Member Info for Porky9

Well bull run started John 11% in France
Early days
As i say cheap at 4 times the current SP
Feeling very confident and talk this afternoon further endorses our longevity, hopefully move us towards a re-rating and a PE Ratio in line with our Peers.
X 1.67 is a Joke....
GLA

Ignore shorts, they will need to close shortly and that will further boost the share price, this is going one way only now...

H1 Trading statement will confirm over £ 95m of sales in the first half and probably circa £ 110m cash at bank. Then you have "Significant" additional sales from Both the new LFT and Saliva Range building on second half. Not to mention the second gen Antibody test in Q3 which frankly will come into its own as people test to see if they need a vaccine antibody boost or not.

Anyone that thinks test volumes are going down in the H2 needs head looking at. Testing volumes about to explode. We were at 28,000 tested confirmed cases yesterday, we will be up to about 45,000 a day by "Freedom Day" and north of 100,000 a day with relaxing of precautions further by 1st September, then you have schools testing on top. And all this is ignoring Travel Industry as more tests required for travel on top.

If the SP rallied X4 from here it would still be cheap. A PE of X 1.67 at £ 3.50 against sector diagnostics average of X15 is just absurd, i cant buy enough of this stock.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

GLA

Its a VERY fair characterisation, the figures speak for themselves, £ 3bn spent on Innova tests that stateside are to quote "to be immediately put in the trash"

Still testing levels are now starting to go through the roof in the UK, they will soon need as many as they can get their hands on...Meanwhile our PCR testing volumes will be moving towards full capacity and any LFT or Saliva tests will just add to the volumes further.

GLA

Yep, great we are taking part not just funding it...
Still solid PR although not sure whey we never get more reported coverage after. Perhaps before the next one we should ask them to invite all press to sit in on the talk?
As Kaeren says a mention of non covid tests from Mina would indeed be a bonus.

Yep
Einstein once said "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing but expecting different results" Why government ignore the science and the experiences around the world is beyond me.

It would be funny if it wasn't so bloody serious, 100,000 infections a day will ramp us up to over 2 million cases. On the 19th Freedom Day I'm going to bet that we are breaking 45,000 daily as a result of the scenes we are currently seeing in stadiums, pubs, and that's before the infection rally once precautions are dropped all together.

Might as well open the night clubs if you are going to allow 60,000 in to a football stadium, is that the logic? it will only be for a few weeks anyway until closed again. Its clear as day how this is going to unfold. Meanwhile they doing little to further promote vaccines by the 19th we will still have something like 25m not fully protected.

Well the stats don't lie. Lifting all UK restrictions from the 19th is just like adding petrol to the fire
This is the START of the UK Testing Boom
28,773 new Tested Positive Today
45,000+ A day by 19th July
100,000+ A day by 1st September

All Bases Covered * PCR * Saliva * LFT
All Countries Supplied
All Variants Detected

Delta variant highly infectious causing this UK Testing boom but rest of the world now following. Question will be can Novacyt meet the increased demand? Capacity increased and Distribution network in place.

Framework in place with NHS so supply can continue direct

GLA

Can't go wrong with this share now

Mcap already trashed to £ 230m and the H1 shortly will deliver over £ 95m of sales, £110m + cash at bank as we go into an even bigger second half as Testing levels will absolutely explode in the UK thanks to dropping all restrictions and that's before we even look at the worldwide position.

The EDITDA plus cash at bank will exceed the current market cap this year at the current rate. That is how ridiculously oversold our share price is. I continue to add.

Very Confident, good luck all

Pork's

@Mikesilver
25m not fully vaccinated yet. Much More progress required.
Unwind some restrictions yes, get pubs open allow weddings NOT full on drop the lot from 19th imo.

Face Masks in crowds or on public transport would not be difficult to maintain another few months having gone this far that's all i'm saying. One death is a death too many as far as i'm concerned.

@levincoolpal
They have to be purchased. They are not issuing more shares they are taken out of the market. Now he may well have a bonus from them to cover the cost, who knows ,but they are still purchased.

@Mikesiler
No because your decision affects my decision.

I'm not wearing a mask to protect ME, I'm wearing it to protect YOU. If you have the virus and are breathing all over me in the post office, local shop, takeaway heck just in the que at the petrol station now that social distancing has been removed along with masks, I'm more likely to contract Covid

And lets face it, it will be the ones that don't give a sh@t more likely to pass it on...

@Kitzie
You are so right about data delays. They are not fully taking into account yet the time lag between being infected and being seriously ill and hospitalisation.

Likewise, don't want to bring the conversation down further, but they are are not considering the time lag also between Hospitalisation and the death rate. If they are, then it is a "Collateral Damage" price they consider worth it?

As reported by Dominic Minghella, the Victims take a while to die, especially as our treatments are better. The Public Health England's Technical Briefing 17 suggests 0.3% of Delta cases will die. There will be north of 1million cases in the first 19 days of July at the current rate and growing. With a million new cases, that means 3,000 new deaths. That's the initial price and that's BEFORE Freedom Day.

The table is here:-
https://twitter.com/DMinghella/status/1412095123706503169/photo/1

@Kaeren
Ha, ha, ha, lol, knew i read it from an expert somewhere...
Take care
Pork's

@Kaeren
Report out of Israel, will see if i can locate was basically saying that hospitalisation from Delta of double Pfizer jabbed Covid patients was on significant increase. They lowered the percentage protection level specifically against this variant to 67% for double jabbed Pfizer.

As you rightly point out efficacy of the vaccines wanes over time hence the booster. Not wearing face masks is a stupid stupid call at this current time if you ask me....

If they were buying a business and had something going on not in the public domain they knew would materially affect the SP it would be insider. This is not.

A resolve of the dispute, validation of Saliva test, H1 above £100m, Cash at Bank higher than forecast, new contract wins etc etc all RNS able and as a contingency GM already said on a previous RNS sales from the new Rapid tests would be "significant"

As one director has taken the move to add, i am hoping others will follow

GLA

@Jackin36
I actually totally agree. The estimate will be at what level is an acceptable level of Collateral Damage. BoJo already indicating 50,000 infections a day likely. If we rally to 120,000 will that still be OK?, what if it climbs higher to 150,000?

If vaccination rates can increase here that will help. However, worldwide it will still become out of control once Delta or an equally high transmission variant takes hold - concerning.

Testing however, will be around for a long time.

Pork's

@Ad4you
Yes, I totally agree with you regarding the valuation of Oxford Nanopore, they are not an exact match with us but illustrate the value attached to these businesses being significant multiples of where we are.

There are numerous other examples, lost count now, so many. I mentioned EKF the other day, remarkably similar in Diagnostics, I would say nothing like the strength of Novacyt in terms of Bioinformatics, its reach, it is R&D teams and its range of testing verticals and even that one with just a £ 15m EBITDA is on a PE X31 compared to us on sub X2.

Yes, the dispute is overhanging, however its not an insurmountable issue, it will be resolved soon. The longevity of the business will soon be further proven.

Can Novacyt with its division opened stateside and its cash reserves and its established worldwide networks deliver more than £15m EBITDA a year from worldwide sales? I would say many multiples of that, as such I am happy to hold, add and let the business grow and the SP will follow.

If this was a HYPE business that had never invoiced anything I might be more concerned, but its not, it has proven it can not only R&D, manufacture and distribute (the complete cycle) but it can secure these multi million-pound orders, it can scale. That is not easy to do.

At such a low current valuation I will take my chances, plenty of upside here.

Good Luck Here and stay safe, if Infection rates do rally to 120,000 a day your chances of being extremely ill from Covid despite being double vaccinated significantly increase.

Pork’s

Barnardpeter is an established shorter of this stock and probably a bit concerned the SP was rising. Other stocks not making ANY revenue i can understand but Novacyt is about to deliver a H1 of about £ 95m and over £110m cash at bank and trades on a PE on X 1.7. Why anyone wants to short a stock on a PE less than X2 is beyond me but, a lot of shorts do need buying back and this is probably the last chance to try and force the price down before the infection and testing rates really rocket and people start to realise Testing is going to continue for some time.

Novacyt is a diagnostics group in multiple sectors, it has an obvious focus on Covid currently as it remains a major testing vertical. PCR and now Saliva Testing covered.

The question anyone looking to invest is : How likely is testing to go up or down now in the UK and the rest of the world now that Boris in the UK has told us, its back to normal on the 19th?

Well as i see, testing is about to absolutely rocket for sure. That's because the Virus doesn't listen to Boris. We are now up to 27,000 infections a day in the UK, Boris expects more than 50,000 a day and estimates are that it will likely go to 120,000 a day in the UK. Every confirmed case has been tested.

And this is just the UK, rest of the world will follow once this variant takes hold. Its already starting stateside. Novacyt is not just a one trick Pony, so i continue to add.

Good luck whatever your call. With a market cap of £ 229m it's a no brainer to buy. Interested to hear what the policy is on testing in schools, later today, that will be interesting.

GLA

Expecting full H1 Trading update soon, last year was out mid July
First half invoiced business likely to come in at £ 95m and Cash at Bank well north of £100 million
Will further demonstrate how ridiculously low our share price is
Business continues to deliver as we now go into a VERY busy second half
Share price just needs to catch up now
GLA

@Ad4you
Yes, i noticed the reply and of course ANY boost from the DHSC for UK Diagnostics is a good thing.

Only comment I would add is that Jamie Wallis at DHSC is actually the Tory MP for Bridgend in Wales that's about 35 miles from Merthyr Tydfil which is where the Innova factory is opening. So as long as its an Investment boost into Diagnostics per se and not more money chucked at Innova it sounds positive.

You would think that with all the negativity around Innova LFT and the fact its two month licence to support will run out in August, giving government chance to deplete those stocks, government will move to new providers from 1st September? Guess we will know soon enough.

@Naewise
With you all the way, not to mention take up rate increases, Saliva test much much easier to do, less room for error and end result far more accurate - based on the 40,000 AZN data its a total winner.
CE Validated for "Professional" and "Home" and Rapid i can see this making a superb contribution to revenues.