrupted, shareholders moaning, selling out, a car crash. It started recovering the following year and the rest is history. I sold a chunk of stock on a further rise at 15p (3 bag) if i had my time again i wouldn't have sold one share.
Now i know its not apples with apples but, i genuinely believe that NCYT is to Diagnostics what ASOS is to retail.
Its going to happen, just going to take a bit longer....
Take Care

@Bluelight
They will move it to the main index. They have just moved to reporting in sterling only. There is a reason for that.
Give it some thoughts, it will happen, join me on twitter.
Take Care
Pork's

@Bluelight
You have come this far, buy back in, stick with it, now is not the time to bail, a heck of a lot on the horizon here, just needs more time.
Connect with me on twitter the future is bright :-
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here

@Morningson
No must be some technical glitch - maybe even LSE cant believe the SP
Take Care

@Surfie1961
Of course i am not happy with the share price fall. It makes a total mockery of investing when a business mcap is so out of line like this with its fundamental value - its a total farce,

Am i happy with the update - YES
Am i happy with the clarity provided - YES
Am i happy with the Longevity of the Business - YES
Do i think significantly more to come - YES

Am i happy with the SP - NO - Its simply defies all known logic but i remain invested, this situation will change. The business is history in the making. The business side is RIGHT, the SP now needs to catch up with the fundamentals!!!! and it will....

Good luck whatever your call

Pork's

@Bluelight
Good luck for your future trading - Take Care

Retail will i guess capitulate positions, II have time to sit back and this is why most step price changes drop when least expected after updates but not always on the same day.

Time will tell how this plays out, from my own point of view as i have said, i think it was a superb update and provided the clarity required. I am more confident than ever on the longevity of the business.

A move onto the main market would also be a welcome boost and I really can see that happening fairly soon, they have outgrown the current arrangement ...

GLA whatever your call

Pork's

I am actually VERY happy with todays update.

It provides the clarity we all so desperately needed and we have much more to come so i remain both very positive and relaxed.

Of course todays SP is a continuing disappointment, its traded to death and not even remotely in line with its fundamental value but this will change.

A move to the main market, the launch of the LFT into their ready made distribution network, the H1 due shortly will all add. Much more to come..

GLA

Superb update providing the detail we needed

Longevity of the business confirmed should result in a PE Ratio rating in line with its peers in the diagnostics sector

Very positive, ignore the games, we will be heading back to ATH levels in no time

GLA

Amazing Update

So we can replace DHSC product dispute at £20m and our map has been hammered by what £300+ million.

Significant SP uplift in progress

Well with any luck GM will move us towards a main market listing or over to the NASDAQ and its bye bye ODDO anyway unless they can dump them sooner - here's hoping...

Anyhow, they have a great relationship with Numis and S P Angel and i always say three is a crowd.

WORSE CASE SCENARIO
BOTTOM side of the range with a 100% total write off revenues for the dispute: -
Revenue £63.3 m
EBITDA £ 44 m
Cash at Bank £ 18 m SHARE PRICE £ 3.20 (Pre-Rally)

BEST CASE SCENARIO
TOP MAXIMUM side of the range with 0% total write off revenues for the dispute: -
Revenue £ 267 m.
EBITDA £ 180m
Cash at Bank £ 87m. SHARE PRICE £ 12.20 (Max at Rally)

What we arrive at is anyone’s guess as we have zero clarity regarding how big the dispute is.
Tonight, we are at Share price £ 3.65 so that puts us at about 12% above worse case scenario and a total revenue write off.

So, any result declared above the following will be a GOOD Result and should reflect in a Share Price increase – Higher the figures the better.

CURRENT SHARE PRICE IS BASED ON (Approx.)
Revenue £ 70 m
EBITDA £ 49 m
Cash at Bank £ 20 m SHARE PRICE £ 3.65 (Current)

Good Luck all
Pork’s

Guys,
Just noticed a few new faces posters show up tonight with totally ridiculous estimates so we can expect some attempt at a short. I suspect the Share Price will rally tomorrow as its materially undervalued, so they will attempt to hijack it, Do not fall for it. Do NOT sell.
The H1 results to end of this month will follow in about two weeks.

REMEMBER: These results are the audited figures for the period to the end of 2020 so they can’t possibly be higher than the previously reported figures and we need a provision for DHSC

The previous declared figures which is the TOP side Figures with ZERO provision for dispute (Converted to Sterling)
Revenue £ 267 m.
EBITDA £ 180m
Cash at Bank £ 87m.

The burning question will be what will the provision for DHSC dispute come in at as this figure will come off the above.

As a Comparison we can use the H1 figure which would be the BOTTOM side of the range.
Revenue £63.3 m
EBITDA £ 44 m
Cash at Bank £ 18 m SHARE PRICE £ 3.20

SO the above is the range, if DHSC position results in 100% total write off they would declare the above. The Share Price is marked down on this worse case position

I will post again to keep visibility simple.

Good Luck Guys

Porks

Guardian are reporting that this winter we can expect big increases in the flu virus:-
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/21/flu-could-be-a-bigger-problem-than-covid-in-uk-this-winter
“We’ve had a very, very low prevalence of flu for the last few years, particularly virtually nil during lockdown, and we do know that when flu has been circulating in very low numbers immunity drops in the population, and it comes back to bite us. So flu can be really, really important this winter.”

Of course due to low levels of flu last year, our WinterPlex product sales were not that high. If the numbers start increasing then i can see WinterPlex sales taking off. Lets face it , being able to quickly identify Flu from Covid is now a more likely situation.

One to watch anyhow....

We already know that pre-dispute the revenue for the year was going to come in at €311.6m which is about £ 267 m. It was also suggested that EBITDA was going to come in at €210m which is about £180m and that cash at bank to the year end was coming in at €101m which is about £ 87m.

The burning question will be what will the provision for DHSC dispute come in at? This is what I am looking for clarity on tomorrow.

Mcap tonight is a mere £ 251m so its already priced in on worse case scenario imo.

Once this is out the way, it will be a couple of weeks until the H1.

Based on what we know: -
Last FY H1 came in at €72.4 million (£63.3 million)
Cash at bank of £ 18m - SP was £3.20
Rally started soon after

This FY H1 will likely come in €130 to 140 million+ (£110 million) we already know that Q1 was €83.0 million (£72.6 million) so another £ 35m in Q2 looks plausible?

Cash at bank of £ 120m to £140m+ - Currently our SP is a fire sale values under £4.

No matter which way I dice these numbers they reflect a materially higher Share Price than where we are tonight. And that is without all the additional product line revenues.

I genuinely think we are on the cusp of a major bull run here. Unless they announce that they are going to write off £200m of sales tomorrow which Is highly unlikely the only way from here is up.

Not long to wait now anyhow

Good luck all,

Pork’s