Member Info for Porky9

3499 @ 343.96
Rude not to at these daft prices
GLA

Thanks @Wilson63
That is interesting
You know i thought at one point Excalibur may have been an ideal acquisition target but all gone quiet on that front recently....

This is going to gap up shortly imo... I continue to add.

The DHSC really couldn't organise a Pi@@ up in a brewery,

Bogus companies spring up to sell "Cheap" tests as that's the direction of the government and then you find they either don't exist or fail to deliver...
Another company reported today by the Guardian:-
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/jul/21/our-government-approved-covid-tests-have-never-arrived

BUT, it turns out that to make that supply list, there are no checks
"providers on the list have merely self-declared they meet minimum standards, and the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) states it does not endorse any of them"

They actually need 660,000 a day when we reach circa 100,000 Infections https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/lifting-covid-rules-in-england-will-overwhelm-testing-capacity

Yesterday 46,558 Infections 427,000 PCR Daily at Monday (data always off from weekend)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
Data out tomorrow will likely confirm about 470,000 however the T & T labs are currently in crisis and cant handle the volumes. Process time increased to 56 hours due to delays. No availability at many sites - Joke.

So Tests moving to NHS directly or Private sector
This data is of course JUST the test and trace data

WE obviously benefit from not just supply Promate to Big labs but direct to the NHS under the frame work deal and also private sector hospitals, private labs and of course the Travel sector. Hence Boom Time for us.

On Current trajectory, we will pass 100,000 infections by 1st September and likely to be significantly higher
We could be looking at more like closer to 1 m PCR tests a day.

And of course that's just the UK, we are supplying world wide

GLA

Government have just published updated guidelines for validation:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/private-coronavirus-covid-19-testing-validation/private-covid-19-testing-validation

* Further validation for "home use"
* Stricter guidelines for LFTs
* No authorisation for emergency use

Otherwise fairly standard issue, probably looking to sift out the weaker applications

@Bluelight
I was thinking the French only know how to sell stock they don't own. I don't think they have grasped yet they can actually buy shares on the bourse :)

@troublesome
I'm fast coming to the same conclusion, you couldn't make it up...

The highly contagious Delta variant takes hold stateside and Joe Biden urged Americans to “please, please get vaccinated”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/19/us-coronavirus-cases-pandemic-vaccines-biden

The number of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths due to Covid-19 have been rising worryingly in recent days, largely driven by outbreaks in parts of the country with low vaccination rates, as officials have been warning of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”.

Good job we have boots on the ground stateside to help support with diagnostic services

This is why we will get a constant wave of variants coming into the UK

We can manage it as long as we can maintain high vaccine rates, stay on top of testing and new variants, we can upgrade the vaccines and we don't get hit by a new variant that can get under the vaccine.

Is it just me being too close to this? Its clear as day to me the situation here and diagnostics is firmly here to stay.

This stock should be absolutely flying, its at the forefront of world leading diagnostics. Yes the death rate is lower, Yes the vaccinations rates are high and help protect us BUT we will need to keep checking for Variants and when someone is "feeling rough" they need to test to see what they have and this remains a world wide problem.

Are people going around with their heads in the sand genuinely believing messages from the government that its all over and that's the end of the matter??? crazy

More than 13 million Australians - about half the population - are in lockdown after a third state imposed restrictions to curb a Delta outbreak.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57911032

When you consider:
Testing>>>>> lock down >>>>Vaccinations>>>>>Testing>>>>>>>Variants>>>>>>>>>Testing>>>>>>>Vaccinations>>>>Testing

Its becoming a never ending cycle. We have to live with the virus and diagnostics and testing is here for life now.

Staying protected, guarding against new variants and with world wide movement the situation is unlikely to change, we will just learn to manage it with vaccines and testing and staying on top of new variants and new outbreaks.

OK, so just talking additional revenues from the pure LFT Antigen Test line, I was doing some number crunching. Interested in others thoughts on this...

To clarify, not the Saliva Tests or the Second Gen Antibody tests which I believe will be massive in own right and make a possible material impact, I am talking just the pure Antigen LFT line here.

Now being realistic the market is fairly swamped with these tests and the price driven down by the Chinese. Not withstanding quality, Innova and Orient Gene manufacture out in China is going to be delivering cheap production for sure hence, why government buying them. This is very much a sell it cheap stack it high product.

Scottish government were recently costing LFTs at a £4 unit price see the following article. I bet this is around what the DHSC have been buying from Innova at.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-202100213204/

So, this is probably circa the sort of price point we are talking for the wholesale cost based on volume?. We also know that manufacturing on average delivers a gross margin of 25% to 35% depending on efficiencies, how smooth production is etc.
So, I estimate that Novacyt are probably looking at about £1.20 ish (mid point) profit margin per unit?

In a previous report I think I recall that capacity for this product line was about 1m of units per week. So very, very rough calculation £ 200m Revenue (50 x £4) EBITDA £ 60m (30% Mid Average) a year. Not sure exactly when this product line will start shipping out but this product line, I estimate could add £100m of revenue and £ 30m of Profit in H2 on top?

Not bad for an additional product line on top of what we are already doing. And a manageable volume that could be dispatched via the existing network and distribution channels. I think to go much above these volumes and revenues they would need to look at partner manufacturers.

Interested to see how this product moves forward.

Pork’s

I think if they can make this social enterprise model work then that’s fantastic.

The business was previously doing about £5m revenue and losing £20m so logically being a charity and giving your tests away for the absolute minimum or free will still come at a cost but the foundation has deep pockets.

They want to concentrate on the low-cost manufacture of diagnostics for tropical illnesses resembling dengue and river blindness initially and if they save one life out in the Congo you could argue its worth it.

The business plan must be thought out and test variation the advantage otherwise rather than the hassle of manufacturing themselves they could just sub to some cheap Chinese manufacturer and get them to do it? If the investment is only £30m its not going to go far

Be interesting to see how this turns out

https://eu.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/07/20/canadian-border-pcr-tests/8033158002/

Border re-opens but EVERYONE crossing American or Canadian must have clear PCR Test irrespective of double vaccination.
Best to stay safe and sure.

@Soder
We know 100% for sure that Cash at Bank to end of 2020 was £ 92m that's a given.
We also know that they repaid £ 7.1m of dept in the year.

In the first 5 months this year they did £ 88m Revenue of which £ 40m was DHSC, as Bluelight commented we don't know when the framework deal kicked in but some if not all of that DHSC invoices has to come to us surely? Then we can assume circa £7m for June. Hence £ 95m in H1 BUT they were only forecasting £ 100m on the year and ex DHSC we are already at £55m on the H1 ex DHSC with an ebitda margin 67%

H2 forecasts have to be revised more bullish in view of a) Increased sales from Promate due to the testing boom and b) the additional product range going live this half.

I am estimating CAB blindly because we just cant know what effect the dispute will have on cash reserves. What i do think is that the goods supplied in H1 to DHSC will end up being paid for 100%, they were using the products and continue to buy, they didn't send them back so when the dust is settled and this dispute over it will materially boost our position.

I would agree with you that if the dispute is settled in our favour it will give our SP a major boost but i still think its possible they could be adding £3m a month CAB in the first half on the current basis hence, my £110m CAB guestimate.

Anyhow, we will know soon enough.

In the meantime, they continue to build the business and we are in a major testing boom period hence, revenues will just get stronger this H2. I am very comfortable invested here as a result

GL

Well sound's like we will know soon enough if the H1 is published before the month end.

If i was putting a flag in the sand, I would say north of £110 million CAB however, we have no clue regarding the set up costs Stateside of Novacyt inc , no idea of R&D costs in H1 or any other provisions.

I am very confident that H2 will materially add to it for sure as i can only see Private sector sales rapidly increasing with the high demand from Travel not to mention NHS framework sales as i suspect they will be running low on Promote shortly. Lets face it Testing volumes are only getting stronger from here for the entire H2 for sure..

GLA

@Shandypants2
Our market cap is just a joke currently.
£ 246m representing a PE Ration of < X 1.83 against peer average of X 15
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

Solid H1 behind us and H2 looking really strong due to current testing boom.
Just a case of waiting,
Remaining very confident
GLA

The testing numbers are just crazy, it's looking like as much as a X 5 increase on current trajectory, X 5 just incredible!!!

I understand stateside now also increasing, having a massive purge on vaccines but take up rates slow in various regions hence why infection rates up again.

Fantastic to be backing Novacyt being part of this journey, Its history in the making. All bases covered PCR, LFT, Saliva and established global network - just loving it.

Very Very confident now with the expected H2 performance, they are sure to exceed forecasts due to the current boom in progress.

The diversification into additional diagnostics also adds to their strength.

Bring it on. Good luck all

@Covid/Vanv
- My earlier posts were NOT a slur on you, so apologies if you took it that way.
- I fully recognise that you are capable of posting 10 posts to my one
- Warren Buffet also said:-
“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.”
I see my money here as an "Investment" i am not trading the highs and lows of Novacyt.
I'm delighted you have banked profits. That's Great.
I am yet to make any profit on this stock but I would point out that i haven't lost any money on this investment either. I haven't sold. Now is not the time to be selling due to the SP being at fire sale levels. I am only buying at this level as i consider it bellow its fundamental value.
Take care now
Pork's

@Kitzie
True and a bit of positive PR at these difficult times.

@Soder
Completely feeling it to, everything just lining up, completely relaxed

@Hopeful
Not going to tempt fate but any moment now i recon. I'm just trying to quietly add more whilst the SP is down at this ridiculously low oversold level. Well perhaps not quietly....

GLA