Member Info for Porky9

@Brentw1
I would say bulk of shorter's moved on now to other targets with more meat on the share price to erode. That's how its looking anyhow imo and with WQ reducing it confirms same.
With us being down at these levels we are at fire sale levels anyhow, damage done, only upside from here as i see it.
Although a couple of idiots in France on twitter this morning having a try, guess it takes all sorts...
Onwards and upwards - I'm confident you will see a great return, this is work still in progress :)
Good Luck to you
Pork's

Some are really trying hard to de-ramp, some idiot in France on twitter even posting half a cancelled bid stat notice. Nothing to do with us, it was even an Antibody contract and half a notice at that.
Deliberate attempt to make people think it was us, bloody sick of the games frankly...
I continue to add here as funds permit
GLA

This is truly shocking that with levels starting to increase essential workers can't access PCR testing. We are not even at the highs yet, its likely going to climb to three or four times this level by September!!!!

Why are they not following the science? I don't get it. Are they so detached and in denial that if they tell everyone Covid is over on the 19th it will be....

So much for investing in the UKs diagnostics infrastructure. Clearly the government were that bloody stupid, ignoring all the scientific advice, just hell bent on the "hope" the vaccine would be the silver bullet and have not invested for the longer term yet again. In fact, many lighthouse labs were closed down and they will now need to reopen.

But just think about that from a training and retention point of view. Would you want a job in a Government lab knowing that a few months later they are likely to get rid of you at the drop of a hat... I bet recruiting staff at that new lab in Leamington Spa is an absolute nightmare.

I'm shocked that there is already a shortage. Now Novacyt can support and no doubt they will end up doing so, but DHSC really need to start paying their bills. They will want help but have treated many companies just abysmally.

This is the turning point now, start of the testing boom for sure. As the next few weeks unfold the testing figures will speak for themselves.

Good luck all

@Oriens1
From my own research there is very limited competition for Saliva Tests. In fact if you look at the PD 3a Validated list, non are Saliva tests - they are all regular LFTs:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/outcome-of-the-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices

Also, many saliva tests on the market are in fact just Saliva Tests for onward forwarding to labs for PCR just like the established Halo one for example, its a saliva test BUT not a rapid result test:-
https://www.haloverify.com/

However, Alpha PH have a rapid saliva version see here:-
S & S Exactly the same as ours (not saying anything...)
https://alphatestkits.com/product/saliva-rapid-test-for-coronavirus/
Clinical Sensitivity: 90.1%
Clinical Specificity: 99.3%
Clinical Accuracy: 97%

Bottom line is that via the Novacyt distribution network they will be able to ship volumes, capacity will be the issue due to high demand so I'm interested in what scale up manufacturing capacity GM can secure.

Whilst we don't have total exclusivity on rapid saliva tests per sai, competition is limited, those validated even less and don't forget this is "Home" use status we are securing, it doesn't need any professional involvement

Pork's

@Sir_digby i do totally agree, adoption is going to be difficult but as @troublesome commented, if it was a different test all together such as Spit and Go it would significantly improve adoption rates.
The data out of AZN also proves a material improvement in take up rates where the non-invasive spit and go test was used over a regular LFT.
I really think, this could be a way forward even if its just to address the education sector but frankly, its a winner for all sectors as proven by the AZN data.
Interesting

Why even give air time to the pond life, we have seen it here time and time again. Don't keep the thread alive. Starve them of oxygen, distraction is their key objective.

Anyone wanting to de-ramp now they don't even try to put a valuation calculation behind their claims, bloody ridiculous.

We sit here tonight with a business doing multi millions in revenue with significant cash reserves and going onto the next wave of a testing boom and we trade on a PE of X1.75 against a market average of X15
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

The upside potential is enormous from here.

GLA

Looking at the chart its going right back to...

...the £ 7 to £ 8 range where it was prior to the DHSC issue, or am i missing something here......

@Sir_digby
I think you raise a really valid point here, you re-box anything with an Orient Gene LFT or other LFT in similar NHS packaging and i totally agree perception likely to be the same, the damage is done. I completely agree with you.

Next School kids will be seeing if another flavour of fruit shoot can trip the next LFT

Of course I'm totally biased and you can imagine what i'm going to say next..... From September all school children do the Novacyt spit and go test. S & S higher than the Innova junk, less room for error, non invasive and a brand new test totally different to any other and can be promoted as a British innovation from Novacyt in Surrey, rapid detection of the delta variant and highly effective. Absolute no brainer and winner imo

Of course HMG are just not that bright so probably expect more of the same with government scratching their heads wondering why the outcome isn't different this time with the Orient Gene LFT... you couldn't make it up..

Good job rest of the world not so stupid and our PCR sales are rocketing - all bases covered at least gives us the most market options...

GLA

Partner and reseller network just goes from strength to strength

Same with the worldwide distributors in partnership with them. The moment they release a new product to the market they can instantly add it to the network and it has an immediate and effective route to market.

The network is far reaching. Superb

Pork's

Great Find @Kaeren
Just shows you how ahead of the curve they are and how incredible these solutions are in the market:-

"labs and public health agencies will benefit from using its recently launched SNPsig® EscapePLEX SARS-CoV-2 , a faster, less-expensive method in detecting SARS-CoV-2 variants than the current NGS route"

And what i specifically like about Novacyt is that their solutions not only run on own kit but are designed to work on multi-platforms. I mean how good is that?

Cutting edge products ahead of the curve, detecting ALL variants that practically ANY lab in any country in the world can use, just think about that for a moment... the world wide revenue potential is enormous.

Good luck all

Rapid Saliva Testing just a perfect way for mass testing

PCR just a perfect way to keep us safe from Variants of Concern. Big investment in PCR labs to ensure we know what variants we are dealing with.

LFTs can only tell you if you have a Variant that is already known

All bases covered at Novacyt:-

PCR - LFT - Saliva

Doesn't get much better than this... Just awaiting the SP re-rate now

GLA

We are going into H2 with not just fantastic established revenue streams from the current PCR tests and other diagnostics revenues BUT the rapid test range is also about to kick start and add to it...

GM had previously said that the Rapid test range will add "Significant" revenues. Now we can't know yet exactly what he means by "Significant" but demand is high for sure.

I am looking forward to a further update which should come any time soon regarding the rapid range. At the current time we have two product additions:-

A) PathFlow - Saliva Test - Sensitivity of 90.1% and specificity of 99.3%
B) PathFlow - LFT - Sensitivity of 93.5% and specificity of 99.3%

As a side issue, the EU requirement is minimum performance of = 90% sensitivity and = 97% specificity for rapid tests. This means that the Saliva test fully meets EU requirements. BUT its PD validation that counts this is what NHS and a number of world wide markets want to see. This can't come quick enough.

Our LFT is CE Marked Validated which is fantastic, Our Saliva Test is due CE Validation at any moment..... I would say that it is our Saliva Test that will gain the most traction in H2. We have absolutely next to zero competition for this device and without doubt its a certain winner for schools and anyone that would prefer a non invasive test.

So Good Luck guys, the football might not have come home but the revenues worldwide for these tests will and the SP will soon reflect that.

For any new investors here wanting to find out more about the business or those that haven't had chance yet, i would suggest its well worth reading the company annual report:-
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Novacyt-AR-2021-2806-spreads.pdf

When you consider that our market cap is under £ 250m and we are valued at a PE of X1.8 for a Diagnostics and Bioinformatics business of this quality, it really is exceptionally cheap. The upside potential from here is breath taking:-
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

I remain very positive about the future outlook here. As you can see from the report, whilst they are diversifying into numerous diagnostics fields and have material M&A plans, the world wide Covid diagnostics market is going to need supporting for many years, it will remain a substantial vertical.

Currently its all about the testing boom and the continued PCR testing, the addition of rapid tests BUT bioinformatics will always have its place, the constant need to test to protect against new Variants will be here for many years and Novacyt are truly leading the world with diagnostics support in this area.

This really is a terrific company to be invested in

GLA

With a number of the previous lighthouse labs mothballed its not surprising that due to the testing boom and possible capacity issues in PCR the Leamington Spa site is now finally being opened
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/west-midlands-health-secretary-warwickshire-department-of-health-and-social-care-sajid-javid-b945425.html

Now our promate is a multi platform product supporting all variants of concern. It would be fantastic for us if this leamington Spa site also falls under our supply schedule

Very Nice...

GLA

I actually think Novacyt could be sitting on a major golden nugget here with the new Rapid Saliva Test

Non intrusive, High S&S, low error rate and a certain hit with children and those that don't like swob based tests. Absolute winner and world wide sales due to limited competition could well be substantial.

The great thing about this is that its new revenue on top of all existing lines. Revenues in H2 with the testing boom will already be high on the PCR side, we are so well placed.

And we still have the second gen Antibody test due out shortly that will also add, the R &D and innovation at Novacyt really is exceptional.

Our market cap being this low can't hold for much longer, its ridiculous....

GLA

Pork's

As @Kaeren stated for whatever reason we have never made any impact with sales in France so wont make a jot of difference - we don't sell anything in France. No idea why, the significant delay in getting onto the register as a product that would qualify for government refunds may have been an issue, as other diagnostic providers had got in first and were already supplying before we could.

The move by France to effectively push testing into the private sector and no longer government fund could work in our favour. Maybe an opportunity for our sales team to do some deals and sell product there, who knows?

Where we will see solid growth in my opinion will be USA /Canada, they have just opened Novacyt Inc to address this market, have boots on the ground and creating a sales team of 10 Reps in the states. They have recently secured various government accreditations to sell products and with the testing boom we should secure some decent orders.

Interested to see what they can do and hopeful of something sizable. Its an enormous market compared to 6 or 7 times that of the UK and France put together...

Are government trying to make it look like lots of business for UK industry...????? When in reality its the square route of next to FA business for UK suppliers BUT over £ 3bn went to the Chinese??

Heads should roll over this.

I would want to know EXACTLY who authorised to buy Innova LFT orders from China in the first place, AND more recently, in view of the scandal who gave Orient Gene an LFT order???? Who else was in the tender, how was it evaluated??

The Innova extension was clearly to deplete stocks but again, if FDA were investigating and suggest only good for the trash, we were endangering lives using them??? who decided the extension?

I would also be fully investigating that Lord Bethell, all his bank accounts and business dealings, I would be investigating Matt hanjobs accounts and his bit on the side and here related business interests. The whole situation at DHSC stinks frankly...

@Soder
Would agree, its a tick in the Social Responsibility box but nice gesture.

That's just downloaded bid stats data of contract awards, not what was actually paid out.
They are just awards that could be up to that value
i.e £ 374 m contract to Omega, nothing actually invoiced yet under it.

Now innova on the other hand that's £ 3bn cash on Collection of goods!!! Collect quick or we will sell elsewhere......
Plus all the aviation costs for us to ship back from china.
Talk about #seeyoucoming.com

Sooner they get rid of that other waster at DHSC Lord Bethell of Romford the better.