Member Info for Porky9

"But 5% of something is better than 100% of nothing"

In normal circumstances possibly, but SH here have taken such a beating, they have been lied to and the new management team come in and sell the prize assets for a token and then expect shareholder support to raise more cash for what exactly? to effectively pay their wages?

You reap what you sow i say, if they don't give a fck about their shareholders why should shareholders give a fck about supporting their final act of greed? KARMA can be a *****.

Good on all the shareholders that voted NO. Hopefully those that shorted this by forward selling shares expecting to buy back cheap on the placement get a royal kicking in the rush to buy back.

Agree that the price move was as a result of two larger buys on an otherwise low volume day

The AGM is on Monday 14th so unless they are about to drop an RNS on us advising that SH will have something extra to vote on in support on Monday no idea.

Hopefully the main event news soon, can't be far off anyhow

GLA

Well David is lining up all his ducks that's for sure

Just waiting now as wait does for that all important update to land, every day a day closer. ...

Fun times..

You know you have to laugh, there is no bloody logic to these markets at times.

I mean here is HE1, which by rights should be absolutely flying today. Lets face it, the west are not going to go near Russian supplies after the Ukraine situation so that’s another 35% capacity lost and those NASA rockets are not going to cool down by themselves LOL

The way things are, this is probably an unpopular post but if the French came in with Total and just said, look we will take over the operation, here is £240m 40p a share and an earn out deal for David, lets just crack and put 44 Rigs up across the entire basin and get that Helium out and flowing.

Worlds Helium Supply crisis solved, two fingers up to the Russians, USA and Europe happy, Shareholders happy.

I think most SH would vote it a done deal

GLA

@Andysel
You are correct and I owe you a sincere apology. I have read the closing statements from CENKOS and the position is:-

DEAL SCENARIO
The proposed TheoremRx licensing deal would bring in approximately £420k upfront and £748k in milestones and service charges in FY22E.

The monthly service deal is USD $10k per month over 24 months which CENKOS report as £175k sterling over 2 years, circa £88k per year

So Revised position on the basis of the Deal Completing and all milestones met this year would reduce the net loss and would leave CAB at the end of this year of £ 94k but not sure if CENKOS have made provision for the two recent new deals one at a cost of 75k and one at a cost of 100k. So you are correct, with the deal complete and milestones met on time they can complete this year still in the black but it will be tight.

NO DEAL SCENARIO
Table 6: Base Case Forecasts Apply
2020 A Operating Expenses (1,662) Operating loss (1,651) Net cash 1,847
2021 E Operating Expenses (1,530) Operating loss (1,530) Net cash 598
2022 E Operating Expenses (1,530) Operating loss (1,530) Net cash (654)

So Base position IF Theo deal does not complete they will end this year forecast with a loss of 654k which they note on page 44 states will be funded by bank overdraft. Again not sure if CENKOS have made provision for the two recent deals totalling 175k they need to fund but even in this position its not insurmountable.

Lets see how events unfold.

Get this deal over the line and then move it forwards BUT I would add that if they are looking for a Lab they will need support for that but it would be a value add

Again my apologies for calling your post into question. Take care

GLA

Anyhow once Suzy delivers confirmation on the Theo deal the position will be materially better. Likewise if bloody Putin can come to his senses
GLA

@Iceman888
Not sold a bloody thing to prove any point
There are 65million shares in issue and many many holders than me.
The entire market is down this is not limited to VAL

@Andysel
I am quoting the figures exactly
The 22 year started Jan 1st, they had 598k estimate at Dec 21CAB
Publish the five year forecast here and apologise
On page 44 they also say the shortfall will be funded via bank overdraft
It’s clear as day

AS discussed on Friday, article out confirms same:-
https://www.rfi.fr/en/sanctions-on-russia-add-to-troubles-facing-global-helium-industry

Russia were expected to supply up to 35% of the worlds Helium requirement's over the next two years. The squeeze on Helium supply was challenging enough before the Ukraine crisis.

Sooner HE1 get this resource on line the better, clearly this asset is becoming more desirable and valuable with each passing day. Meanwhile Helium prices continue to climb

Interesting

Catch up again at the end of the month and see how events have unfolded.
GL, Take care all
Pork's

@Groomer
Fair enough. My conversation is not to create ill feeling. Got the message.
Deal over the line, bank overdraft secured, NO Placing required.
GLA

@Iceman888
OK, no point in me even trying to outline the situation or debate further with you because you are getting personal now which is a shame. I have been investing a good number of years and VERY successful, not blowing my own trumpet but i know the market. I know what i'm doing.

Sorry, but you are totally deluding yourself if you think that VAL will be doing a placing north of 45p. It isn't going to happen. The market would have zero appetite for that. Fantastic if you are right but i cant see it. Think about it, they gifted CENKOS warrants at 22p, no HNW, family office or other would take a chunk of stock at a price above 22p knowing that CENKOS would immediately offload shares just for profit at the anniversary, isn't going to happen.

Even with Theo deal over the line they are scheduled to make a financial loss of £654k to the end of this year. They need the capital to continue activities. I would go as far as to say securing a bank overdraft for a small biotech of £654k would take some doing and not likely so as such I am 99% certain a placing this year is odds on just for cash flow reasons and 100% certain IF they do decide they want to buy a lab.

Lets just agree to differ, see how events unfold here. If you read my posts not at any point do i call into question the talents of Suzy or the long term potential of this business. I am however saying that she needs more support IMO at board level, lessons will be learnt. Its purely commercial, the market is a bloody mess currently and awash with investment opportunities with loads of companies needing funding having just got over dealing with the impact of Covid and now Putin kicking off and that's the backdrop she is faced with and why things take longer.

If a placing came in as low as 10p it really would not surprise me. That's not wishful thinking i own a chunk of stock here, I'm talking a non personal, removing all emotional attachment, outside in view here. Time will tell wont it.

GL

@PM2022 - Yours 16.42
The deal can and will likely conclude and the current mcap for VAL is low, i can't disagree with you on that point.
A line can be drawn then on 201 and move forwards.

Suzy is effectively having to defend a really difficult position, self created I grant you. It's out of her hands and she is totally powerless here and reliant on a TP and she can't control or create alternative options or talk to other parties, due to the exclusive deal signed without any time limits agreed or penalties for missed time lines agreed. We are where we are.

She is only reporting back the information she is being fed. I genuinely feel for her here tbh, she can't bloody win. If the Theo deal is delayed she carries the can for it but there is a BOD here, what was Kevin doing???

Anyhow, Lessons will be learned here for sure. This deal and the CENKOS deal were badly negotiated imo but, its done now. She can't change the past BUT she can change how deals are done in the future.

IF she does ultimately move to a placing, i want to see a strengthening of the Board as i posted earlier, a dam good negotiator added and a couple of industry non execs that can add some value and support for her so that these sort of situations can hopefully be avoided.

She is highly intelligent so without doubt will create a plan B for sure, but as stated there is Still three weeks to go anyhow and this deal will still likely complete then she can focus on the forward plans.

GLA

@jimbogains
Taking your two points into consideration: -

1. We can’t know the effectiveness of 201, its still very early stage but the wider issue is that the stock market is taking a hit thanks to Putin, Biotech’s in general are having a rough time with valuations being hit currently so many of the players are just sitting on their hands, appetite for anything new is currently low. 201 could ultimately be amazing, it just takes time to find the right partner, also some feedback on the Japan partner progress for 301 would be helpful. Maybe they need to advance 201 further themselves and then look to partner it later if TheoremRX doesn’t complete. Personally, I’m still confident based on the information out so far about 201 it just takes time.

2. Suzy has provided total transparency on the business to an exceptional engagement level IMO, we can’t ask for more. The complete report on the financials is issued at Cenkos. Read the report on the research portal: https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal

For those without the time, to sum up:

The cash burn is £350k per quarter fact. Cenkos expect them to reduce this further to £300k however, with the two new projects one at £75k and one at £100k they added this increases cost so I can’t see this happening.

The main Nov 21 report confirms that cash balance to the FY end of December 21 would be just shy of £600k. They expect the TheoremRx on completion to add £420k and a further £748k can be secured from milestone payments during the 2022 year. There is also a token monthly service fee charged to TheoremRx for VALs ongoing support work.

This means that: -

a) IF the TheoremRX deal DOES NOT complete, they will run out of cash in May without a placing.

b) IF the TheormRx deal DOES complete, the business in 2022 is expecting a loss of £654k which CENKOS state funded via Bank Overdraft (page 44) NOT a placing.

Bottom line is that there are still three weeks odd to the long stop date AND 301 could also surprise us yet or 401, so still all to play for. If they do wish to proceed with a Lab, then IMO this has to be funded via a placement. They can not fund a lab likely costing £3-4m without a placing IMO.

See how events unfold

@Iceman888
I can appreciate what you are saying and obviously your average entry price point has a significant bearing on attitude to what would be considered a reasonable placing price.

The whales in here namely Adam and Nick are holding a bulk of stock from 6p so its only lost profit not lost hard earned cash at risk for them if there were a placing at 10p but, not so much fun if you are an investor with an average of 30p so I totally get that But you can only get a placing supported at what the market is prepared to pay.

But we have to look beyond any Share Price volatility in the short term. if the business model is right going forwards, they can still reach the longer-term business goals and the share price will take care of itself. I really have every confidence they will reach them. Also, they only have 65m shares in issue which is still fairly low. If they raised £5m at 10p they would still have only 115m shares in issue.

As for the legacy projects 201, 301, 401 we can’t know how long they will take. We have just seen SNG fall at the final hurdle on a P3 trial, it happens. This is why for me I want to see VAL add at least another 6 projects, I’m not saying let’s take a throwing coconut’s at a shy approach, but frankly the more horses in the race the more chance of one breaking out and we only need one to make that difference.

@PM2022
Suzy will not be hated if they have to secure a placing at discount, its just business. She has zero control over the Theo deal timeline, anyhow as @TDK has commented, still three weeks to go yet to the long stop date.

@Iceman888
You are right to ask difficult questions.
There is a difference between posting a difficult question and someone just posting a negative de-ramp without proper reasoning. ie. those stupid posts that GM keeps posting. Not interested. Just from a bitter and twisted individual.
Nothing in the points raised is unfair. Also, the company will grow and will learn from this. I know that Kevin and Suzy read these boards.

I still hold 400,000 shares here. This company WILL go onto greatness, this is a mere bump in the road. Once they get all the crap out the way and SH have certainty we can build up the SP again. Matter of time.

GLA

Open for debate: -

1. Obvious; A line drawn under TheoremRx. They either deliver or it gets Cut and we move on. If they deliver, then VAL detail EXACTLY what has been agreed full clarity please. By that I also mean the structure of TheormRX, does Kevin own half of that SPV for example? What is the exact deal? IF it cut then fine can they position 201 themselves to secure a phased trial? Engage us.

2. In future, they learn not to enter open ended exclusives. Set periods ONLY to complete a deal. So, they have at least some control of timelines.

3. If they are to release an Update that will likely require much further explanation arrange a “meet the company “session on the same day. Use that platform. Be proactive not reactive. Also, don’t use zoom, all the HNWs I know like their privacy they don’t want to feature on videos. Appreciate Adam did but frankly if I was as handsome as Adam I would probably like to feature in films, let alone zoom videos! I’m not gay but Adam could probably convert me, LOL

4. The picture of Suzy with 8 men was very telling. This is a bio specialising in Women’s health. The BOD lacks women. They also need a bloody good Bio deal negotiator on the board. No point doing the same things and expecting a different result. Recognise your weaknesses and bring people in with those skills. The Theo deal was negotiated badly, and the CENKOS deal was negotiated badly. Time to change.

5. Don’t be taken in by the shiny suits. The business is far too accepting over what they are being told whether that be CENKOS who haven’t found one II yet or Theo on what they will deliver. Time to get smart. I suggest adding two Industry NEDs on the board they can run past ideas with and terms before they go to market with them.

6. Give Suzy some decent share options. She is holding the business together frankly. Take notice Kevin.

7. If you are going to come to us with a placing for this lab then you outline clear details. IE
A) We have an exclusive period of X days to buy a lab which costs X and need a raise for it. This lab will help support future projects and generate contributing revenues of Y
B) We need to bolster working capital by X
C) We are going to add 6 more projects on at c.600k 3 in H1 / 3 in H2 or whatever to grow the business. We want to see growth.
D) This is where we are exactly with the current projects.

Give us a detailed prospectus or full presentation regarding what the raise will do and what it will do for the business and shareholders will support Imo. We just don’t like being in the dark.

There will be other ideas but that’s my hit list, they need to fine tune things imo.

Pork’s

I totally get the frustrations and you can take my post here with a pinch of salt if you like however, I still think ultimately everything will work out fine here, just SP turbulence along the way which hasn’t been helped by Putin. The entire market suffered Friday not just Valirx, but all this will right itself in time hence Suzy’s recent “We are building long term value” comment.

Anyhow, happy to explore this as its the weekend if anyone wants a sensible conversation?

The initial error IMO was rushing to announce the TheoremRx SPV idea before it was ready. A week later Suzy had SH meeting but that was a reaction. The SP was trending beautifully towards 70p at the time. What SH wanted to see Imo was a straightforward deal X business is talking it forward and Y is on the table now and Z will be on future royalties.
What we actually got was we have entered an exclusive to pass 201 to a start up without any money and then two timelines, first the end of December and then long stop end of quarter but there are no guarantees.

Now, it could be that it was the only deal they could do for 201 BUT irrespective they locked out other talks by doing an exclusive. Further, even now I have not seen so much as a prospectus to support investment in the SPV, and I would have likely brought shares in it of it was an open offer. Now maybe its just a case of it being an internal fund and they have it covered. Maybe, there are still three weeks to go until the end of the long stop date and it will still arrive in time, but this is the cause of the anxiety.

Further, there was a change in business direction at the last presentation. Not necessarily a bad thing but the lab concept came out of nowhere and in order to buy a lab they will need to raise funds. This told SH IMO that irrespective of TheoremRx getting over the line or not, there will be a placing.

It was going to be tight anyhow with the TheoremRx deal. The primary reason I didn’t like it was because it still left Valirx bootstrapped and I want to see them grow, add another 7 projects or so and really scale up.

Finally, of course SH are nervous about a potential further placing. The last main Raise in July 20 was at 7.5p. There were Warrants later cashed at 13p and they recently gifted CENKOS warrants at 22p so a placing under the warrant price is Odds on, isn’t it? You are not going to BUY shares higher than a warrant price in a placing for someone to sell for a profit – unless someone has a different opinion?

In time this will all resolve anyhow, even with a placing the SP will start climbing again, its just takes time. I detail what I would like to see next for open debate

Pork's

Oh and lets not forget it was only two days ago that Liberum put out out a BUY recommendation with Analysis at 19p BUY moving to 54p on Success:-
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/975565/helium-one-shares-have-100-upside-according-to-city-broker-liberum-975565.html

So lets not get taken in with a de-ramp post suggesting drilling won't go ahead and the sky is going to fall in. This is NOT the reality. The business today is better placed than its ever been, well funded, the 2D Seismic Data brilliant, we await this coupled with the ERT data And also David just confirmed the published white paper on the region which was an independently prepared thesis:-
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/357750574_The_principles_of_helium_exploration

And further David has confirmed he will update VERY shortly on namely;
* Phase ll seismic results issued with the ERT data.
* MOU rig provider
* What drill * Where drill * Why target * Who with* When Spud
Hopefully JV deal frankly.
So I have no reason to doubt the guy, unless he proves us otherwise.

Finally, the original HE1 based projections were on the historic Helium prices of $280 per million cubic feet estimates, all being well they will secure first discovery and have Helium in full production and supply before there is any chance of Helium prices reducing from $600 pcf which is where prices are now. ie more than twice the original estimates. It is more likely the way supply issues are struggling that Helium prices will continue to rise even further towards $1,000 pcf by the end of 2022 at the current rate and with Russia out the way, that's more business for HE1.

As far as I'm concerned, It's all to play for here frankly. I remain VERY positive

GLA

We can all start a subject title to suit our own investment objective.

No need for de-ramping when markets are down across the board. What i would say however is that HE1 will ultimately benefit from Russian trade restrictions. In fact, Russia was expected to supply up tp 35% of the worlds Helium requirement. Well they can kiss goodbye to that now...

Meanwhile, just like the Germany and the rest of the EU are drawing up plans for alternative energy sources so they are not reliant on Russian energy you can bet your life there are similar plans for where future Helium supplies will come from.

The US is under pressure, supply levels materially down, the demand increasing and the gap needs filling. Sooner David gets this resource online the better if you ask me.

As for general wider market conditions, See how events unfold and hopefully a cease fire and conclusion of the conflict shortly will calm market turbulence.

Meanwhile, out in sunny Tanzania its business as usual. David is on perfect track, lining up all his ducks in a row, we will get that update any moment soon, they have more than enough capital to meet ALL the current requirements, David recently confirmed this so its onwards and upwards.

GLA

@Badsterman
You make a fair point. I can't deny on supporting Nataliya recently on just giving:-
https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/helpyoungpeopleofukraine?utm_id=66&utm_term=WJVkqZPBJ
It really hit home for me. I cried to be honest. Its just awful.
Just imagine if you have to send your children away to a safehouse knowing that you might not see them again.
Even on the Russian side these are young boys, somebody's son, drafted into army conscription without choice, some expecting a hero's welcome. Just makes you think. Has nothing been learned from the past horrors of war?
And as you say a few here exchanging cheap insults about a ruddy share price... not worth talking about.
Take care