Member Info for Porky9

@Wilson63
God yes, it was traded to death and we are where we are. Don't think anyone expected the Q4 DHSC issue either.
However, recent update was VERY positive, recent developments are incredible and the situation will quickly turn.
The fact that World Quant have added to the short over the last few days tells me that they are now desperate to give this a final push down to encourage sellers to help their existing short before all hell breaks loose, and it will.
We only have 71m of shares but look at the volume, its minimal.
SP will turn shortly Starting with a CE mark for Professional and Home use - watch this space.
Also, the next few weeks here are going to get really interesting in the build up to H1 results.
Frustrated as i say like most SH but confident.
GLA

Also, We are still waiting for Black Rock to make their move.
They hold close to 3% at significantly higher averages
Once the outlook is confirmed / DHSC / Accounts / Forward i can see them adding, if nothing else to average their position.
Meanwhile, its the uncertainty that the pond life feed off, that will change very soon
Frustrated like most BUT very confident.
GLA

We will probably find that the two sells on the French exchange at 9.00 and 12.00 are both world Quant adding designed to push the price down
Very few retail are selling this stock imo, volumes are on the floor.
Just need news now to create interest and break out

@troublesome
I did reply but message not showing, could be LSE issues
Didn't update the user name just followed the thread, its clear the poster being referred to
You could be right, he could be a pumper and dumper but i take people at face value. In conversations on twitter he did research and reason his valuations, he wasn't just saying £ 70 tomorrow and i didn't doubt his logic. So for me the jury is out. With these boards a lot of comments are made, you can only decide yourself what is good bad or indifferent
As i say, i don't know this persons reasons but i did value some of the contributions made if it resulted in researching a different angle. Anyhow, witch hunts are out, here's to better times with the Share price
onwards and upwards...
Take care
Pork's

@troublesome
I didn't correct just followed the thread, but we know who the comments refer to.
I don't know, its not really for me to say, I just took the view the poster had their reasons. maybe they were into pump and dump, I just don't know, i just take posters as i find them and ignore if i'm not interested in their comments.
Exchanging messages on twitter, i found their researched reasoning plausible, it wasn't just a case of £70 tomorrow, they had carried out a calculation of sorts against the fundamentals to back up their call. I value that myself but i take the point.

Anyhow, here's to better times...

High potential volumes, in the UK anyhow.

We should have no problems once validated in selling our 1m a week capacity from Microgen.

GM said that revenues from this ADDITIONAL product line will be "Significant" looks like that this will indeed be the case. Question next will be IF its worth ramping up production higher? Product margins wont be as good on this line.

Its great that we have all bases covered. Starting to hot up?

1. Any offer for the business would be subject to DD but imo an interested party couldn't table an indicative offer "Subject to" DD until they knew EXACTLY what the financial position of the business is. Novacyt's financial position will be declared shortly, imo it will be at that point that a move maybe made? Time will tell.

2. In addition to the DHSC dispute over Q4 earnings which materially affected the SP and we await clarity over, the company had previously provided no forward statement and that had the biggest impact on the SP reduction.
Since the recent update we can clearly see that they have a stable of products due to release that will add to revenues. They also have a massive war chest of cash for acquisitions and a move could well be made in that direction. A detailed forward statement is due shortly and that will add to investor confidence and interest in the stock

3. II are still active in the stock. They are in no rush but think about it, if you were Black Rock what would you do? i would let retail get bored and sell out, let the shorters help its decline, even trade a few to support the decline and when the SP is totally on its ars@ move in and buy a bloody big chunk up!!!
Are we at that point yet? I think we are. This is why I'm adding, lets see. Time is the II greatest weapon in buying stocks cheap.

One thing is certain, events here will be know shortly, we are just a few weeks off and as i say, i remain both relaxed and confident about this stock. The SP is down and i believe we are at fire sale values, but its a matter of time before the SP and investor confidence is reflected in the fundamentals

GLA

Pork's

@WBAFC
I really don't buy into that. I have exchanged on twitter with this poster. He has been a massive advocate of the business and averaged up significantly on his position as a number of us have.
The share price has absolutely tanked since January and compounded by all that crap with the DHSC and shorting attacks to drive the price down. Now i can't say what led to his decision to capitulate his holding but i don't believe it was some sinister move. WE can all make a knee jerk decision under pressure especially if a big chunk of your money is gone before your eyes in an instant, we don't know what his personal position is like, he may of needed money for something else you just don't know.
IMO for what its worth, we need advocates for this company at the moment. I'm hopeful that the updates will arrive soon and it will create fresh interest and the stock will ultimately be re-rated. I understand that the poster has since brought back in and i wish them well with the investment going forward, i don't believe for one moment that the posters actions was anything other than solid belief in the business and time running out for the poster before they could materialise a decent ROI. Each to their own i guess.

India is a very tough market to crack because despite how desperate the situation for quality testing they just don't invest money in diagnostics. Its cheap wins the day. In fact they have an active policy of trying to drive down PCR and testing costs and this has just resulted in tests being sold overseas and not sold in the Indian market.
I would go as far as to say that even LFTs would need to be cheap as chips and if they can buy them from china at an even cheaper price they would likely do that.
The only way to unlock this market is if the India Government, rather than spending money on a space program agreed perhaps on a block order at a price point that is viable for international diagnostics firms to supply at.

Meanwhile, markets like Japan, USA and Canada represent the biggest opportunities for sales of goods at viable price points imo. Novacyt only have so much capacity so best to supply where the margins are.

@Bluelight
Totally agree with you
Looked like a desperate attempt to try and push it that bit more and support their current short. When you look at volumes they are so low it hardly looks worth it.
https://www.shortics.com/novacyt
So World Quant now 1.10% Qube .48% so that's 781,000 + 340,800 = 1,121,800 shares short.

Well on a positive note the stock will need buying back to close out. Moment we get some decent news and the SP starts moving that's another 1.1m of buys to add into the mix.

Window to play the stock starting to get smaller by the day...

GLA

Bit over my head that one..
Last time i watched The Avengers it had Joanna Lumley in it as Purdey
LMOL

@Wilson63
Oh, your right, that's 8...
After 7 for a secret never to be told the other 8th one is for ...... £ 54
Take Care :)

@ValJu
Arr yes the broker codes, those 1 markers. Think you sussed it, my encryption came out as :-

1. PD Grants CE mark for LFT for both "Professional" and "Home" use
1. DHSC settle the dispute, apologise and allow Novacyt to invoice for the balance of the minimum order value
1. They confirm they have Secured a Major USA deal
1. The second gen Antibody test accurately confirms exact own antibody levels from vaccine or virus and supports partnership with AZN as part of future Vaccination roll outs.
1. An acquisition is confirmed and a new division created that will benefit from Novacyts distribution channels

It was only 5 of them today. Next time it could be more. 5 for silver, 6 for Gold and 7 for a secret never to be told... :)

GLA

Is that the deal you are on Joker (or whichever account name you use today) by World Quant?

I post because i have a material interest in the SP rising NORTH. I have total confidence in the business and currently viewing this ridiculously low share price level as a time to add and further build out on my position.

I'm obviously not happy that the market cap is at this level, imo it reflects a fire sale value, but we are where we are and there are numerous factors that will quickly change this, some of which we are due to hear about anytime VERY soon. With only 71m of shares in issue and an oversold position thanks to short players it wont take much for this to gap up materially on positive news and it will do.

Good luck what ever your call but for me i continue to hold and add as i can afford

GLA

Just managed to add a few to my sons ISA account for him.
Awaiting the run of updates to start flowing
The war chest of cash for acquisitions must be reaching very significant levels by now, I'm estimating at least £140m, they just need to make some moves now.
Very Confident, all to play for here..
GLA

@Kaeren
Indeed Very worrying
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1391858490696732678

It's a good job we have all bases covered PCR and LFT tests but it will be demand on Pro-mate as we have one of the only tests to detect all known variants that will come into its own here.

Concern is if lockdown is being lifted too quickly. Lets hope not.

Pork's

Todays news was fairly significant but lost in the white noise here:-

We have submitted a tender to supply our Antigen LFT
https://twitter.com/Larry64450205/status/1391722201997525001

This means that CE mark validation is VERY close now as the company would not tender if they couldn't fulfil an order.

To recap; this extra additional product line to our stable as confirmed by GM will include a CE mark for BOTH "Professional" and "Home" use and Microgen have initial capacity for 1 million units per week. The additional revenues will be "Substantial"

News on our position will land shortly. I remain incredibly confident.

GLA

Exciting week this week:

Based on the fact that we are submitting tenders for LFT contracts it sounds like a done deal. Hopefully we can say goodbye to these prices when that news drops

GLA

Leaverage, Leaverage, Leaverage
https://www.thebalancesmb.com/what-is-leverage-393481

So they will have by the end of H1 my best guess on a very pessimistic basis £130m and could be as high as 160m. That is a heck of a lot of buying power.

They are currently debt free. Cash on average can secure you a decent multiple in debt if required. This means that they are in a position to make fairly significant sized acquisitions

I think we can expect a deal soon

GLA

@MacTrader
That's an interesting idea. I'm sure GM must be reviewing all options now regarding how to resolve this issue in the best way going forwards. After the massive fall back in the SP to the £ 7 -£ 8 range GM commented:-

"Junior markets are sentiment led and despite fundamentals can react irrationally. IMO eventually sentiment will catch up with fundamentals. If they don’t then we can leverage these fundamentals in a different way to address the fickle nature of junior markets"

Not totally sure what that could look like but your idea is not a bad one. Possibilities:-
1. The Buy back to reduce Liquidity. Like this however probably better to spend on spend on acquisitions (maybe a bit of both)
2. A move off the Bourse to a bigger more mature market with a greater reach - love this idea
3. Encourage a partner they work closely such as AZN to BUY in and take a chunk of stock and reduce liquidity that way as a long term partner.
4. Once they have the future plan set talk to a major VC and see if they are interested in buying in again to reduce liquidity and support longer term SP growth.

Interesting times.... some good ideas...

Pork's