Member Info for Porky9

Two very positive things about this business are that it has a VERY loyal shareholder base and secondly a brilliant CEO who is doing her level best to manage shareholder expectations.

Putting the results statement out after hours on Tuesday was a brilliant move IMO and gave investors time to digest and avoid any knee jerk reactions which would have crashed the Share Price.

BUT she’s not out the woods yet, they are practically out of cash runway and that stateside SPV needs to secure its funding before the end of this months AGM. £593k cash at bank Dec 21 and cash burn circa £100k a month burns us out this month. The good news is that it’s not lights out if the money doesn’t arrive this month as they have now created a plan B and can move to a placement the following day which is what happened after the 2020 AGM. I believe this is why we have maintained solid share price stability as that risk has now been completely removed.

I also like the fact that IF they have to move to plan B our pre-emption rights have not been trashed as happens in so many similar situations and we can ADD on the same terms hence I intend to vote yes against all motions for the AGM:-
https://www.valirx.com/sites/default/files/2022-06/Valirx%20plc%20-%20Notice%20of%20AGM%202022.pdf

I would urge all shareholders to Vote yes against all motions if only as an insurance policy.

It will be interesting to see how events unfold. Personally I never liked the concept of the stateside SPV creation but looks like I’m being proved wrong on that one, Suzy remains confident as hell that the SPV will get funded so no placing required.

As I see it, ultimately should be onwards and upwards from here whichever way it goes. Once the dust settles and we have the final clarity I intend to add to my position.

Good luck all.

Pork's

@nomlungu
Cenkos report also suggested they could bridge via Overdraft/ debt.
Not sure myself how realistic that is myself however, its an option especially if the deal is done on 201 before the month is out but they need just short term finance to bridge until funds land.
Lets see what Suzy has to say, not long now.

@OB
Sometimes deals can be run to the wire to try and extract more favourable terms at the last moment. I have been on the receiving end of such a situation. However, I don’t think that’s the case here. Markets are tough and the XBI is significantly down so securing funds is difficult per sae. Most of my Biotech plays have had a rough ride this year.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-XBI/

From an investment perspective, I have no concerns here frankly, long term the outlook is superb. Short term it could be volatile I agree but its not an insurmountable situation.

201 has enormous potential but due to the market conditions in trying to secure a Biotech to take it forwards I think Kevin thought trying to create a stateside SPV was the way to address this. It was possibly the wrong call IMO, but time will tell.

From my perspective, que sera sera, should they get the SPV funded before the month is out, situation sorted. If not, Suzy needs to propose a plan B. Eitherway, she will get my support.

My only request of the business going forward would be to add a decent negotiator to the management team and correct the female to male imbalance on the board. This is women’s health after all. A couple of choice non exec appointments could also be a good call to support and help avoid any poor decisions in the future such as the Cenkos deal but otherwise, they are doing a heck of a lot right. Suzy is an amazing ambassador for this business as far as I’m concerned, this is AIM and these things take time.

Good luck all

PS. @OB You would only get bored in early retirement. Only so many holidays you can take a year. Also believe it or not I also had a cat called puss puss. I remember my sons primary school teacher suggesting they can put their name into google and see who else has the same name. My son did his name, mine, the wife’s and then said shall we try the cat next Dad.. I said NOOOOOO

@PhilGekko
Heck of a lot of Investors and funds sitting on their hands this last year whilst shorting firms have had an absolute field day taking the XBI index right down:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-XBI/

The investing environment is challenging for sure But as history tells us these things have a habit of changing, and when you least expect it. There are some cracking value plays in the index. I consider the investment here sound. Duncan is right to create the additional listing option.

You can't negotiate anything from a weak hand. When Merck come knocking and they will he doesn't want to be in a position where they are the only trick in town and the business will collapse if a deal isn't done. That would be utter madness. By doing what he is doing he creates options and in doing so it a) supports the Oxford Finance conditions so its likely the drawdown event will happen extending the working capital runway into 2023 and b) allows time for potentially Blautix to secure FDA later this year which could result in early licensing deals and c) negotiate milestone payments on the vaccine which i suspect is for review in September hence allows time for that also. Not to mention the milestone work on 0518.

It will be interesting how event's unfold here but there is a lot that can happen over the next six months IMO with alternative capital options before we have to consider an equity raise. If our mcap was a few hundred million a different conversation but its not, its down at 59m, the disconnect on the SP v true value is just ridiculous

A penny share on the AIM, sure we know its a high risk play but the rewards are here when they get it get it right and i have every confidence they will. Some impressive data flowing with more to come.. watch this space

Yes indeed, a very informative Scientific Poster Release:-
Harnessing the Neuromodulatory Effects of Live Biotherapeutic Products (LBPs) Derived from the Gut
Microbiota to Treat Parkinson’s Disease (PD)
https://4dpharmaplc.com/download_file/force/343/311

Terrific Progress @4dpharmaplc and making a difference here will be #gamechanging
Just a waiting game and wait as one does.

Bloody sick of idiots like @Masterblast here that still think its a great use of their time to knock biotech's such as 4D trying to find cures for some of life's most serious issues. Success is a journey not a destination, it takes time, Biotech's need time and without Biotech's like 4D trying to make a difference and investors backing them we would never get anywhere in curing anything.

I continue to back this business

@Masterblast: The SP is down here, damage done, rather than keep pushing your shorting campaign to keep kicking this business when its down, why don't you just FO and do some good somewhere else for a change.

If any shareholder has a question they would like to pose to the Board in advance of the AGM, this should be submitted by email to the Company at ir@4dpharmaplc.com by no later than close of business on 27 June 2022.

All emails submitted to the Company should have in the subject line ‘AGM Question’ and your Investor Code which can be located on your share certificate.

At the moment despite some of the bluster on this forum the company does NOT have the authority until after the AGM votes are in. As such, IF anyone has concerns submit your questions. You have a month to do so.

Meanwhile, some further updates from Duncan would be helpful.

GLA

Only three trading days next week due to the Jubilee
When we return on the following Monday its the 6th June and first week of H2
To keep on schedule we should see a further update before the end of H1 that gives us Mon, Tuesday or Wednesday?
Lets see how it goes
GLA

@Michaelhighbar
Pure speculation and guesswork but it Could be that Duncan is going to accept a milestone payment on the Vaccine in October and as part of that deal is going to issue more stock at discount to Merck. That way funding fully secured for 2023 and Merck increase position to say 10% from 4.6% - wouldn't surprise me.
Merck currently hold 8.3m shares and average £1.10

@Michaelhighbar
Thank you, appreciate that. Not had chance to read it in detail yet until the weekend.
I always like to keep my pre emption rights in full where i can. Bit bloody cheeky dropping that one in. Keeping it at 40% is more than adequate, they don't need to increase to 100%.
Unfortunately, it will be over the heads of most PI and the way the decks stacked they will probably get it over the line anyhow but i will certainly vote NO to resolution 9.
See what happens
Pork's

4D pharma Presents Trial in Progress Poster on Study of MRx0518 in Combination with BAVENCIO® in Patients with Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma at the 2022 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220526005734/en/
Study to assess safety of MRx0518 with BAVENCIO & effect on progression free survival at 6mths
Study sites open for patient enrolment

Well wont tempt fate but we are actually going up on the NASDAQ

Makes a refreshing change

Meanwhile, no idea what we are doing on the AIM, showing almost 5% up earlier and now .6% down yet the SP on L2 has done next to nothing apart from the bid has gone up slightly... talk about manipulation...

15mins to Witching hour...

2.30pmour time NASDAQ starts trading
That's when regular as clockwork the MM's mark our SP down, Lets see what happens today...

Be a refreshing change if they start buying for once rather than shorting....

GLA

OK

Collaborates with Merck on the Vaccine program - Oct 19
hxxps://www.4dpharmaplc.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/4d-pharma-collaborates-msd-live-biotherapeutics-vaccines

So come this October that's 3 years in Collaboration and NO further payment since inception.

Either the program is worth continuing and doing further work on or its not - simple

Its completely under NDA and we don't have a clue regarding success. We do know however that Merck will drop programs if they cant deliver success, the covid vaccine was one example of such.

Meanwhile, they are VERY active in Vaccine research and development:-
hxxps://www.merck.com/stories/vaccine-history/

Now Duncan did kind of hint that the working relationship with Merc was strong, granted we can't take from that the program on vaccines is delivering but if it wasn't imo Merck would have already ditched the program by now. You wouldn't engage further if it didnt work and neither would 4D would you?

I believe we have every chance that this program will get reviewed at that 3yr stage if not before and either Merck will then need to decide the financial implications of continuing to run with it.

My view remains that if its any good, that coupled with the 0518 Keytruda work will result in Merck just acquiring 4D outright. As i keep saying its a no brainer, why keep developing to add value to something that results in you paying more for it another year down the line?

Keytruda is a 15bn a year product, £300m now or less to take 4D out would save Merck money longer term and avoid any other Biotech taking the asset for what is effectively a petty cash transaction.

The only thing i dont get is why it hasn't already happened...

Markets are bloody ugly but we are well oversold here, SP on the floor, volumes low but i wont tempt fate but its looking all all up from here. Positive close stateside makes a refreshing change.

A fund or at the very least a decent family office buying in here and we could start to finally see a material shift north from here, you never know.

See how tomorrow goes, we have been bouncing around the same level the last few days. That FDA update due on Blautix would be a useful boost for us, we could do with at least that one dropping....

GLA

Oh F me, the harbinger of doom has just shown up with his negative pearls of wisdom.

On that note, i will back later much to do. No doubt return to his 30 posts of b@llocks about why he wouldn't invest here, why he sold out and why he feels the constant f'cking need to keep telling us this.

Don't feed the pond life guys, you cant reason with the unreasonable

GLA

Well Duncan still has much to update us on but the presentation slot yesterday did at least highlight some of the salient points which are good for Investors to know.

Won't highlight again as my post 13.01 Tuesday covers it in spades.

I guess you have to make your own calls. Granted buying volume low but equally selling volume low, in fact the market volume per sae isn't great. Markets do have a habit of changing fairly quickly. We have a lot going on here and in very much oversold territory, those that want out have bailed and the deadwood cleared, so it wont take much to move this now from here.

If 4D are getting close to a vaccine milestone payment later this year then Merck would have a choice to make do they pay it or just take the company out? Milestone payment 330m v current market cap 60m - not much to think about is it? If i was Merck i would table a bid now whilst markets are depressed and pick this up on the cheap.

Lets see how events unfold. I genuinely don't think Duncan is concerned about working capital, that's the impression i get, in which case he is certain of a likely event changing the landscape fairly soon. He claims they are funded to Q4, potentially oxford finance on top taking us into 2023 but with so many updates due and milestone events scheduled to land before then, anything could happen and he knows this.

This is just a waiting game now as i see it and i really don't think we are that far off. I remain confident. What is it WB says.. BUY when others are fearful...

GLA

Evening,

Bottom line is that I am still holding in here and remain bullish that, they will deliver, and a discovery will be confirmed. We need this resource online for sure asap. However, if I’m totally honest, I can’t help but feel bloody disappointed by the recent operational update.

Firstly, back at the AGM presentation mid March David had confirmed that they had been doing all these surveys and I don’t know about anyone else but, I got a real impression from David that they had mapped out practically the entire basin, had carried out the ERT and the 2D seismic surveys and had identified multiple possible targets. Now don’t get me wrong it was a bit technically over my head regarding the surveying techniques used but this was the impression I got.

Secondly, he referred that they had identified a potential partner, were flying out to check out a rig, transportation of said rig wouldn’t be an issue as it could be broken down and shipped in parts. I also got the impression that shallow and deep drilling could be a possibility.

At the time I was a bit irritated as I remember thinking, jeeze, they are flying out only now to see this rig, why wasn’t this done before whilst the surveys were being finished?. However, David was saying he was going to be updating us on the when, where and who with shortly and that was what I was waiting for.

So, to now get this update three months later which in effect is saying, we still haven’t sorted, and finalised partner terms and drilling is likely now say mid September start of October as I say is disappointing. Its like nothing has happened for three months. David needs to and can do better than this.

I will see how events unfold. He still has my confidence for now but no more delays. Back in the draw for another four months until any drilling action starts. Annoying that more waiting as wait does is required….

GLA

15min 30 secs
https://journey.ct.events/view/1b1d9586-4f10-44ad-a771-9e2bd4c8b9a2
Finance Most tellingly of all?
Strongest hint yet that funds will come via Vaccine milestones. referenced towards end '22 going into '23
Merck would then have a decision, pay the likely milestone (s) or buy the lot

Comments from posters @Rkapasi and @Devonlad confirm exactly as i see it. Well worth the time to invest into watching the presentation:-

2 things stands out to me: 1) now company speaking on vaccine more openly, claiming both 4D and Merck are happy with work so far and will know later this year into 23 if Merck will take these into clinic 2) Alex sounds optimistic on NSCLC data hoping it will be similar to RCC (company hasn't provided timeline when it will be released but if they release good data in that group should be great for sentiment as more validation and next oxford tranche will be available). John Doyle also briefly appeared restating cash position available into Q4 and additional tranches from Oxford upon certain milestones

DP - over 1200 granted patents. Safety profile is placebo like so they can dose earlier in Parkinson's as they know there are no side effects.
Interesting, Alex said that they have already achieved the primary endpoint in the current trial with 518 in RCC and they are hoping to achieve the same in NSCLC, really pointing that one out! These are also late line therapy patients, those who have stopped responding to Keytruda. Expanding to patients who are primary resistant as well. Bavencio is much earlier setting 'just up and running right now", expect and RNS soon that then!

MRX004 in animals is very strong as anti inflammatory. Really excited in the results, about to start part b in 90 patients, primary end point is ACQ6 and SABA use in more symptomatic patients.

Parkinson's MRX 29 and 05. Both shown to be effective in pre-clinical model. Taking place in early stage Parkinson's patients, primary endpoint is safety, also looking at biomarkers.

Vaccines - Looking forward to how the program develops in the later part of this year, sounds confident.

Factory in Spain can do full production scale, shelf life is 24 months. Did state in the conclusion that Merck are pleased with how well the work has gone.

Tuesdays event could well create interest
Not to mention we are now entering a news rich phase and they have much to update on
See how events unfold
GLA