Member Info for Porky9

According to an article in the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/08/us-coronavirus-vaccine-demand-states-turning-down-doses

They have the take up rate up to 46% but are now struggling to increase take up due to hesitancy over the vaccines:-

"Declining demand for Covid-19 vaccines in the US is causing states across the country to refuse their full allocations of doses from the federal government, despite concerted efforts to raise national take-up rates"

This was picked up during the Novatalk discussion on Friday and will be a contributing factor to a continuing testing requirement.

Meanwhile, over in South Africa stock piles of vaccine were completely wasted as they were not used quick enough and went past their use by date. Again, hesitancy over safety of the vaccine and a blatant outright refusal to be vaccinated.

@MacTrader
For what its worth i have taken the effort to answer a few in French on Twitter. On a positive note the shorts have to be brought back. It would be fantastic if GM could take us off that crappy exchange but as we only have 71m of shares anyhow it wouldn't take much to move the SP material higher if investors started returning here on the AIM side.

Regarding the cash question, SP Angel were forecasting Net Cash € 278.1 m for the 2021 full year. So that's about £ 242m Sterling. We will know for sure when the H1 results are confirmed but even allowing for the DHSC revenue adjustment and not counting any possible cash profits from future substantial LFT deals we must be getting on for north of £150m to £160m to the end of the June half year.

They need to start spending some of this on acquisitions now, that's what we want to see

FAO ShaunP
Would you be so kind as to NOT list the resellers and partners that are selling our tests on this open forum, just say 200 or however many it is please.
If you wish to maintain them on an data file that is your business but we are now moving into a highly competitive phase of tests for travel. New entrants entering the market and if i was a sales rep for any of those i would copy your list and phone each and every one of them offering them discounted deals.
Hence damaging the very business you invest in. Please would you consider this request
Thanks You
Pork's

It's one of hundreds of examples, little point in comparing. I have seen so many now that i have lost count.

There is no logic to our Share Price being this low other than its been shorted and traded to death. Put simply, It does not reflect the true value of the business - simple.

Question is what can be done about it? A move off the Bourse and Aim would be my call frankly however, with so much news and updates due at any moment it should be a matter of time before the values are properly reflected. Uncertainty will be removed at least. Time will tell.

I continue to add with the confidence that the position will change soon. GM must be aware of this situation now and its not good for the business to have a market cap this low especially as they want to make material acquisitions going forward not to mention the fact that GM intends to position the business as a mid cap.

Lets see where we are after the H1, at least we will have full clarity of the businesses full position at that point. I am currently trying to look at the current low share price as a short window buying opportunity. I'm buying into the shorts anyhow confident it will rally on news.

GLA

@troublesome
You are so absolutely right
And of course, Long Covid is something often swept under the carpet but the numbers are increasing and it really is just awful to see anyone suffering with this condition.
These really are challenging times
You take care now
Pork's

The discussion was eye opening to a certain extent.

It was good that Matt HanCo@k was watching as it leaves the Government in no doubt that a layered approach will be required for evermore.

Choices we make will define the outcome but essentially vaccination, testing and screening will remain along with containment in severe break out situations as we learn to live with the virus.

Vaccination > Testing > Social Responsibility

Any notion that LFT will replace PCR is dead in the water as both testing methods are essential.

Vaccination > Even those vaccinated can spread the virus albeit in reduced numbers. The shocking reality that even in the USA after the initial surge of people coming forward wanting the vaccine the take up rate is dropping off due to people NOT wanting to be vaccinated. We are talking nearly half the population and that’s in a considered developed nation, so the Virus and variants will continue to spread and evolve.

Testing > LFT Like raking the lawn for leaves, we need to keep doing it over and over quickly to find as many cases as possible BUT they still need to be then verified by PCR to identify what they are. The more cases identified the more PCR required. PCR is absolutely essential. We need to keep on top of variants especially Variants of Concern as they can undermine the vaccine and may be more contagious as already identified. We need to then support sequencing to stay ahead of the VOCs.

Social Responsibility > Containment would be required in outbreaks. The world is not safe until we are all safe. Those vaccinated can still spread the virus. More people need to come forward for vaccination. If everyone socially distanced, it would help eradicate the virus but that is not a reality hence we have to learn to live with it.

The key take for Novacyt investors is that we have all bases covered for our supply chains with both PCR and LFTs and demand will remain.

Diagnostics is here to stay, and the UK is a WORLD leader. In my considered opinion Novacyt’s diagnostics will continue to evolve as they are ahead of the curve on R&D and as such revenues will continue and become proven and the business ultimately will be re-rated properly as such.

I am pro biased for Novacyt I accept; however, this really is a golden opportunity to hold shares here like no other. The discussion only endorses my belief of the importance of Novacyt on the world stage. As I said before Novacyt is History in the Making.

Soon the market will not ignore the investment opportunity here imo.

GLA

@Bluelight
It did close blue. But it could well have been 5-6% up today without these games.
On a positive, the stock will ultimately need to be brought back and when it does it will help feed a rally
Annoying but wanted to share the position with you.

@Wilson63
Oh I'm expecting a number of the usual posters to try and create miss trust and distraction on Twitter, to support the short, all part of the deal really.

Pork's

@Surfie1961
A number of small private shorters imo did close and the SP was climbing today.

I still stand by the fact that there is little to be gained but they are banking on retail selling and not buying. This is just one shorting firm. I agree with HarChris that we have a number of catalysts that can and will push the SP higher. The sooner they arrive the better.

In the meantime you have four options; 1) Sell out and feed them, 2) Go short yourself and join them but keep one eye open in case they close first and stuff you, a number have taken that call, 3) hold and ignore them or 4) my option buy into their short in the hope others do, news drops and it becomes very expensive for them to close.

At least you know that 4.85 Euro is their in price and that was possible to support a similar level short placed earlier. So its not going to take much next week with news to take them out thats for sure.

Good luck for next week

Pork's

Today the SP was starting to build nicely , climbing steady was about 4.6% up.

I was watching the transaction on the bourse and i noticed a big sell at 15.47 when the bid was at 4.85 Euro. The price dropped immediately after it. See the chart whilst its still live:-
https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/FR0010397232-XPAR

I now find that World Quant increased their short to 1.06 today:-
https://www.shortics.com/novacyt

So they offloaded 184,600 shares and forced the price down

So World Quant are short 1.06 or 752,600 shares
Other are at 0.48% or 340,800 shares

So retail have not been selling today, these b@stards are shorting the stock in the hope that retail follow and sell to support their short.

Not sure what GM can do about this but the sooner we can create some buying activity and blow them out the water the better

Pork's

yes...
Can they give a shout out to Novacyt who sponsor the event and are doing great things to keep the world safe with Assays that pick up these VOCs

Last time we didn't even get a mention..

Low Volume day
More activity on the AIM than the Bourse
Feeling Very Confident
Interested to see what UK government confirm at 5.00 regarding travel.
Hopefully kick start additional revenues from travel testing shortly.
GLA

Well not quite a rally just yet, but slowly gaining traction ahead of the talk.

With the DHSC now having published the spends to the end of December yesterday and of course the election out the way if feels like a chance of an update very shortly on DHSC more likely. The 30 day arbitration period can of course conclude at any point during that time time.

Here's to a VERY positive outcome

GLA

Totally agree
But its a great sign that they are closing
Significantly better gains to be had in Crypto at the moment. If you are going to trade, that's your market at the moment.
Just waiting on Word Quant now to close, that's a big short exposure they have. At the very least i would expect them to reduce exposure here especially at these price levels.
Time will tell
Feeling very positive about the outlook from here
GLA Genuine Holders

@Larry10
Great to see that the major funds are still adding
Further confirmation that this is a business worth investing into for the long term
Thanks for the update
Pork's

Great News for Supporting Shareholders
Shorter's now closing positions:-
https://twitter.com/BurnShortrsBurn/status/1390508128601612292

One swallow doesn't make a summer but its plain obvious that with the SP this low there is not really much more you can milk out of this. We might still get a few chancers but lets be real the damage has been done and there are better targets, little left to gain at this level really.

We closed 2p down tonight, we had about 15p swing during the day if you timed high to low perfectly today (not likely for most) and risk of significant news breaking is now fairly high as we move into a news rich period.

So we can expect a) private shorters to start closing out b) buyers moving in especially in view of big revenues being confirmed and product news and contracts being confirmed and c) World Quant closing, economic madness if they don't they specifically are .80 short that's 568,000 shares short that need buying back. .48 Short from other so that's 340,800 more shares that need buying back and then you have all the individuals out there.

Also the other risk for private shorter's and chancers is IF World Quant move before they do? could get costly very quick.

All further positive news for Long investors.

And we have the discussion today, all positive..

GLA

Confident of a significant Share Price Rally from this point forwards:-

1. The published DHSC contract figures tonight prove revenues will be stronger than we expected
2. I expect the DHSC dispute over Q4 revenues to be concluded especially now they have released their actuals.
3. 2021 Forecasts: Revenue 270.2m / EBITDA 173.0m /Net Cash at Bank 278.1m will be EXCEEDED
4. SIGNIFICANT additional revenues from both additional product lines and surge in tests for Travel

It is just simply not realistic for our Share Price to remain this low and now potentially under the asset values of the business due to shorting and traders.

There is also far to many updates due now that will have a positive effect and further support the share price. As such my call is that we will shortly see the mother of all share price rally's starting.

GLA

So we can expect CE mark for home Use before the end of Q2 which means that even allowing for slippage they will start production and shipping from July 21 at latest.

GM previous confirmation for this specific product line said expected initial production to be 1 m per week. Copy of the company confirming:-
https://twitter.com/gasman2020/status/1390416220839686146

So very rough maths; H2: July to December : 26 weeks, Conservative Unit price £4 : £ 104m Revenue minimum JUST from this one product line in H2. (£208m a year without ramping up production or partner deals)

This is in addition to the 270m Revenue forecast from existing lines and not taking into account potential sales from the Antibody Tests, the second gen Antibody test which identifies vaccine to other antibodies and the big elephant in the room expected significant revenues from the Airport tests and partners as Travel Industry starts to recover.

So in all, we can expect Revenues for 2021 to EXCEED the revenues of 2020 discounting out DHSC which frankly in view of the recent frame work awards indicates to me that they will continue to buy Promate anyhow and moreover; with recent surge testing increases possibly more than we expect!!

2021 is going to deliver a significantly increased revenues that is the bottom line

GLA

Sorry @Wilson63
You beat me to it :)

Great post compliments of Blackbird Invest:-
https://twitter.com/BlackbirdInvest/status/1390377658094075916

I'm in agreement with you guys, once these figures start being declared we should go on the mother of all runs from here.

GLA

Pork's

I'm being flippant

Not gone this far to give up now, I'm still adding but you take my point. The mcap tonight is just plain ridiculous, there is something seriously wrong when its possible that the cash at bank sum could overtake the market cap value.

Talk about oversold and undervalued.

Tomorrow is another day as they say, hope to catch the big discussion, if not will watch on catch up. GLA

Pork's