Member Info for Porky9

@SteveV
Believe we are both on the same page; market now looking at Fundamentals all the way now….. Hype and what could be doesn’t pay the bills:-

Omega’s Financial year end due for report tomorrow. They have been treated just abysmally by the DHSC but we all know how unreliable that customer is!!!
2020 Year Revenue £ 9.8m Loss £ 8.3m
H1 Revenue down to £3.1m, Loss £ 1.29m, Cash At Bank £ 7m
Interested in final figures tomorrow but I’m not expecting annual revenue to come in above £ 8m and it might need a Capital Raise depending on how well it managed Cash reserves in H2
They are still awaiting sizable orders.
Mcap tonight £ 87 million
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/o/omega-diagnostics-group-plc-ord-4p

Avacta’s on the other hand had its full year reported to end of April
2020 Year Revenue £ 3.6m, Loss £ 21.3m, Cash at Bank £ 48m
They are burning circa £ 2m per month and we are in month 7 of the current year so CAB will likely be down to £ 34m and still await any sizable orders
Again treated Abysmally/ overlooked by DHSC , might need a cash raise Q3 next year unless they can secure solid license revenues in this second half.
Mcap tonight £ 321 million
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/a/avacta-group-plc-ordinary-10p

Novacyt meanwhile reported our full year but we have the much discussed DHSC dispute but we are shipping goods worldwide and invoicing private sector.
2020 Year Revenue £ 277m, EBITDA £ 165m, Cash at Bank £ 93m
We are adding about £5m to our cash reserves a month hence Cash at bank likely to be at least £120m by now.
Again treated abysmally by DHSC, but Private sector sales rocketing with the testing boom currently £7m to £10m per month. Awaiting further sizable contract orders.
Mcap tonight £ 249 million
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

Obviously I’m biased towards Novacyt but its an absolute no brainer. Based purely on what orders are physically being secured, invoiced and in the bank and its profitability, a PE of X 1.8 for Novacyt is at best a Joke so I would agree with you that ultimately a re-rate will come.

Time will tell. As a positive i do think with the current Testing Boom all stocks should benefit

Pork’s

Can you catch flu and Covid?

Based on the evidence i would say yes, you would be mighty unlucky but if you can catch two different variants of covid then Covid and influenza sounds possible.

PCR essential so that we know exactly what the patient has in order to treat...

Testing... Testing.... and more Testing.....

Without doubt the shorters and traders had a field day in supporting our share price demise. Now with Jupiter opening a massive short on another stock in our sector and our share price completely cannibalised one can only hope that we can finally move forward.

Interesting article, not sure exactly how accurate but we share certain themes imo:-
https://conscientiouscapitalinsights.com/confessions-of-a-paid-short-or-basher/

Good luck all, onwards and upwards from here

Well the writing is clearly on the wall
Estimate that we will break the UK Testing All Time high by 1st September
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

The increasing infection rates will result in a PCR testing increase in the UK exceeding 660,000 PCR a day plus LFT and Saliva tests in addition.

Similar trends in other world wide locations. From a revenue perspective we should see a significant further boost to revenues during the H2 from the existing network of partners and resellers and that's without any major new contract wins.

GLA

Spit n Go could well become the ideal choice for the School children going back in September.
https://twitter.com/Blad3sharp/status/1414233251930157056/photo/1
Simple to do, next to no room for error, non invasive, high take up rates, fantastic S & S
Await further update from Novacyt in this regard but what a fantastic product addition this is.

With PCR testing levels going through the roof during this testing boom, Its fantastic to be backing a business that has all bases covered. We will soon have additional revenues on top going into H2 from Saliva Tests and the other additions.

Great place to be, Novacyt:
All bases Covered: PRC - LFT - Saliva
All countries Supplied

GLA
PS. England for the Win....

This is a new one.
Apparently the BBC are reporting that a women in Belgium died after catching Covid from TWO different people. One gave her the Alpha variant and the other the Beta Variant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57761343

And its not an isolated case, they highlight other cases where people have been recovering from Covid only to get hit again by a different variant.

Looks like Delta Variant now taking a hold in the Florida region:
https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2021/07/09/florida-covid-19-cases-surge-positivity-rates-up-sharly/

This is without doubt going to result in a worldwide testing boom. As i posted yesterday, if our UK position with high vaccination rates is resulting in a testing increase following delta variant, then I worry for those countries with low vaccination levels.

@hamsters18 @Bluelight
Data to Thursday 8/7 was showing 436,774 PCR against 633,640 Capacity
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
Note: however that this was based on 28,773 Confirmed tested cases
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1412454744065556482/photo/1

At the last Testing peak in January they pushed capacity to 927,000 (ATH) by opening more labs. These have since been mothballed. They closed labs being confident they wouldn't be required (short sighted). The Lighthouse lab in Loughborough for example was closed:-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-56509769
However, I understand they were opening a mega lab in Milton Keynes. The forward planning and "Investment in UK diagnostics" by DHSC has been at best a laughing matter. Expecting it to change maybe? otherwise it will all fall on the private sector

Anyhow, moving onto current day, we went to 32,000 infections on Friday and on current trajectory we should be up to about 45,000+ by "Freedom Day" and general estimates are 100,000 a day by 1st September, imo it will certainly surpass the previous January ATH, especially now all protections are being dropped. This is the trajectory:-
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1413702805412528129/photo/1
In which case PCR testing will rise to north of 660,000 Tests a day for sure:-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/lifting-covid-rules-in-england-will-overwhelm-testing-capacity

I am of the opinion that including Travel, not to mention then Schools from September we will shortly be breaking 1m Tests a day and that's just the UK, Stateside is also in demand !!!

Novacyt can't fail to sell into that through the existing networks and frame work deals. Shooting fish in a barrel comes to mind.... we are in for one hell of a H2 for sure, this is now the start of the second Testing Boom.

GLA and Stay Safe

@ChrisToffer
Thanks for sharing the observation, I didn't make the connection, you are right the UT came in after the bell Thursday night and then reversed Friday morning giving the impression we closed down.

Thought it was Odd as on HL i had secured a top up on Thursday at 351 and the ASK was still 351 today despite closing apparently 3% down:-
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

Makes you wonder if they are trying to get stock in :)

@Mr_Big
According to HL link above the PE Ratio is X 1.86
Agree with you, totally farcical. Peers are in the X15 to X30 range. Not sure how long until this re-rates but ultimately it has to, diagnostics is here to stay, Novacyt is here to stay, an effective cash rating for this business is now no longer appropriate.

We were talking about the massive increase in testing numbers UK despite our very high vaccination rates 50.38% full 2 dose protection (Third Highest in the world) according to our world in data tables.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

We are now seeing a massive rise in infections stateside (Two doses USA 47% / Canada 40%) which was to be expected, so I would imagine Novacyt Inc will be securing decent sized orders out there BUT more concerning are the countries still with low vaccination rates.

Canada is having a perge on getting its population at least one vaccine dose but others are still making barely any impact at all. I was shocked frankly that Australia was as low as 8% and Japan with all their recent Covid issues was still only 16%. Closer to Home France is still only 34% double protected!!

At this rate it is going to take years for global protection levels to be high enough or herd immunity if you believe in that concept, to keep infection levels down.

Diagnostics is here to stay for sure, whilst we want Novacyt to continue its diversification into other testing areas, which its doing fantastically, I am fast coming to the conclusion that the Covid testing vertical will remain vast for some significant years. The UK NHS Frame work arrangement is 4 years, i can well see that extending by years.

Not only do we have to live with this virus, we are going to have to put up with constant Variants and we will need to continue testing and mapping to ensure we stay ahead. Concerning times. Never a truer saying "We are not safe until everyone is safe"

Take Care everyone

If they like Lark Rise, you could always treat them to Bridgerton or perhaps Sandition
Or if they want something more gritty, come to my county for some Peaky Blinders, I understand John Shelby is fairly popular, no idea why, could be the size of his gun :)

Can't deny i didn't see the dispute issue coming nor the phase 2 hold up. Nor did i foresee the prolonged shorting attack.
However, we are re-building again from the base. I consider that the outlook solid for Novacyt from here and i consider we have significant upside in the share price from this position.
We will reach the Share Price destination, they will become a mid cap business, it is just taking us slightly longer.
I can wait.....

@Wilson63
Those are just incredible numbers, thanks
With the PCR infection rate testing, H2 should be superb.
I know what you mean regarding the DHSC contract clauses but as we are supplying directly under the frame work deal now, i cant see how the clauses would now apply? Hope not anyhow... Thanks again
Take Care
Pork's

Good for you, Your going need it...
The roof over at your jam butty mine has collapsed, as expected, but there might be jam in there, then again probably not. So you best get back to mining over there.
As i say, i have no interest in your posts here, non what so ever.
No further reply. Bored with your games.

@Covidoptitwat

Very true, it's all relative...

- If you have invoiced £ 277m of orders and you secure a £ 5m order its not that relevant, nothing to shout about

- If you haven't invoiced ANY business other than say derisory amounts and someone tells you they may add you to their catalog to sell your products in the future, it's something to shout about.

I'm only replying as the market has now closed. Your opinion counts for Jack....

Pork's

NB. For clarity, those not following the NHS supply situation:

A four year framework agreement was put in place which enabled QUALIFIED companies to supply the NHS directly. This was up to £ 3bn Value:-
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W15/748945953

Novacyt have TWO companies Primer Design and Microgen within their group authorised under that frame work to DIRECTLY supply the NHS for a slice of that value. (it is not equal share/ its as per demand)

This means that the Novacyt Sales specialist that works with the hospitals in his region can contact, check on supplies, agree further supply with them WITHOUT further agreement from the DHSC. The deal is already done.

Not sure if this means we could supply them with LFT as well but you never know

GLA

Well done on that Larry - nice one!!!!

I actually emailed Natalie Kenny as i had met her at the Liverpool Lab a few years back but never got the confirmation i was after. This is brilliant, they are a MAJOR provider, you want to see the set up at the Liverpool site, its amazing, not seen the site at Manchester Airport but i bet that's going to get mega busy with Travel taking off.

You know, some business would RNS every given partnership but Novacyt dont, they just crack on and do the business. Be under no illusions here; Biograd a MAJOR test provider, this will be a decent sized contract.

Loving it....

We already know the position to the end of May 21 as it was outlined in the recent RNS
So an extra month doesn't add much more value for those following the business as we already know June is in the £7m to £10m Sales Revenue range.
What's really key now is if the DHSC matter can close off which can't be far off now. Ideally at the £20m cost price of Promate and that's the end of the matter.
As we are going into a Testing Boom and we supply NHS directly under the Framework agreement they are clearly going to need more product, hence a supply agreement more likely.

@Kaeren
Totally agree that Travel is nailed
When you look at the extent and depth of the network of resellers and partners i would go as far as to say that by stealth they must have close to 60 or 70% of the market cornered!!! Just amazing.

If you had asked me in January where growth was in H2 i would have said from the Travel sector . As it stands now, travel is certainly going to contribute but even i didn't expect this second wave and rapid rise in PCR and other testing. Its just crazy.

A heck of a lot of doubters were calling the end of testing due to the vaccines. Slightest bit of any vaccine news and the share price was marked down, it got beyond a joke. Now we find the reality is that its the total opposite. Despite being one of the most vaccinated countries in the world our Testing levels could soon be twice our all time highs!! Same situation unfolding across the globe.

And as an added bonus, markets are finally catching on that this business is delivering and invoicing significant sales. Some amazing contracts secured. This is no Hype business, they just crack on and deliver what they say. It really doesn't get much better than this.

Still shocking that PE Ratio is ridiculous being under X2 but confident the SP will right itself. Investors are starting to move back towards fundamentals rather than chasing rainbows and that's really refreshing to see.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

GLA

Not tempting fate but looking like Shorter's having completely cannibalised our share value over the last six months are finally moving onto more lucrative targets. Hurrah
Just need World Quant to close now and Inject £ 2.5m back in and we are on our way!!

Will today be FOMO Friday?
Would like to see us close well into the 4's today to position us well for next week. Come on Novacyt....
With so much positivity around this business at the moment i don't see why not.

Worldwide Testing Boom Started
404,356 PCR Tests Yesterday in UK back towards January Levels.
660,000 PCR Tests Expected By end of August Plus Travel testing, WOW we could end up DOUBLING all Time Highs at this rate its just Crazy. Then we have our LFT and Saliva Tests volumes on top.

I have never felt more confident invested here. Share Price is sure to catch up with fundamentals, just a matter of time.
Onwards and Upwards
GLA