Member Info for Porky9

I genuinely cannot believe what I am hearing on Sky news about Freedom Day and the lifting of all precautions. I am absolutely staggered; it defies any kind of logic.

So, are government just going to bury their heads in the sand and totally ignore the science? Well, it certainly looks that way!!!

Watch this space, infection rate will be breaking 40,000 a day by the 19th July Freedom Day at the current rate and if they proceed as planned, no face masks, no social distance, etc, I think we will break our all-time high infection and testing rate of 68,000 set n Jan soon: -
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1411878463364083713/photo/1

I will go so far as to say by mid to late August before the children go back to school, we will be up to 100,000 Infections a day. Every infection is another test!!

Testing figures will go through the roof frankly, PCR through the NHS and Travel and LFT sales to add to the mix.

Without doubt Novacyt are going to be doing VERY well in H2 from Increased testing both here and in the rest of the world as Delta variant increases its spread, its fill your boots time as far as this stock is concerned, total no brainer.

But at what health cost does all this come at??. I genuinely cannot believe the stupidity of this decision. I want Novacyt to do well but this decision is just crazy.

Stay safe everyone.

Pork’s

@ejlefegrande
Brilliant, personally im looking for an entry point for my foot somewhere up his rear... lol

Tell you what if we had a quid for every shorting fckwit that visits here to tell us "i will be buying if the price is (10%/20% or 30% lower than whatever that days price is, take your pick) we wouldn't need to invest here we could all share the riches.

Notice however the slightest move north in the SP and the shorter's show up to de-ramp to try and protect their short position. They must be monitoring this by the minute.

This will blow big time shortly imo. Not sure how long the joint settlement on the dispute will take but moment that news drops it could take all the remaining shorts out in one hit. Lets hope so!!

H1 statement due soon and the Saliva Test update could also help. PCR Test figures are also back to Jan levels so revenues will be solid the H2 for sure. looking good.......

With the dispute overhanging many II will just be sitting back for now until they see certainty but that will change...
Numis Broker note change to a Buy rating on Friday was encouraging

Just looking for the H1 statement for further clarity on numbers and the further update on the Saliva Tests and any possible deals. Good opportunity to add currently imo.

One thing for certain, testing numbers in H2 are going to be significant world wide for sure... Delta variant now unfortunately rapidly increasing infection rates around the world.

I remain both confident and positive. The fundamentals are all there, SP just needs to catch up with them...

As we all know patience required

GLA

Our new Saliva Test would be just perfect for schools

We already know from the AZN trials that the take up rate when using spit tests is higher than swob tests, more accurate and less false rates.

Looking forward to the CE validation so they can start selling them, UK and worldwide

So 24,248 infections and climbing in the UK confirmed via testing to July 4th
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1411878463364083713/photo/1

By July 19 new daily cases likely to climb to over 40,000 and this will translate into increased hospital admissions.

Whilst i accept that Boris wants to tell us that 19th is Freedom day and the vaccine has "taken the back out of the link between infections, hospitalisations and death" the real picture is that infection rates due to the delta variant are rocketing and between 5 and 10% fully vaccinated could still end up in hospital seriously ill with the virus. This takes no consideration either for the increases in those that contract the virus and end up with Long Covid. Yes not as many dead as last time but still pressure on NHS and many seriously ill.

It looks total madness to me to remove all precautions immediately on the 19th before more are vaccinated. Making face masks voluntary will just help to spread the virus even quicker. This is a crazy situation.

Clearly, we are at the start of yet another testing boom to identify cases. When flu season starts we will need to test to identify if it is flu or if its Covid.

And this is just the UK. If the delta variant can do this to a country like us with a high vaccination rate, think of the countries with lower vaccination take up rates, infection rates will be even higher!!!!

Delta Variant already just starting to gaining traction in other countries including the USA, testing volumes both PCR and LFT will be on the increase. Good Job Novacyt have both bases covered.

GLA

Numerous other testing areas, road map proving Longevity, in fact the business only needs to be delivering £ 15m EBITDA a year on a regular basis to have a mcap and share price twice the current level. We will deliver four or five times that minimum.

Does that sound achievable, too dam right it is.

But of course, in the meantime, we have to endure this nonsense for now with the DHSC and shorter's and those with ulterior motives but a re-rate will eventually come...

Lets see what they have to say with the H1 statement due shortly..

GLA

Bored on a Sunday, think i will go for some fresh air, catch you laters...
Just to stir the pot:
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1411671691911118851
GLA

S & S is similar
Not sure why the partner not identified but Partner likely to have tests out already if you think about it, rather than AZN and other partners that don't. In GMs earlier R&D update pre product, he made two bold statements:-
1. We expect to deliver a CE Validated Antigen test to the market before the end of Q2
2. We expect this additional product line to add "Significant" Revenues
They also indicated "Home" and "Professional" use

If you are building a product from scratch there is NO possible way you could say "It will be CE Validated" no possible way, and GM NEVER puts out a statement he cant back up and you wouldn't know until the product finished and tested on samples. Therefore they knew the components in the test would work because there was an approved version already out in other formats.
True to word the product is out and validated.
Just need confirmation on the Saliva test Validation, how long it takes PD i just don't know but hopefully we get a further update very very soon
Looking really good imo
Pork's

https://www.eurofins-technologies.com/products/covid-19-testing.html
Nova Type
Nova Prime
Nova Gen
Nova Lisa

They just need Nova Cyt now for the Green Monopoly set :)

Well if that's the case then testing numbers will receive a further boost.

Last month alone 384,500 students were sent home to self isolate. On this new proposal of 10
Days daily testing, that would be just short of 4 million test kits needed…just for schools alone…per month

Testing policy rather than Self Isolation on return from Holiday?

Big push i expect from government to ditch the FREE testing policy and move it 100% to Private sector and businesses to pick up the costs. Again another add to revenues as Novacyt further expand into private sectors.

GLA

People in England could face FIVE winters of Covid-19 restrictions under plans designed to protect the NHS.
Wearing face masks and social distancing could remain part of life for the next five years, under contingency plans being drawn up by the government
https://www.thisiswiltshire.co.uk/news/19417722.covid-restrictions-remain-five-winters-bid-protect-nhs/

@Chrisdr2
I still have a small position here albeit not big enough for me to invest loads more research time now due to my ongoing research already invested into another stock.

I am totally pro testing and diagnostics, on a personal level I lost my brother-in-law to Covid earlier, he worked in distribution and had a negative Innova LFT on the same day he started feeling rough and left work early. The rest is history. I do not want to discuss here BUT suffice to say I have no time of day for the Innova test, the science evidence since track and trace Liverpool has proven the case and the FDA is the cherry on top.

I consider that the Government will deplete Innova stocks though to end of August hence why they extended the license deal and I believe will move everything to the private sector from 1st September. I may well be wrong, but my research indicates that is a more likely scenario. DHSC is not a good client. Not all business is good business. They are in dispute with firms left right and centre and its all about money, they are trying to reduce costs, not pay bills, pull out of deals, it is a total bloody disgrace.

When the Innova fiasco broke they had a week or so earlier just ordered £1.2bn of the Tat COD shipped from China, they were lining up Orient Gene as a second cheap LFT back up provider. The talk of buy British is all smoke and mirrors, its what the public want to hear, not what they are doing.

If you have a decent holding here Chris you could try calling Colin or connect with one of the staff and ask how much production is being done with the borrowed equipment? I bet you find its next to zero or extremely low to support other lines. I would do it myself, but I already have enough commitments and a stock share price on its ars@ elsewhere!!!

For what its worth, I think Omega a mighty fine manufacturer, I would not invest here if I did not rate it but to say I am cautious about government supply is an understatement. Colin is no fool, he will be looking at other markets, I believe the FDA validation a step towards that, so my view is they should press ahead with the private sector in the UK and secure orders worldwide, if any chance to invoice anything DHSC they should take it as a bonus.

The other area is partnerships with others to support manufacturing capacity, I can also see that being a real opportunity.

Finally, we are going onto a third wave of Covid worldwide as a result of the delta variant, USA next fact, see the figures, So testing at all levels will be climbing massively to ATH's. Colin just needs to tap into these markets.

Onwards and Upwards

Good Luck

Pork's

@troublsome
I agree but investors are fickle, each to their own, if they want to set low targets and sell or high targets, whatever works for the individual.
IMO step one resolve of the DHSC, step change in the SP, decent contract win, step change again, acquisition step change and so on. It's not difficult to see Novacyt as a worldwide diagnostics group with decent established profits commanding a PE north of X30 and a share price to match.

When the share price is north of £7 attitude it is going to look different again, likewise when we are on the run to £ 54. Position this business and move us off the bourse and it could still all happen.

Its all in play as far as i'm concerned, i have high hopes for Novacyt Inc Stateside, the business is doing great its only the SP that hasn't caught up and it will imo.

I wouldn't waste my time here if i didn't think this business will make it.

Good luck whatever your call

Pork's

That’s the house brokers opinion as at today

DIspute resolved, better than expected figures out, new contract win and its revised again.

As I said before, it’s worth a dam sight higher than the current rating. I see this move from NUmis a small a good sign

@chrisdr2
For what it’s worth I think ODX are a perfectly fine manufacturer. I don’t have sufficient holding to warrant investment of time on that board also but will find time later today to post to Take conversation to appropriate place. Nothing would give me greater pleasure if Novacyt won a majority stateside contract and could cut a deal with Colin support increased capacity. All positive, take care now
pork’s

@gizmo55
Yes, specifically i found the testing in Salmon stocks interesting. Having tried to catch Salmon on the rivers you kind of forget the reality that Salmon is farmed (aquaculture) and not individually caught.
https://globalsalmoninitiative.org/en/about-salmon-farming/

So of course, massive testing within this sector makes logical sense.

The way i see it is that Novacyt will become a multi -sector diagnostics group, they are already moving into multiple verticals its just with the Vast world wide Covid requirement situation its too big a demand to ignore.

Indeed, Patience is required. As i keep saying ultimately the SP has to catch up with the fundamentals here.

I think you may well be right, large supply contracts of PCR, LFT, Saliva Tests highly likely. Covid not going away and in fact based on todays data unfortunately we are going into a VERY serious phase as a result of the Delta Variant imo and its about to hit worldwide, USA next specifically.

I would go as far as to say that revenues in H2 will come in stronger than H1, watch this space. More product lines and despite the need to diversify further this current market is so vast and is looking here to stay they may as well continue flat out to supply.

GLA

@Lockedandloaded @bakky
Guys, my thoughts for what its worth are that the DHSC have been provided with proven evidence time and time again regarding the ineffectiveness of the Innova LFT. Going right back to the Liverpool test and trace results they were proven to be utter cr@p, you may as well toss a coin.

Not at any time did they halt the use of this test. It would be admitting that the decision to buy the tests from China in the first place was wrong.

After the FDA uncovered the reality of the Innova test effectiveness the right call would have been for the UK government NOT to renew the license in June. But again, to make this move would be to admit the decision to use the test was wrong. Further, they had only a couple of weeks earlier ordered yet another £1.2bn worth of the tat. By extending the licence by two-month period they could continue use and deplete this stock rather than sustain financial loss and embarrassment.
Now I do not believe in coincidences, ask yourself WHY was that license extended by Just two months? Why not another year? Answer: they will not risk buying Innova again so do not need them from the end of August when the extended license runs out and stocks depleted.

From 1st September you need LFTs approved for private sector purchase. A register of approved test providers is being put together. My view is, and it will not be a popular one, is that the provision of free LFTs from the government will be wound down due to cost and moved to the private sector from 1st September.

The only thing that could put a spanner in the works is the Delta Variant increase but as a contingency they have Orient Gene lined up ready to provide similar cheap tat if desperate but as I say, I believe its going private sector anyhow, but I hope I am wrong.

As for the “Buy British” frankly its just hollow talk, popular comments the public wants to believe but zero substance behind it. The plant at ODX has been gathering dust for months. Initially I think there was some intent to manufacture in the UK, but it is a U Turn due to cost.

As for the DHSC and awards, seriously they are not worth jack. They are full of get out clauses. As we have seen with our own contracts you do not get the full award anyway, the only thing that counts is what you sell, supply and invoice to them and even then, you need one eye over your shoulder to make sure the DHSC do not renegue on the deal or try and short-
change you. Sorry to sound so cynical but I no longer believe or trust anything that comes out of the DHSC.

Finally, the good news for us is that testing is on the increase, we have both bases covered and we are better off supplying private sector anyhow and the NHS direct under the framework deal. But it would be good to close the DHSC issue off and be paid what we are owed.

Pork's

@Vegas
Better than that, they were working on and released an Assay to pick up all five variants of aspergillosis fungal infections back in February.
Meant absolutely nothing to me at the time, apart from 5m cases world wide. Now we find that this is a side effect and more common as a result of the delta Variant the "Black Fungus" - talk about being ahead of the curve, the R&D team are absolutely world class imo.
GLA

@Vegas
Yes, it detects the Delta Variant
However, you probably won't agree with me on this but I would put the chances of NCYT, AVCT, OXD and ABDX supplying the DHSC UK government with LFTs as ZERO. We are all on our own in my opinion I'm afraid and sales will need to be secured world wide though established distribution channels.
Why am i so sure of this?? well because this crappy government will deplete the existing Innova stocks (hence the extension of their license to end of August - ask yourself why they would grant a two month extension following the FDA disclosure) and currently a) there are stock piles of them and b) the government are deluded enough to think that LFT tests wont be required from 1st September. As a back up plan, they have already signed a deal off the record with a company called Orient Gene (manufacture again out in China) as far as i know. Hence swop one pile of cheap sh@t for another.
Genuinely hope I'm wrong but no faith in how DHSC is run or its decisions
Good Luck