RE: CEO!12 Mar 2022 18:25
@PM2022
You really have me totally wrong, I have given sound reasoned and balanced argument regarding the position here, i am a shareholder after all. Now we debated this and we have to see how event's unfold that is the bottom line. We have a different view that is all but, long term the investment is sound, I stand by that, these are mere bumps in the road.
Business is bloody hard, it's not all roses and not everything runs to plan. Suzy is doing a terrific job at the backdrop of really challenging economic conditions. Now we still have over two weeks to go so every chance that they can get the deal over the line BUT it could still be delayed for whatever reason, events outside of their control. That's not an insurmountable position but the BOD would need to make provisions for that, it makes logical business sense.
Now my view regarding a need for a placing is quite simply because:
a) Even with the deal over the line they would remain bootstrapped and as such i believe need more working capital anyhow. They have little wriggle room imo. It is only my opinion. You disagree, fine.
b) if they can't get the deal completed then more capital would be essential as they run out of working capital in May, i am not making that up, read the CENKOS report and i don't buy into CENKOS view that the 650k short fall for the 22 year without the deal would be met by bank overdraft. Sorry but Banks are crap, they do little to support small businesses IMO. I put the chances of a bank overdraft that high for Valirx with limited income coming in at next to zero, sorry.
c) In the last presentation they discussed the need for a lab. We discussed it here. Even RB considered 3m to 4m a likely lab cost. As such, IF this is now part of the business plan going forward that cost can only be met from a placing. Unless a curve ball lands like 301 or 401 comes in with a big cash upfront to cover it. Not impossible
So to conclude; my position is that i am 90% sure a placing will happen here. Hence why I'm not adding currently at the moment but will likely support a placing. I could well be totally wrong, its a discussion point.
Next we come onto a placing price; what is a reasonable placing price, IF IT HAPPENS in the current climate:
Firstly, as CENKOS has warrants at 22p in my considered opinion nobody in their right mind would support a placing above 22p knowing the house broker can profit. Not going to happen. Secondly, the last big placing that Nick and Adam supported was at 6p, then further other issues were at 7.5p and some warrants were cashed at 13p was it?
As such, i know you think a placing IF it happened would be high but i don't share that same view. Its bloody tough at the moment. I wont put an estimate on it for fear of being accused of de-ramping but i see it at a significant discount to where we are today especially if its to support working capital should the deal get delayed.
We will all know how events unfold soon enough