Member Info for Porky9

@Saxondale
It can't be AVCT because their test is not cleared for "Home" use by PD as far as I'm aware.

The mot likely suitor is:-
Excalibur - which incidentally is also a 15min test and is a Partner on PCR
https://excaliburhealth.co.uk/diagnostics-and-testing/
100% sensitivity on highly infectious people and 99% on moderately infectious.
Results observed within 2-3 minutes for highly infectious individuals and lower viral load infections within 15 minutes.

But there are others...

Taken from R&D update:-

PathFlow® SARS-CoV-2 Antigen is a professional and home use LFT for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigens using non-invasive anterior nasal swab samples to provide a result in approximately 15 minutes. Novacyt has been working with a partner to develop this test, which is able to detect the virus regardless of current known mutations. The Company intends to launch the test as CE-IVD before the end of Q2 2021 and expects it to complement Novacyt's established position in COVID-19 PCR testing. As the market for COVID-19 testing continues to develop, the Directors believe this product could add significant revenues for Novacyt.

Key Takes:-
* "Professional" and "Home" Use
* Invasive
* Unknown/ Declared Partner
* Sub 15 min Test
* Detects regardless of known mutations
* Intends to launch as Validated before 30th June 2021
* Additional Product line to add "Significant" revenues

For those not had time to research LFTs the following may be of interest.

Much talk across various boards regarding the “Potential” of great orders from LFTs. In the UK there has only been one clear winner so far and that is Innova.

A quick view of Bidstats shows the Journey, Incredible sums spent on these tests: -
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?q=innova&btype=central-gov

With the FDA now talking action against Innova stateside on what looks like possible fraud regarding its test data submissions their licence due for renewal in the UK on the 22nd could now be in jeopardy but we will not know that for sure until later this month.

Meanwhile, Novacyt are yet to show their hand. How good will the test be for S & S. Will they secure the test as claimed for both “Professional” and “Home” use? Who is the partner?

Inclusion for “Home” use is RELEVANT because it is a) Much harder to secure validation for in the UK and b) means that the test can be tested and used by anyone (not qualified)

This is the validation criteria for each stage: -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/protocol-for-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

This is the list of LFTs currently fully validated for 3a (top level) as of 3rd June. So, it will likely be updated again shortly:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/outcome-of-the-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

I believe the next couple of weeks are going to be remarkably interesting. Novacyt have said they will have a test validated for release before the end of this month.

They have never failed to deliver yet on a pledge, and I very much look forward to seeing what they can deliver here. What is fantastic is that they have the distribution channels already established, they should hopefully be able to cover all bases shortly and this additional product line is expected to add “Significant” revenues to the already solid sales performance of the company so far.

Exciting times….

@Kaeren
Just noticed your tweet earlier, really great find, thanks for sharing:-
https://twitter.com/KaerenH/status/1403861663799988228

For those not familiar with the work of Eric Feigl-Ding he is a leading Epidemiologist & Health Economist based out in Washington. This guy knows his stuff and has been 100% accurate all the way during this pandemic. In the tweet identified by Kaeren he details why the Delta Variant (Indian Variant) is a risk and why extending precautions is a good thing.

It's now looking highly likely that BJ is not going to agree to freedom day on the 21st June and on Monday will announce at least a further 4 weeks pending further data. As much as this is annoying, i do consider it actually the right move based on the science before us.

Take care all

We can't know for sure and this is a factor holding the SP down

However, what we do know is that:-
a) The fully audited published accounts are due out on the 29th June and IF the matter is not resolved there should be at least a provision detailed and we will then have clarity over the numbers.
b) we know for sure 100% that the matter is still in ADR hence both sides are taking a pragmatic approach to trying to resolve rater than going down a more costly and drawn out legal route.

From where I stand (bullish) I cant buy enough of the stock, i consider the mark down well overdone and believe we will see a significant share price step change once figures known, not just for the 2020 year but also the H1 period, forward statements and not to mention product roll outs due anytime now.

Good luck whatever your call

Pork's

If you have time, I suggest having a play with the figures based on what we do know.

It looks to me that on the plus side there is a minimum contract order shortage of units which they contractually agreed to (170 units delivered out of 300 to the end of FY 2020) and despite further orders and goods despatched from Jan 21 on the downside the DHSC could be trying to claim a refund against unused stock because they simply over ordered.

In my own experience of ADR normally despite both sides claiming they are both 100% right and will threaten to go to court etc etc but the logical decision is often to reach agreement somewhere in the middle. If it went the court route all that happens, is it gets drawn out, legal fees get added and settlement agreed may end up not much better anyhow.

WE are really in the dark because we do not know the exact amounts but if I was a betting man, as DHSC will need product in 2021 (it has a shelf life) they may well accept that the remaining supply to meet the minimum contract order will continue during 2021 to meet the unit minimums and worse case 50% refund against over ordered stock in the 2020 year. Rough guestimate £ 45m write off against 2020-year accounts?

It will be interesting to see what finally gets agreed but on the basis that the SP crash more than factors in worse case scenario here, I think we will see one hell of an SP bounce when agreement reached.

Not long to go now anyhow imo either settlement or at least clarity over the provision so that we can move on.

Pork’s

@neilrich3
You make a good point to be fair, the situation has not changed much but that is because we are closely following this, we know its in the arbitration stage, many others do not have a clue and have been put off investing in the stock as a result for fear of the unknown!!

And, if you read some of the ill researched media bits out after the SP crash, they were suggesting it was a drawn-out legal case and predicting all kinds of doom.

So, as far as I am concerned Larry’s copy of the letter issued under freedom of Information:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Larry64450205/status/1403570176579313668/photo/1
is gold, as it at least clarifies 100% that the case is still in an alternative dispute resolution (ADR) stage and the process is yet to conclude.

Now, its pure speculation but it does kind of feel like a resolve here will be agreed VERY shortly. It is not in either party interest for this matter to be drawn out. Further the window for ADR is a set number of days. I may be incorrect but wasn’t it 90 days?

As such, it maybe reality that they moved the Financial Accounts publication until the end of this month, expecting that the matter may well be resolved under the ADR before that date.

It will not surprise me if an update lands any moment soon to confirm the dispute is resolved. Here is hoping anyhow, but if not, we should at least see a provision made in the accounts, so I think it is a win win scenario for shareholders from here, share price is based on worse case scenario and should see a material improvement from that position.

Feeling extremely optimistic…

Pork's

Well, at least it's good news from the charting fraternity tonight…

Apparently, there is a rare version of a divergence: It occurs when the 2nd bottom Z of MACD fails to close below the zero line while building a bullish divergence.

It often precedes a sudden upside!! aka = Divergence missing the "Right Shoulder"

So, we can expect a massive bounce on Monday and climbs next week taking us back to the £ 6.80 to £ 7.20 line. Thank goodness for that!

Well in receipt of that knowledge we can all have something to cheer about next week….

Yes, indeed you can see the graph here: -
https://twitter.com/Borg74/status/1403608692856139777/photo/1

Meanwhile, it was most odd, I was drinking a nice cup of tea earlier and I am sure the tea leaves in the cup had separated and had formed a five and a four together…. Bad news was I couldn’t quite tell if it was £ 54 or € 54

Take Care

For those interested this is the time line of awards from DHSC to Innova reported by Bidstats:-
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/?q=innova&btype=central-gov

Obviously the costs do not take into account the additional shipping costs from China.

My gut feeling is that our government will simply try and justify the decision of making the wrong decision however, if it is proven that data supplied was falsified in order to secure the emergency validation in the first place then the pressure will be mounting for action to be taken. Eitherway, the situation is not great.

Irrespective of this, we await details of our own test. What will the S & S be? who do we partner with?
My money is still on Excalibur as prime partner:-
https://xp21.co.uk/
Other rumours include Katalyst:-
https://twitter.com/ukbambammatt/status/1403684135827349506/photo/1

Would be fantastic to see the news drop next week, confident of both Home and Professional use hence massive market share we can take.

I'm just waiting for images to be posted on Instagram of people being creative and building models of the Taj Mahal or similar out of Innova plastic test strips.

Or maybe a book out "101 uses of an Innova LFT" or "How to recycle Innova LFTs into something useful"
GLA

Going a little off centre here but I'm still perplexed why AZN went to the trouble of collating data from 40,000 saliva tests with Novacyt and nothing has ever come of it, yet results were amazing compared to LFTs. Other world markets are still looking at Saliva Tests, on other news noticed that Sona pulled out of saliva tests today:-
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/sona-discontinues-clinical-trial-for-covid-19-rapid

I guess its the fact that the saliva test needs that lab involvement v the LFT. Although with de centralised testing, mobile labs etc you could make it work? certainly in a school environment where they might not do a LFT correctly it could have legs?

It will be interesting what S&S Novacyt can deliver in respect of their new LFT release. Part of me still thinks some further partnership with Excalibur highly likely...

Sentiment towards NCYT improving, a positive going into next week for sure
GLA

@shearclass @Wilson63
Also, closer to home, we are awaiting news on the decision of the opening of the Leamington Spa Mega-Lab. It was reported last week that they were awaiting an opening date very shortly. Would the lab remain under Test and Trace or fall into the private sector?
https://www.leamingtoncourier.co.uk/news/people/we-have-been-left-in-limbo-says-leamington-employee-who-is-still-waiting-on-news-for-the-opening-date-of-towns-covid-mega-lab-3264237
Absolutely every chance we could be supplying SNPsig® range once decision made
Interesting....

@Bluelight
Agree, volume picking up, news lands next week and a further boost and hopefully take the remaining shorts out and all in good time for the full accounts published.
Finally looking like the SP is about to start powering north,
loving it...

Clearly shocking; you really couldn't make it up;
“Innova included falsified data inflating the tests’ effectiveness” “the test-maker submitted data to the FDA in its application for emergency use of the tests that appeared to have been simply copied from other test manufacturers”
https://www.statnews.com/2021/06/10/fda-accuses-company-of-distributing-unapproved-covid-test-using-falsified-data/

As our UK government almost always would rather try and prove they were right in their decision to buy Innova, it will be really interesting if PD grant validation after the 22nd but pressure must be mounting to decline, i mean its one thing having a crap test, its another fraudulently falsifying records to get it validated. Explosive.

Just need our test out now with a decent S&S, validated for "Professional" and "Home" use and it should give our SP the boost we deserve.

GLA

As you say the governments next move now will be interesting. Innova's License was due for renewal on the 22nd of this month anyhow, so suspect they will be trying to get it approved at PD.

Just need our product released now, cant wait.... any moment

GLA

*Any posts I make going forward will be 100% on NCYT only.
*Any research I will share with the community.
* If I can add value great If I do not then members should green bin me.
* I will NOT be engaging with certain posters. Period.
* This board and the AVCT board are being monitored 100% by LSE.
* Rule 4 states “we will not tolerate; rudeness, swearing, insulting posts, personal attacks, or posts which are invasive of another's privacy”.
https://www.lse.co.uk/chat-rules.html
* The board needs to return to a 100% NCYT discussion board not off topic. There are boards on LSE designed for off topic.
* My interests here are LONG I only care about the SP rising. I do not short. I do not trade this stock. I have no sell spread bets or similar.
* Hopefully as news starts flowing shortly, new investors will join, and the existing community will champion the great things that NCYT are doing.
GLA

@Gazman123
If only...
We do need that news to drop to start moving this. The full financial picture out shortly will also be most welcome, the mcap down now at £237m is beyond belief.
GLA not long now....

Closed another stock moved further £18.5k into NCYT
Jack Taylor finished filming
Pure speculation but I think news out Friday or Monday latest on Product release
GLA

@Saintsmith
100% Genuine

GM would also say to quote "I know many companies that may have a different philosophy but in my experience hype without substance will always end up in misery"

Extract from:-
"First and foremost, the RNS service used by listed companies is a regulatory service, it is not a tool to be used primarily as a PR machine. In fact if it was used in this way then the repercussions are severe for companies as well as individual Directors when it goes wrong. Second, I wish to make a point of style here. Novacyt has come (very quickly) from humble beginnings and as CEO I have tried to position the business in very difficult times to focus on delivery, not on hype. We continue to do this and we are building the foundations for a significant diagnostics business by ensuring we deliver performance, create expectations that can be realised and not to ramp the business. I know many companies that may have a different philosophy but in my experience hype without substance will always end up in misery."

I also agree 100% with the comments that B2H2SL has made

To date GM has not let us down on a delivery. Hence, if he says the LFT will be released to the market with both "Professional" and "Home" use he means it and will deliver. Further where he states that revenues from this additional product line will be "Significant" i have no reason to doubt that they won't be.

He certainly won't ramp. If anything, the polar opposite, he doesn't champion the companies successes enough.

Going to get interesting soon imo, not long to go now....

GLA

@Surfie1961
ASOS came to the AIM market at 5p
It's been as high at 5,982p and currently 4,946 to buy - Just Saying....

I consider NCYT to be history in the making AND the next ASOS