Member Info for Porky9

You have just got to read this from the LA Times, seriously you couldn't make it up.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-07-28/innova-pasaca-covid-17-antigen-test-british-uk-government

This next week will be interesting specifically after the 2nd as infections following rule changes will likely start showing...

The latest Covid data, published on Wednesday, showed 27,734 people testing positive across the UK – up by 4,000 from a day earlier.

We can expect a further testing boost in the UK from the 16th
Already some professions have been agree since yesterday but all will be included from the 16th.

"When the more relaxed quarantine regime comes in on 16 August, double-jabbed adults identified as close contacts of a person who has tested positive for Covid will no longer have to self-isolate.
Instead they will be advised to take a PCR test. If it returns a positive result, they will be legally obliged to quarantine; if it is negative, they can go about their lives as normal."

Real Life Situation:

Delivery Driver,
Day 1. Driving unloading and dropping off goods. LFT Test (innova) Negative
Day 2. Feeling but groggy but going to work. LFT Test (innova) Negative
Late that day feeling more groggy suspects cold on the way - NOT covid after all Test Negative
Day 3. Going to work. LFT Test (innova) Negative - Phew must be cold coming after all
Late afternoon, feeling really crap. Phone Boss, want to call it a day early, going down with cold of flu thinks
Day 4. Feeling really crap now chest getting tight, late night call ambulance service and taken to Hospital, tested positive covid.
Day 11. Spread to pneumonia on lungs: Dead.

NB. Had given it to wife who managed to recover but was really ill. Don't know about work colleagues or other depot staff during loading/unloading and customer unloads. Visits to shops, local takeaway etc people during the infection period but highly likely was contagious during days 1-3 for sure if not earlier.

@levincoolpal
Fair enough, as you say we need to attract new interest.

The rant was unfounded. The correct response was probably to explain to the poster the difference between a retail outlet and Novacyt, but i guess many just think DYOR correctly.
A good starting place would be the annual report. It details exactly what they do and where they are at. If you are looking to invest here or unsure of what Novacyt do this is a great place to start:-
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Novacyt-AR-2021-2806-spreads.pdf

As for the simply wall street site, it was reported to them but they have no physical client services. The data is totally incorrect, they are going off outdated revenue figures. Its not a site i would use for quick stats on Revenue or PE Ratio or news etc. I would suggest a site such as HL more accurate for data:=-
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

Hope above is more helpful

Fully jabbed travellers from US and EU to skip England quarantine
https://metro.co.uk/2021/07/28/travel-no-quarantine-for-fully-vaccinated-us-and-eu-arrivals-to-england-15002353/
Travellers from the EU and US will still need to take a Covid test pre-departure and a PCR test on the second day after they arrive.

@Wilson63
That was great, I absolutely love Madness:)

oh gawd a village somewhere is missing someone

@Saintsmith
Me throwing hat in the ring;

However, it was 30th July in previous years excepting last year when it was brought forward two weeks. They did confirm before the month end, they have a requirement to publish the half year and on the basis that GM and Mandy only returned back to work after holiday today its likely to be Friday or at very best tomorrow.

From my own point of view i don't need to see a H1 statement, as the data is already know for the H1; its either going to be circa £ 95m in the first half or £ 55m if they write off 100% of the DHSC. Either way they will smash this years revenue estimates.

What we really need to know is how the Saliva and LFT tests are getting on regarding validations and potential pipeline, any visibility on second gen Antibody test, what the position is Novacyt Inc stateside and of course the big elephant in the room; what DHSC are doing regarding the dispute and possible time lines - but this sort of detail will likely follow by separate up date and not with the H1 but you never know.

GLA

Friday 30th July 7.00am

Is there no end to your negativity? The pond has been drained, anyone that wants out is now out and that's why the SP is on the floor but we are now moving forwards.

Shareholders still here and adding are in for the long term, they are not selling at fire sale levels and have the patience and tenacity to support the business whilst expansion continues. This is why shorts are reducing. You can only squeeze it so much. if the SP was marked down 50% tomorrow nobody would sell. The damage has been done.

New investors are now moving in slowly but it takes time. Clarity on forward earnings and the DHSC has prevented some from Investing but that will come. Sentiment will change as events unfold.

I am VERY relaxed here. Personally i don't think you can go far wrong buying in at these levels, that's why i continue to add. The PE Ratio sits at X 1.7 is that going to stand long term? I very much doubt it. Peer average is X 15.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

I can wait and wait as one does....

Good Luck

@Saintsmith
More shocking is the data out that Vaccine efficacy levels are not are good as previously thought AND the levels obviously drop over period (various periods depending on how well your antibody levels hold up) hence the need for boosters:-
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/two-doses-pfizer-astrazeneca-shots-effective-against-delta-variant-study-finds-2021-07-21/

Delta is the dominant variant currently and we are looking at:
Double Jab Pfizer = 88%
Double Jab AZN = 67%
One dose of either is circa 33%

Rest of the world to one side, in the UK not sure how many had the AZN jab but i was one of them. In principle, a third of people double jabbed with it are still at risk of catching Covid you just hope if you do catch it it doesn't kill you off. Certainly all can spread it for sure.

I do wish government would have the brains to switch to Saliva Tests for school children from September.

It really is a simple problem to fix. Spit and Go, high take up rate, no room for error, non invasive and any children that have a positive result keep off school for the day whilst a PCR test result is awaited and send to school the next day if they get the all clear.

All these issues are driven by using cheap ineffective tests from China. Why Gavin Williamson and now Sajid Javid cant work this out is beyond me...

A record 1.13 million children in England were out of school for Covid-19 related reasons towards the end of term, Government figures show:-
https://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/national/19471731.record-1-13-million-children-england-absent-covid-19-related-reasons/

According to reports, the US will not lift any current travel restrictions “at this point” because of concerns about the rapidly spreading Covid-19 Delta variant and rising coronavirus cases in the country.

Travel between the UK and the US has been frozen since March 2020, thanks to a series of presidential proclamations, while the US is on the UK’s amber list of countries, requiring a 10-day quarantine when returning to the UK and two post-arrival PCR tests.
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/travel-news-live-green-list-red-b1891190.html

@Lewis99
Quality - appreciate your research and time invested -thanks

@Jackin36
Have to agree with you.
It would be a most odd situation for Infection rates to miraculously drop by 40% whilst at the same time hospitalisation numbers are rising, it doesn't add up.
More likely imo a) School kids broken up so not testing b) delays at test centres c) high volumes have deleted the NHS AP all clouding the real position hence, we are not seeing a fully accurate picture.
Also, as i say, the impact of the 19 July easing of restrictions won't become become apparent in the case numbers until the week beginning 2 August
Not trying to paint a negative view here just think they may end up reporting a spike in infections in a weeks time.

I guess its all part of how we learn to live with this virus going forward but we need to keep on top of vaccinations and testing for sure, a little more accuracy in number reporting also wouldn't go a miss
GLA

Thailand’s hospitals under pressure as Covid crisis deepens
Doctors forced to treat patients in car parks while others turned away as no beds available:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/thailands-hospitals-under-pressure-as-covid-crisis-deepens

Not sure what support Novacyt offer this region? Thailand's population stands at 69m so slightly bigger market than us here in the UK

A move to daily testing rather than Isolation is the proposal so at least they are being a bit pro-active in expanding testing sites.

Meanwhile, the impact of the 19 July easing of restrictions will not become apparent in the case numbers until the week beginning 2 August so we will know more shortly. Personally i'm not 100% convinced on reported figures, although school kids off for half term maybe helping reduce number but on the reverse why are hospitalisations going up...

My guess Friday 30th for H1 statement

Whenever the SP drifts the chat here turns negative, this at the backdrop of the government telling everyone Covid is over and the infection rates are miraculously falling despite everywhere opening up and restrictions lifted. Well that's fantastic if that's the case.

Then again, if it turns out the schools breaking up, the AP being turned off and/or turned down and delays on testing distorting the true figures then that wouldn't surprise me either. Call me Cynical !! Anyhow, it matters not, the world is a bigger stage than just the UK but i accept currently sentiment plays a part with AIM stocks.

The Fact we need to remain focussed on is the Fundamental value here. They are a Diagnostics group. They are involved in numerous diagnostics verticals its just currently the worldwide market in the covid space, from bioinformatics to different testing, PCR, LFT, Saliva to fungal tests and tests for new variants not to mention the start of the flu season is going to keep Novacyt VERY busy for some time as it is before they need to even look at further diversification.

Tonight you have a business with a market value of £ 233m on a PE Ratio of X 1.7 the call you need to make is, do you think this business has a future and does that future represent a value more or less than £ 233m? When its peers are valued at between X 15 and X 30.

Well i'm not even going to say what i think, regulars here know anyhow !!!

You have the full year figures and you are about to have the H1 confirmed. You will know the profits ex DHSC what they might be doing under the NHS framework, what the new R &D product range roll out might look like and the cash in bank position.

The DHSC issue is a royal pain in the ars@ i grant you, and needs resolving and it will be in good time. We also don't know what acquisition plans they have but for sure they will also add to the business and when they do, Novacyt have a ready made manufacturing side and world wide distribution channels for rapid route to market for maximum impact.

This is a long game, I am VERY relaxed here, they are building a multi million revenue mid cap business and its work in progress. Good luck whatever your call.

Pork's

@dogwilson
"which is why they own much of our industry and not the other way around"

Perhaps GM should get a move on then and just sign the business over to Abbotts in that case. Happy to swop one NCYT Share for one ABT share if it keeps it simple :)