Member Info for Porky9

@Hillseeker
I can only concur with @chrisdr2 your post was brilliant, well thought out and totally reflective of the situation. A brilliant refreshing overview!!

The share price has been in six months of decline and now recovering. Of course, we live in an instant world and retail investors want returns today, traders don’t invest in businesses for growth, they want instant quick wins and as for Shorter’s well they couldn’t care less about the businesses, they just profiteer by adding to other investors misery during down trends.

But true value will come here to those that wait. This is a fantastic world class Diagnostics business in the making. We just need to give them the time to continue building the business and as you say for our investment, patience is indeed all that is needed.

As Warren Buffet said, "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

Never a truer word…

GLA

It is going to be remarkably interesting to see how events unfold over the next few weeks and the governments next move.

IF the Test and Trace labs are struggling now, we are shortly going to be in a whole world of pain as those test numbers climb five-fold as this is the reality we face.

This article in the Inews last week claimed that the average turnaround time increased to 56 hours for a home PCR test with as many as a third waiting more than 2 days.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-testing-capacity-strain-cases-rise-home-test-results-1105546

This is clearly an unacceptable situation. Its more annoying for us here when we know that the entire PCR cycle can be carried out locally in less than 90 mins, but I digress, DHSC has never been a bastion of common sense.

Now we know that one of the issues the government has is that the Leamington Spa mega lab will not be fully functional until the end of the year. Which does not help us now, it only has one line running apparently and as I posted the weekend it has obvious recruitment and staff retention issues. So where to from here?

As I see it, if this situation is not resolved, it will add more flow through to the NHS as people turn up in A&E so what are the choices: -

Re-open the smaller labs, create more mobile centres or cut more deals with the private sector to subcontract the work, the later is what I would be doing in government but probably a mix of the three.

Either way, for Novacyt it is a win win. Promate sales must be absolutely flying currently due to the demand surge. Under the NHS framework deal our supply levels must be up. I recon it must be like a hot line to the regional NHS account managers for replacing testing stocks, no doubt about that and in the private sector through partners like Biograd again demand must be off the scale.

In addition, If businesses in the UK because of test delays end up with constant staffing interruptions, then Versalab sales will also be on the increase as they look for solutions to take control and just bring it in-house to ensure their staff are quickly tested.

And this is just the UK situation…

Anyone that previously though sales would be in decline at Novacyt and it’s all over, can think again. At the current rate I can see H2 exceeding H1 sales and that is without the additional products coming online. It is clear to me that this Testing surge is going to be bigger than the previous one!

And if anything, the UK Is less equipped in some ways now as the foot was taken off the gas, closing labs and facilities on misguided belief that the vaccines would be the silver bullet only to find its far from it.

GLA

“Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.”

Warren Buffett

Absolutely, it's a no brainer....

As a side, ironic isn't it that on the day Bojo wanted to tell us it's "FreeDum Day" his key staff member has gone down with Covid. You would think that alone would cause him to rethink...

Here we go... £ 4.70 range next apparently...

Best cross check with my tea leaves................. yes i can concur, its a great big blue UP arrow and what could be .. a fairly visible number 54 showing... LOL

GLA

My message "likes" on Twitter are increasing. Not that it counts for much.

Other than to say, Lots of new fresh names, clearly retail are starting to wake up to us, this is great, new money going in. Retail can see the correlation between the Testing Boom and Novacyt right in the thick of the supply chain across all bases

Looking REALLY GOOD

Bull Run

Nothing to add... its that simple....

Expecting a few short traders to post, its all over, everyone selling, blah blah but with the state of the testing market , frankly this is going one way now, excepting the few small tweaks along the way.

All you need to do is ADD, sit back and wait it out, here we come.....

GLA

ohhh bless

Happy for any traders to do what they like, ideally sell out now so that on the sustainable rise they are not selling out for more profit. Want to see that go to LTHs who have stuck by this business.

This is the bull run now, you can't stop a rolling waggon and its started... You can play and catch mini waves all day long, then again you can be out and miss the giant wave - all part of the fun...

GLA

little somethings, can become big somethings and with only 72m of shares in issue this can gap up fairly quick.

Money is now moving over to where revenues are being delivered not dreamed about.....

GLA

Share Price due to move materially NORTH

It doesn’t take Einstein to work out that we are now entering a major Testing Boom. Demand is already outstripping supply and volumes are increasing by the day.

Current UK infection rate about 54,000 yesterday, trajectory expected to exceed 200,000 Infections a day by September. 450,000 PCR Tests a day and already capacity issues with more taken up directly in NHS Hospitals as patients flood A&E or pushed into private sector testing.

So, we are talking far north of 1 million PCR Tests a day likely over the coming weeks. That is before Travel and doesn’t include Winterplex testing volume for the flu season.

Testing levels will exceed All Time Highs recorded in January and the SP here will follow.

As part of the £3bn framework deal Promate is in high demand with revenues exceeding forecasts, Novacyt will continue to supply directly. No alternative. Tests are essential.

And all of this is before we add in any additional testing revenues from LFTs, Saliva Testa and the second gen Antibody testing n H2 and this is just the UK position. We are seeing the same situation unfolding in France, Spain and Stateside.
Investors will start buying in once the media start reporting on this and they realise the testing numbers are going sky high by the day… I continue to add.

More confident than ever frankly. When this starts to move it will be big style and that’s because we only have 72m of shares in issue, so it wont take much buying volume to materially move higher.

GLA

Pork’s

Deeks...
https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1416888542974840836

Went on to say "I am sorry if you were expecting that the positive news would be for here in the UK.
But maybe the news that people in our country put their expertise out there for the best purposes ahead of any profit can make up for some of the meanness of the ODA cuts."

So, based on the comments from Mologic it looks like its turning into a not for profit organisation, rebranding and will provide charity and low cost LFT testing in remote locations where they desperately need help but cant afford adequate testing,

Zero impact on us other than the M&A sector may hot up as other companies look to bolster their positions.

Now this is big news for us…

The Leamington spa super lab is only at 10% capacity, only one line out of 12 open. Only 300 staff employed not 1,500.
See: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15627284/massive-covid-testing-lab-10-capacity-delaying-self-isolation/

Also covered by the Torygraph but behind a paywall

I was only saying to a friend yesterday, who in their right mind would want to work at this lab knowing that the government will just get rid of you at the drop of a hat? Much better to be employed elsewhere in the private sector. Staff retention will also be a nightmare.

So why Is this good for us you ask? Well, it means that even more volume will be pushed out to the private sector where we have an increasing market share.

Testing demand off the scale.... amazing....

Not sure that's it, not sure that will make any difference....

Gates is putting n 30m, the two VCs one Foresight Capital and Calculus from what i know are fairly ruthless investors for profit, cant see them doing anything for "Charity" frankly, and what would the buy out value of Mologic be? Not sure if i know enough about Mologic, it was doing about £5m revenue and losing £18m from what i do know, so may as well make it a charity, i guess???

They state " concentrate on the low-cost manufacture of diagnostics for tropical illnesses resembling dengue and river blindness"

Well if they can help some people around the world then great.

Mind you, I think i would prefer to see Gates give free MS office and a computer to school kids from underprivileged backgrounds forced to isolate and work from home.... but of course that will never happen. Much better to keep milking everyone with subscriptions for MS Word and chuck a few million back out here and there to charity.....

BBL
Nigella is making coffee ice cream, need to get up to scratch on my ice cream making skills

Can only go one way.. Investors will quickly realise over the next two weeks i estimate that we are firmly in the next testing boom.

The trajectory illustrates that we are going to exceed the January ATH Testing Numbers just on Infection rates alone. Add to that travel testing, the flu season and we could be as much as three times our previous highs

And that's just the UK, ROW following

From a revenue perspective this business is shipping tests worldwide, proven sales and that's before we add in any unknown revenues from the recently added LFT range, the Saiva Tests and the Antibody Tests.

All bases covered, All countries supplied, All variants detected - This is a leading Diagnostics business

The bulls are quite rightly back in change.

GLA

Deek’s has posted an incredibly positive message.

From our perspective Deek’s is not a fan of LFTs and is VERY pro PCR, so maybe wishful thinking but I think there’s a major decision being made Monday as part of the next phase of the governments plans which may end up favouring PCR in some way????

As a side issue, we were up to 53,000 infections today. On NHS app numerous locations were not available to carry out a PCR test which is simply crazy. And the numbers are on trend to climb three-fold from here so its going to get far worse yet.
Meanwhile, on a personal level my daughter has just gone on short Cruise. She selected an approved private test centre, went to the location and PCR test result clear to her mobile a few hours later.

My point being that the private sector can absorb significant volumes of PCR tests and its in many cases far more efficient service than the way some of our current test and trace locations operate. Things can be done significantly better than they are currently.

I am kind of hoping deal Monday that favours Novacyt – we can but hope….

GLA

@Jackin36
Thanks for your kind words, I think most of us here just get sick of the efforts of those shorting or spread betting against. No matter what the share price they will always tell you “They are interested at a price 20% lower” or expect the price to fall another 20% or whatever irrespective. After a while they just become irrelevant.

Personally, I wouldn’t mind if there was some actual calculation of fundamental value behind a price prediction but there never is. That would be too difficult.

To short ANY stock like this one that is already on the floor at a fire sale value with a PE less than X2 is plain bonkers. There are numerous other more viable targets to go at, this is not one of them.

Currently I remain incredibly positive, homework done, I am greatly confident. As warren Buffet once said: -

“Know what you own and know why you own it.”

Finally, two other famous quotes from Warren I like: -

“Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic.”

And

“Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard.”

The latter quote is how I see it, our share price is currently down but the business is building significantly, its history in the making, so the game is still very much on and its not even half time yet…. It’s a long game and I can wait….

GLA

Clearly some big government move on Testing to be released on Monday.....

Come on make it come Novacyts way....

@Kaeren
Just spotted this on Twitter:-
https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1416384386954579973

@SteveV
You would think that as we fell from the high £7s to £8 range in the afternoon of 9th April when the dreaded news broke of the DHSC dispute that there is every chance that we would bounce right back to that trading range once its resolved. And that's not factoring in everything else going on since.