Member Info for Porky9

Another 3,237 shares taken, these at 3.27, thanks very much...

If MMs are happy to let me take a bit more of a share in this company currently at £ 229m value, i will take it !!

Amazing that ASK is 325 yet on a £ 10k order i had to pay 3.27

All part of the fun i guess

Pork's

I am very happy with the business performance. Lets not lose sight of the great things being achieved here, this is a world class Diagnostics business delivering multi million pound world wide sales!!!

It is the Share price performance that is disappointing, that is all. However, as I say this will change shortly, positive sentiment will return and private investors and funds will start buying again, likewise posts here will increase as new investors take positions.

The share price is depressed but non of the issues are insurmountable they are being resolved. Not sure how long is left on the ADR talks regarding the dispute but if it is within the 120 days set period, which i suspect is the case, then we will likely get an update before the end of this month, so not long to go now.

Anyhow, its onwards and upwards from here. I'm Remaining positive here as always

GLA

@gggg21
Yes, agreed.
We were marked down and some following the DHSC issue. It was over cooked but the problem with NDA's during a negotiation is that by their very nature the market and investors have next to nothing to go on hence can only work on worst case scenario which is where we are now and why the SP is on the floor.

However, the good news is it can only improve from here. The business is doing absolutely superbly at the moment. Also, not only will H2 deliver significantly stronger than H1 with the revenues from both the Travel testing sector and when Winterplex sales kick in plus the additional products the moment the DHSC matter is closed off it should give us an immediate boost.

I remain very confident. its coming together and as you say our peers are doing incredibly well in diagnostics sector, likewise so are Novacyt, our SP isn't reflecting this yet but it will do. I am using this period to add whilst the SP remains farcically low.

GLA

Yes, and so 74% of people infected in Massachusetts had already been vaccinated and that's based on the Delta variant.

Meanwhile, that Variant tearing through Florida is this new Columbian variant and half the state is fully vaccinated. It will be interesting to see the data as it unfolds regarding the percentage fully vaccinated that caught it.

That's why we need to slow down on totally ditching masks. Some people just can't grasp the simple fact that even vaccinated you can still spread the virus to others. I went to my local Spa shop tonight, there was about 8 people in there and and two serving and i was the only one in the shop with a mask on.

@Ad4you
Goes hand in hand with low volume i guess.
But that will change as progress gets updated and new investors come on board and the funds start buying in again.
GLA

@Jackin36
Thanks for your kind comments although, some i think would rather i shut up at times :) I admit I can get a bit carried away but like to keep it positive. This is such a heck of a business its hard not to....

Meanwhile... just read that the US State Florida is having serious Covid issues. Infections and Hospital rates rising, the covid wave hitting Florida is higher than its ever been to date.
See graph compliments of Alexthemuss on Twitter:-
https://twitter.com/TomBossert/status/1421551061286985741/photo/1

Various news agencies reporting including CBS who are obviously right on the scene:-
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-covid-cases-record-high/
"Florida on Friday reported 21,683 new cases of COVID-19 — the most infections in a single day since the start of the pandemic"
That a 50% increase in a week

Population of Florida is circa 19m so call it a third of the size of the UK and Covid spreading at a rapid rate.

According to Tracker the vaccination rate in Florida as at Friday stands at 48.9% so nearly half are vaccinated so it looks on the face of it this is down to a new variant.

Independent did feature an article on Wednesday saying that a new variant from Colombia B.1.621 was responsible for this massive increase:-
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-covid-variant-florida-colombia-b1621-b1893335.html

The variant has gained traction moving up from South Florida as a result of the movement of people:-
"Miami serves as a “gateway” to Latin America, and there’s a lot of international travel between Colombia and Florida"

I guess this comes back to the point we were discussing the other day. If the worldwide vaccination rates don't climb high enough, will could end up with pockets around the world where covid spreads and constantly mutates and with international travel the new variants ultimately end up here.

We need to stay ahead of this and our government stop making cavalier choices regarding not adequately testing certain international arrivals - its not that difficult.

@WBAFC
Totally agree something like that would give us a real boost.

Through the existing network the Saliva Tests should do well once those can start shipping. We should get an update on the CE validation status of that product line anytime soon.

Winterplex is another biggie, the position here as we start to prepare for the flu season and also stateside could seriously add to the numbers. I only learnt the other day that Winterplex is constantly updated due to the changes in the flu virus. Makes sense really, they have to keep updating the flu vaccines due to the latest flu strains hence have to keep updating Winterplex in the same way. This means that you can't sit on old stock you have to order in new batches as each season takes hold.
As such if we have a bad flu season then you can end up with a fairly rapid rush to buy product.

Good job the NHS framework deal is in place as it means Hospitals can just order from the reps directly according to demand and don't need to go through a formal tender process each time.

@Chrisdr2
Very kind of you to say and i equally value your input.
I can 100% guarantee I'm not in anyway paid to post. During lock down, I started researching the company further, initially for a family office I do some work periodically for, who also invest here. Since then, i can't deny I have become somewhat obsessed but its my own time and I share stuff as I find it, after all, I'm trying to build a significant investment position here and as i have previously said, as such, i have a vested interest in the stock doing well.

Meanwhile, just to add further to earlier comments about longevity of the business and the long term effects of Covid and why it will ultimately be seen as a general ongoing diagnostics sector. Guardian tonight write the following article:-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/31/uk-can-expect-thousands-of-covid-deaths-every-year-warn-scientists
Disease will circulate alongside flu and other seasonal viruses and become part of accepted winter illness
"Britain faces the prospect of thousands of annual Covid deaths for years to come, scientists have warned.

They say waves of cases are likely to sweep the country every winter as Covid-19 joins other seasonal viruses, including influenza, in taking its toll of elderly and infirm people. Every year, as cold weather forces people indoors, virus transmission will increase, case numbers will rise, and some of these will result in deaths.

The warning comes as Covid case numbers look likely to stabilise through the summer, but with researchers saying incidence could rise again in autumn as vaccination rates falter and schools return. This could lead to a fourth wave this winter – one that could become an annual occurrence for years to come."

This is a fairly simplistic view but I believe a realistic overview of the situation. Novacyt as a business will continue to support with diagnostics technologies, assays and other tests. It will be a continual driver of revenues for many years to come and the business will be properly rated as an ongoing diagnostics concern including this vertical.

Currently we are on a PE Ratio of under X 1.7 v Peer Average of X 15 to X 30 as such we just need to sit back until ultimately we are rated correctly.

Pork's

@RBMInvest
:)

@WBAFC
I value your thoughts as I know you are significantly invested here so you are more than qualified to comment on GMs short comings, although I don’t share your same viewpoint and thought process here.

GM imo did some exceptional work in taking this business to this level, I have never for one moment found him disingenuous, in fact I would say he is an incredibly honest broker, a brilliant scientist but just out of his depth and inexperienced in corporate communication. With the business expanding at such a rate it had literally outgrown him.

I was personally VERY annoyed after the full year results statement, when he gave a crap forward statement which crashed the share price despite peers in the market commenting positivity about the outlook. I told him so, it felt like it was deliberate action to crash the price, but it wasn’t.

From his perspective, he genuinely was unsure EXACTLY how the year would go but putting a forward statement together is not a science, its an estimate and requires a certain amount of positive spin to keep shareholders and investors on board. He struggled with that. Scientists tend to be black and white, no grey allowed.

He said to me once that the business focus was on delivery, not on hype. He was building the foundations for a significant diagnostics business by ensuring they delivered on performance and create expectations that could be realised. He made it clear to me he never wanted to ramp the business. He said “I know many companies that may have a different philosophy but in my experience hype without substance will always end up in misery” I have quoted this many times and he is right of course; we have seen this in businesses with the opposite view.

However, you do need a balance of the two. At this level you need a CEO to absolutely champion the company and the things they are doing. You need a spokesman to do interviews, to talk to VOX markets and the like, to showcase how great they are. That just wasn’t him. Previously that wasn’t an issue but once you grow to this level and want to sit at top table positive communication comes into play.

His acquisition plan was probably put back because of the DHSC distraction. The timing and wording of some updates was ill considered and hampered by having to write in two languages and satisfy two lots of regulations. That’s why I hope David takes us off the Bourse and quickly.

At the end of the day, the guy is going, the circumstances no longer matter. I personally wish him well he did a lot of good in taking us this far, the business had simply outgrown him as I say. He has a good bonus and pay off so set up for life.

Please don’t think like a short-term trader, if your SP value is currently down for now that will correct itself in time, this is an investment and it will do very well, I remain confident for you.

Onwards and Upwards

GLA

The following document takes some digesting but it’s a thought-provoking document prepared by a group of academics on the possible trajectories for the long-term evolution of SARS-CoV-2.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf

This document was made available by Aris Katzourakis who is a Professor of Evolution and Genomics at Oxford, if you are invested here its worth reading.
https://twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis

It’s a very sobering document. Now I don’t want to create undue fear here, we have a solid vaccine program, and we can adjust to live with this virus but its not going away anytime soon and it will mutate.

The harsh facts are, in my opinion, that unfortunately the rest of the world won’t be able to vaccinate to a high enough level, there will be regions of the world with low vaccination rates and low social responsibility that provide a hot bed for future mutations.

See fully vaccinated figures here. Specifically, the bottom half of the table: -
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=gbr&areas=isr&areas=usa&areas=eue&areas=can&areas=chn&areas=ind&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1

Now, I’m not convinced by the herd immunity argument either. In simplistic terms I see Covid like a nasty version of a flu virus that will keep changing and we will need to keep testing and genomic mapping to ensure we stay on top of it on an ongoing basis, it won’t just vanish.

In terms of Novacyt, I believe that what we will see is, despite the business diversifying into other diagnostics verticals, it has both the R&D capabilities and cash reserves to do so, the work within this covid vertical will continue to be essential and dominant for years to come. The market will ultimately view it as mainstream diagnostics and a respectable PE Ratio to match. Its just not a business to easily replicate and value will continue to build.

Obviously, despite my confidence that Novacyt and the diagnostics sector will boom, and financial rewards will be substantial as a result. Equally, I don’t want to be the richest person in the graveyard either. I have two children, one at university and one going soon so I do fear for future generations.

We must be sensible, take this virus seriously and back businesses and innovations that can help us stay ahead. Concerning times.

Stay Safe

Pork’s

As most regular forum readers know, I remain incredibly bullish regarding this business. I am so bullish that my posts can often be perceived as rampy, and I have even been accused of being a paid poster to hype the business.

The reality is that I’m just an investor that seeks out asset Situations and High growth Opportunities where I consider the share price is below its underlying value, its that simple. With Novacyt we have a real gem here and I can’t help but feel passionate about it’s future. I’m trying hard not to ramp here but by God this company really is phenomenal, and I genuinely think it’s the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

I appreciate it doesn’t feel like this now with the SP on the floor and my £54 SP predictions currently look both ridiculous and unattainable with the SP at this level, but investors need to remember that this is an investment journey we are on, its not yet at the destination and it will get there.

It takes time to build a business and scale and this business is doing an amazing job at that, its R&D capabilities through to product launch to distribution network are world class likewise its Bioinformatics capabilities are in a totally different league to anything else in the market. The company also has exponential growth potential like no other.

The business is yet to be rated properly because its longevity is yet to be proven. Its further hampered by a dispute, it’s had internal board changes and hampered by perception that it’s a one trick covid play and sentiment towards investing here is at rock bottom. But non of this is insurmountable. As these aspects change the SP will start to recover back on its journey.

It’s difficult to appreciate this having taken such a beating recently with the SP decline but I’m treating this as a key investment buying opportunity period. Some think I’m totally bonkers buying and adding to my holding, but may God strike me down if i'm not being honest here, all my buys are 100% genuine, I’m not trading buying and selling this stock. In fact some have been ill timed purchases, i have added in the morning and the SP has dropped in the afternoon!! i have brought at highs and lows but I'm not concerned with daily price fluctuations, I am genuinely accumulating a long term share holding and I intend to keep adding as funds permit. Once the SP is back towards the £10 level shareholders will start to feel a lot more positive about their investments here and anything under £ 10 is going to look cheap!!

For me I can’t find or see a better investment opportunity in the market than Novacyt and that's why i continue to add and discuss my findings here as i have a vested interest in the business continuing to do well .

Good Luck to all, the best of times for this stock is yet to come, I remain absolutely convinced. Now, back to further research and fact finding….

Pork’s

@Jackin36
Thanks, I'm more perceptive than some give me credit for :)
Take Care now
Pork's

Just a quick point, no biggie

Nice to see quality distributors in the network pushing out the products
https://www.victoryscientific.com/eua-approved-covid-19-test-kits

A supporting promotional video as identified by Lewis here earlier today for those that didn't catch it:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPsP6a3soko

Think our new guy could well open some great doors with contacts stateside. The more distributors they can sign the better.

Having had chance to sleep on things i think the change will be good to take this to next level. I think GM has done a great job scaling the business this far, David can build on that great base.

GLA

By George, she's got it!
By George, she's got it!

Now, once again where does it rain?
On the plain! On the plain!
And where's that soggy plain?
In Spain! In Spain!

The rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain!
The rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain!

By George, she's got it!
By George, she's got it!

Soder is doing a little dance, whilst also singing loudly:-
By George, she's got it!
By George........ orrrggge.... orrrrrgeeee .................she's got it!

@Kitzie
yea but its not five to five...
Mind you most of the big stock moves have been after market close, lol
Take Care
Pork's

@CaptainHaddock
Yesterday on AVCt Board where you are a most supportive and valued shareholder and contributor to their threads out wrote:-

“ There were some fantastic posts yesterday evening bringing fresh new news to the board and still they were outnumbered by the trash talk post”

Woul you so kind as to practice same here, stop deramping and posting “trash” otherwise we can all join you at ADVT and point out the many short comings there

@Soder
LOL, i think someone needs a Snickers, nobody died here...
It's the pressure of being a shareholder....
Take care
Pork's

@Jackin
Exactly, the rapid side i was estimating based on the capacity numbers they gave us and the average unit prices could add something like £200m annual revenue so in H2 another £100m, the margins won't be as good as on the PCR side but its a nice added revenue stream though the existing distribution channels.

I think sometimes we take for granted what this business is achieving in sales. Some others in this sector could only dream of Novacyt's revenues. We did £ 277 million of revenue in the last year, with these additional product lines we could well do the same again!!!

@Jackin36
Exactly, totally agree and testing levels are actually at ATH levels on the PCR side.
The travel side take off also materially adding to those numbers PLUS with the changes to the rules on isolation coming into effect from the 17th, i.e you can PCR test rather than isolate following Ap Ping, these numbers are just going to get higher.

The revenues just on the PCR side side will be substantial during H2, add to that the new product lines and we are in for another solid set of figures. Everything to play for here.