Member Info for Porky9

@Sharedealer2019
Totally agree, companies never bring results forward if bad news. They bring them forward because they have something to say and want the world to know about it.
As for the DHSC i have no idea if they have settled or not, it would be great if they have BUT i would settle for a provision in the accounts if they haven't just so that we have clarity on numbers.
We can then move forwards...
Pork's

Good luck all for tomorrow
I think this is the last chance to get in under £ 4
We should start moving on up from tomorrow
VERY positive

@Brentw1
Can't disagree with any of your points raised. Spot on.
Hoping that tomorrows statement has the clarity over the DHSC that we need, that should kick start the move north
GLA

Well, my trade was executed by HL at open, timed that one great:)
2,587 shares at 389.06

Still, it is just a short matter of time before anything under £10 is going to look cheap so I am not concerned over a few pence for now.

Was surprised at todays fall back so far but it looks like the “Covid Bucket” we are in with AVCT and ODX all got a smack this morning which is odd when you consider that the Indian Variant is taking off with a third wave worldwide, UK government are talking about swopping isolation for yet more PCR and LFT testing and testing for travel is also on the rise – crazy.

Sooner we are re-rated as a diagnostics group rather than a short term covid play the better. A PE under X1 here is simply crazy.

Anyhow tomorrow’s results should hopefully set the scene.

Onwards and upwards

GLA

Pork's

Experts believe that the major factor why so many cases of the Indian Variant were introduced into the UK within a short space of time was due to the volume of travel.

Public Health England figures show the variant was introduced at least 500 times by travellers to the UK. Apparently, it is not the case that every single person infects three others. Instead, with this variant one person might infect 30 others while another person infects no-one at all - whether because of differences in their biology, behaviour or living conditions.

There's an element of chance - if five people arrive in the UK carrying the variant, you could get lucky and none of them would pass it on. If 500 come in, it's just more likely at least one will pass on their infection, or even be a super-spreader.

Experts believe some countries may already be heading the same way as the UK - but that they have genetic sequencing programmes which analyse fewer swabs, more slowly, meaning they can't see it in the data yet.

It is quite likely that the Indian Variant (Delta) will become the dominant variant in other countries.

The variant is considerably more transmissible and we know - including from the example of the Alpha variant first identified in Kent - that the virus eventually finds a way to spread.

IMO what we are seeing in the UK is the start of possibly the third wave worldwide and countries with low vaccination rates will feel it quicker, matter of time. Worrying.

Take care

Pork's

@Bloodshot
I'm not convinced that government are going to get behind one test. I think it's more likely as long as you make the Validation list from 1st September, Any on that list can be used? What would be the point of building a UK validation list otherwise? But then again they do change policy and U-turn at every moment.

Secondly, the government only extended Innova's license by two months from 22nd jun. I don't think this was to authorise further purchases. more likely to avoid embarrassment of having to trash the remaining supply. It would need further extension in August.

Thirdly, current trials are interesting. perhaps it will be a case of; this is the policy if you don't want to isolate following going on holiday; two PCR and 7 LFT or whatever and you buy packs from the suppliers listed.

Time will tell but, a further positive for us if a policy is introduced that moves isolation to even further testing and it turns out that all our existing distribution partners can sell our PCR and our LFTs as a package deal. bring it on...

@Soder
If they dump the Bourse and move to main market they won't need ODDO for the French market.
They won't need to write everything in French either and satisfy two sets of regulations so its a total no brainer move.

We don't need ODDO, it was a poor appointment imo, bad decision, they have not helped build our profile in France, its been a mitigating disaster, we are moving to sterling because we transact little business in French. Says it all.

I would also go one step further and suggest that as the bulk of shorts have also been on the bourse, i do question if there has been any information leaks or subtle hints of direction? I can't prove that and its just wild speculation but there has been some very convenient big sells night before a press release, just saying.... but whatever the case, frankly the sooner they can dump ODDO the the better.

Anyhow, we already have Numis and S P Angel as it is and they do a mighty fine job imo. They don't rush out valuation changes, they take their time and take into account all factors and imo do a much better job. Three brokers and three lots of broker fees is one to many imo...

Pork's

Firstly, when a company announces it bringing it is results forward that normally indicates it has something positive to report. A company does not rush to release financial news if its cr@p.

Secondly, we already know that pre-dispute the revenue for 2020 was going to come in at €311.6m which is about £ 267 m. It was also suggested that EBITDA was going to come in at €210m which is about £ 180m and that cash at bank to the year end was coming in at €101m which is about £ 87m.

The burning question will be what will the provision for DHSC dispute come in at? Well not that we need reminding but even with our small SP uplift on Friday our mcap is still a derisory £ 275m !!! so even if EBITDA was reduced to £ 10m at a decent PE Ratio we will still exceed the current value. The upside is massive from here as I see it.

Thirdly, shortly after these audited results are published, it is only a couple of weeks until the first half year results are out and forward plans.

Based on what we know: -
Last FY H1 came in at €72.4 million (£63.3 million)
Cash at bank of £ 18m - SP was £3.20

Rally started soon after

This FY H1 will come likely come in €140 million+ (£120 million)
Cash at bank of £ 140m+ - Currently our SP is fire sale values under £4.

So, in conclusion am I feeling positive, sure as hell I am, only way is up from here.

GLA

Price Target Remains at £ 54 I stand by my Valuation calculations.

Shareholders are fickle and sentiment changes very quickly with a share price rise.

Yes, Not securing the Phase 2 extension delayed things. However, we are part of the framework, and I am confident that revenues will be made up anyhow from other deals including increasing traction stateside.

GM objective is to position the business as a mid cap. I believe that will happen. I remain confident.

The decision to report in Sterling I believe is a pre-curser to announcing a move to the main market where tracker funds would automatically buy the stock also supporting the share price. This will happen imo.

We only have 72m of share in issue. That is tiny. DYOR. 72m at £ 54 gives us a market cap of just under £ 3.9bn. It is possible. Not overnight but within two years.

Thermo Fisher has a Mcap of £ 184bn it trades on a PE Ratio of x 28.9 now I am not suggesting for one moment that Novacyt will be the next Thermo Fisher overnight, but I am suggesting that it can certainly carve out a good position in the market and can reach a decent valuation. Heck currently our PE Ratio is less than x1.

There are countless other market examples. We just need to prove that earnings longer term are sustainable, and I believe they are. VOCs will be an ongoing issue that the world needs protecting against.

Novacty are positioned to support us, Diagnostics is here to stay imo.

GLA

For anyone remotely interested in Chartist views, the British Bulls today move to a BUY rating
https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=NCYT.L

Signal Update:
Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY
The BULLISH DOJI STAR pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level

Well can the toss pot comments like "ohh share run over, back down again as expected" stop because a few that "Trade" take money money out and then want to encourage others to do the same after the first couple of hours trading!!!!

Results on Tuesday will be solid, we don't know what provision may or may not be allocated for DHSC but we do know that the H1 will be due out only a short while after and that is likely to continue the run. Plus the new product lines adding, plus partnership deals.

I will maintain my positivity and those with other trading agenda's can go do one frankly.. seen it here for months on this very BB and I know what's going on and the games played...

£ 263m mcap is still a joke.... it has a long long way to go yet and i'm backing the all the way.

Good luck all genuine holders

Pork's

Well we have had worse days guys :)

Sets us up nice for Monday and still so so far to go...

Likely results on Tuesday are going to confirm even with provision for DHSC an EBITDA of probably £180m and circa £100m Cash at Bank (now 150m). Market cap even after todays uplift is a mere £ 264m, if we three bag from here it would still be cheap!

Have a great weekend, Only one way this SP can go from here next week and its materially north

GLA

+12.32% and climbing in France
Looks like lots of retail buys was expecting lots of shorts to close, maybe that's next !!!!

Probably they like the fact that:-
* Results have been brought forward
* Solid position to report. Either DHSC conclusion or confirmed provision - Either way the clarity on financials we need
* Just removed the risk of possible further delays (up to three months)

Token increase so far, just the start, mcap still a derisory £ 255m, long long, long way to go yet.... i bet we still come in over £180m EBITDA on the year even with a provision....

GLA

@triumph1
Not sure why i m bothering to reply as you are the biggest de-ramper of this stock since day memorial. Hopefully you have a short or spread bet going wrong.
1. GM is NOT going to sell his Company at less than he personally invested in it
2. There is a going rate for Diagnostics - numerous deals completed
3. A low ball offer would be quickly superseded with a higher offer.
Not just private equity groups that would want this and sell off the separate divisions you also have other diagnostics businesses and all the biotechs.

If this business is sold it will be at the market rate not as a fire sale.

Pork's

Major revenue in USD converted to sterling
Easier than USD converting to Euros converting to sterling
This is brilliant news, yes maybe a rocky day but massive step forward....
Shorts will need to close...

Superb...

Have to say when i saw the headline of the RNS my heart sank, i thought oh please God don't delay these results... but no, its all good, GM done well.

And Brought the results forward a week!!!, superb and the move to reporting in Sterling is just fantastic. Next move, off the bourse and onto the main index, watch this space....

Happy days, loving it, hands down the back of the sofa time....

GLA

@Wilson63
Frustrating as hell, we know what's coming, just cant come quick enough. 9 days max tick, tock.
Would take any positive update on any of the outstanding matters at the moment.
Take care

@Hillseeker
Cracking email, thanks, also send to GB news, email: yourviews@gbnews.uk
worth a shot. I'm disgusted frankly that Innova got a two month extension and i guess it then falls under the governments new draft legislation from 1st September. it would be funny if it wasn't so serious.
Anyhow we can but try

@bluelight @1.butchers.bike
Hey, we just have to stay positive, still confident this is going to materially turn around, fundamentals have to out. Results and H1 will sort this... Go Novacyt... here's to a few blue days for a change...

Last FY H1 came in at €72.4 million (£63.3 million)
Cash at bank of £ 18m - SP £3.20

Rally started soon after

This FY H1 will come in €140 million+ (£120 million)
Cash at bank of £ 140m+ - SP £3.25

The SP is Not even remotely close to where it should be... fundamentals MUST ultimately win through.....

GLA

Thanks @Wilson63
Glad it only took you 5 Seconds :)
Take Care
Pork’s

In addition to the audited year end results due out we are also not far away now from the H1 update. Last year the Half year results were published on the 13th July so we can probably expect a similar time line.

In the last Financial Year the H1 came in at €72.4 million (£63.3 million) with cash at bank of £ 18m - The share price was £3.20 and the rally started soon after,

I believe that the H1 will come in at north of €140 million (£120 million) with cash at bank north of £ 140m - The share price is currently £ 3.35 not even remotely close to where we should be...

We can quickly see that on confirmation our share price should be materially higher. As a result i continue to add.

GLA