Member Info for Porky9

@Sonnets
Your analogy of waiting for a date, really made me laugh - brilliant

Lets hope when the date shows up, its not a croc-a-horror-pig, a bloke wearing a frock or something else that you were totally not expecting.

I believe your date will show up, just a question of how late she will be getting ready

GLA

Thanks Aldebaran, or should i say Mystic Meg, appreciate the warning,

Your negative de-ramping message of doom first time on this board is very much appreciated.

Good luck with your short NOT, you and thousands of others shares short will soon need buying back, lets hope you get caught out big time..

Markets can turn very Quick, bounce back just as quick as they fall.

US data tomorrow and Wednesday could also be a massive influencer of direction

Lets see how events unfold shall we

GLA genuine holders

Total disconnect between true value and the SP

Have to say i never expected to see this back at the ATL especially when you consider the extent on the development here, 14 drugs at various stages, some closer to commercialisation, the power of 0518 in relation to Keytruda, the work in other serious verticals, 1500 patents and their full established manufacturing capability. Just crazy.

Shame Duncan is still saying nothing, guess that's the way it is. OVERSOLD, shorted to death and no end to it.

Case of who blinks first i guess, heck of a lot of short stock here, once one starts buying back could well be a rush. Lets see.

GLA

oh without doubt the biotech sector has had a real bashing and capital raising currently is coming at cost in this sector. The index is massively down, its fallen a long way. Can it fall further, not sure, time will tell.

AS it stands he has much to update on and a lot of radio silence for now but the AGM is very soon and that's his chance to provide the detail

@28jazcar
The short exposure is VERY high. It was one of the most shorted stocks. I would put the chance of a short squeeze at about 80/20 , it all needs buying back. Its who blinks first. Also it would not surprise me if the bulk of stock raised in a placing ends up in the hands of an II or Merck and those short don't get chance to cover positions from it..

Will be interesting how events unfold for sure. If i get chance for further discounted shares i will take them but not sure it will go that way yet... will see.

David was doing absolutely brilliantly communicating with us a few months back and now sod all from him.

Come on, potential here is enormous, lets have that update....

@Davemcmanus
"makes you think its deliberate"

Yes, it is a possible risk factor. I hade considered that he could be deliberately not defending the SP with a view to the SP falling further to position it towards an equity backed MBO but i don't really see the point. He has so many share options and so many shares held it would be easier just to agree sale terms with Merck. Even if he sold this for a mere 200m he would be a multi multi millionaire 20 times over...

More likely he will issue a placing and Merck will subscribe as part of that placing. It wouldn't surprise me. We are close to the vaccine update and 0518 updates and others . Inside of 12 mths if not less it will end up as part of Merck anyhow IMO.

14 drugs at various stages in the pipeline, some closer to commercialisation than others, 1500 patents and established full lab and manufacturing capabilites has some value....

I will add big style at the placing if that's the way this goes, in the meantime its been shorted to death and that lot needs buying back at some point. See how it goes.

Market closed so opportunity to discuss openly:-

@PM2022
You wont like this post but no change there, you keep referring to TRx like its some established stateside entity. It is not. It is a start up trying to secure capital.

For all you know Kevin Cox could have got together with Ken Sorensen and they decided they would set up a stateside SPV together to take 201 forward, own a chunk of the share capital each and be trying to raise cash for equity to fill the rest and now struggling to do so. You just don’t know.

Now this might not be the case, I could be way, way off the mark but come on, the entire project has been stealth, no prospectus, we have no idea of how much they are raising, is it one raise, will it need multiple raises to fund future milestone payments, no website, the domain isn’t even registered as far as I can see and this is the BIG elephant in the room that makes me nervous. If I’m nervous so will others. Its blind faith to accept this situation without full disclosure.

They wouldn’t be the first company on the AIM to create a spin off SPV and cream a bit out of that one as part of the deal, would they? Also, I read on this forum that the 10k USD per month fees had not yet been paid since December? Perhaps Suzy can clarify this at the AGM. BUT if that’s true that’s something else that’s not right.

Now once the dust is settled and we have the fully clarity we need, happy days but this is what I and many others don’t like about this SPV situation. We are totally in the dark.

Despite this, I will also highly likely support big style at the point of clarity. I like the pipeline, think Suzy is amazing and the long-term future for VAL is good and that makes it a great long term investment. There are a few additions to the management team I believe they need but otherwise the ingredients are there for a highly successful future. But, personally for me to invest more I’m looking for a good ROI and with the current uncertainty that’s not buying more at 24.5p for me.

I would rather add at 30p with certainty or support a placing at whatever price is agreed also with certainty. Penny shares on the AIM are always high risk. I hold many of them, I like risk but calculated ones. I don’t know enough here about TRx and that needs to change.

Once everything Is clarified and covered off different situation, I will be one of their biggest advocates at that point…

GLA

Totally agree and SH here have been truly rinsed

Of course short positions ultimately need buying back, if Duncan just wants to sit back and do FA to defend the Share Price then the value just tanks and even rising more cash his own investment will be worth FA. That's his call, reap what you sow i guess.

Can't see any holders left capitulating their positions this low, what's the point but the shorters may win some over. I have been adding until recently. Doing nothing anything more now. If it goes completely tits up, sobeit. write off against my capital tax gains bill.

Waiting to see what comes of the AGM. Real shame frankly as they are doing some real good things in some very difficult to treat end of life cancer areas. Not to mention Parkinson's trials just about to kick off. But this is the AIM and investors want quick results and have no qualms about shorting biotechs irrespective of what they are trying to cure. Meanwhile IR are just dire.

Anyhow, it is what it is. Good luck all holders

Pork's

Much of the SP decline has been as a result of shorting, SO fund closing out and **** poor investor relations. Apathetic shareholders. That needs to change. SP on the floor, massive SP to Value disconnect.

AGM fast approaching, I look forward to seeing what Duncan delivers. I still have every confidence. I believe in the future of LBPs as a major next class in medicines and the future of 4D driving this forwards. I still believe ultimately they will become part of Merck even if its only for 0518 to bolster keytruda.

See how events unfold. The negative constant de-ramping here whilst draining does not deter my confidence in the ability for this company to turn the share price situation around. Much still tp come here frankly, we are still on journey.

Good luck all those that hold or buy.. our time in the sun will come

Pork's

PS - We need her to be positive. What's the alternative....
It comes top down...

why NOT put it on??
She is NOT concerned and has a contingency plan if needed
That's the right commercial move

Say what you like about me but i call things as I see them and do my own research unlike some. To chastise her over a positive comment on her Bio is bloody ridiculous

Oh, gee wiz you can’t possibly criticise her for putting “Full of confidence and unconcerned” on her bio. As far as she is concerned and based on the information given to her the stateside SPV is to be funded by the month end. This is what she is going off. As such she is trusting that they will deliver as confirmed. What happens stateside is out of her control.

Meanwhile, as a back up plan she has a placing ready to go the day of the AGM to bring in sufficient capital to a) cover the working capital required going forward and b) raise sufficient funds to buy the lab they need as part of the business plan.
I don’t think shareholders can ask more from her frankly.

Its either going to work out as planned or they adjust the business plan going forwards. This is NOT an insurmountable situation. She is hardly going to write on her Bio “Sh@tting myself and worried sick if this deal doesn’t complete”. She is doing the right thing and has a continency plan as back up if required if time lines are out or she needs a new plan for 201. That's dam good work from a CEO and the right move so that the company is protected in a worst case scenario.

Lets not forget 201 is still a potentially lifechanging /gamechanging product even if they have to find someone else or some other way to advance it forward or it takes a bit longer.

Frankly, I think she is managing shareholder expectations well in difficult circumstances. Certainly, better than Duncan is doing at 4D, she isn’t going radio silent on us, she is communicating with shareholders with an open door policy. I give her full credit for that at least.

See how it goes..

GLA

A good point made by @Jackrussell3:

We're down to 3 possible outcomes: Blautix partner with upfront payment, Merck vaccine payment or takeover. As investors we have to interrogate the facts & decipher what little we know to guide our decisions. Has Merck withdrawn any collaboration with 4D? No. Did Duncan have the look of a man who's quite literally taking the business & his investment to the cliff edge? No.

Lets see what he has to say at the AGM, a heck of a lot to be updated on and radio silence from the company. Time will tell wont it.
GLA

Information is there but many visiting forums don't read it or take the time to find out.
I will take that time to bring it to their attention.
If I'm backing a business i will share what i know and do my best to promote it.
They can ignore that, they can ignore me, matters not.
Catch up again at the AGM

@Webbo
Don't base your investment decisions on what unknown posters post in forums. do your research. Take the time to do it.

What i find incredible here and on other stock boards is that some don't even read the investment background or analyst reports - they may as well just bet on red or black at the bloody casino.

@Novice20
There is far too much speculation about where i invest that's my business and it doesn't matter.
I also have trolls like the idiot earlier, it is what it is. The sang poster on 4D doesn't even own the stock just de-ramps all day bloody long what's the point in that? But i don't care i invest as i see fit. I hold numerous share positions.

I have a vested interest here, i still own 400,000 shares and the AGM is fast approaching. I took my holding up to as high as 1.7m at an average of about 24p. I sold 300,000 at various prices in the 42-45p range and sold 1m at 38p on the day the SPV News landed, it was a total shock to me but that's all in the past So the stock i currently hold i'm practically in for free on. That's business.

Despite that, i really like Valirx, they are trying to make a difference and i like that. The financial climate for biotech's is currently very rough.

I still don't like the stateside SPV concept that hasn't changed, in fact i positively hate it and i would have been far happier with ANY biotech taking 201 forward that was funded. Also, I still don't like the CENKOS arrangement BUT i really like Suzy and frankly she is an amazing ambassador for this business. As such I have to trust her judgement on both of those calls that they were the right decisions for the business irrespective of if i agree or not.

Depending on how events unfold will depend on if i start buying back in or not to add to my position. My opinion is just that, my own opinion.

Lets see how it goes, GLA

@Sang
Why don't you just FO and stop trying to second guess what i do. I have no interest in your negative de-ramps 24/7
I have nothing new to add here and you certainly haven't.

I'm fully invested, I'm fully supportive. I have confidence in Duncan and i await the update at the AGM

Disappointing that the SP has slid 6% or another 2m off the market cap today for no reason. Business is fully funded into Q4 and into 2023 with Oxford finance despite you droning on. I still have confidence this will come good and still adding here!!

There is significant value here, a massive disconnect between that value and the share price which gets wider by the day. Its been shorted to death and there is little investor interest BUT the business will be of value to Merck and ultimately i believe will be acquired by them.

A number of further updates are due and the position could materially change very very quickly.

Waiting to see how events unfold and not concerned.

@PM2022
You have me VERY wrong. My comments are NOT false or miss leading they are what they are. The facts are before you.

I'm an investor and like everyone else here, like this business and invest ultimately a) because they are doing great things and i like biotechs and b) i intend to make a decent ROI on my investment.

CENKOS are not investors. They have agreed a warrant option in lieu of fees. Its that simple. They only need to make 50k to 100k or so to cover their fees anything above that is a bonus. The forecast allows for the CENKOS £858k of money coming in and that will happen.

Your suggestion to withhold on voting until the 11th hour is ridiculous. Now its likely the SPV will be sorted anyhow before the month end but what if its not? are you saying you would vote no in that event? that's just shooting yourself in the foot.

As i see it, if the SPV deal falls apart 201 is still an amazing asset and they will ultimately find another partner to take it forward. starving them of cash to do that is not the answer

@PM2022
IMO it would be wrong of you not to vote Yes on all options should the SPV deal not get funded before the month end. That is NOT the fault of Valirx. Market conditions are dire, these things take time.
I would certainly like to see a prospectus, even a website or something providing greater clarity so i knew exactly how much was being raised and the actual structure of the RX business. How much of it will Valirx directors own? There is a lot i don't know about the deal or the RX business but come the AGM i'm sure we will have greater clarity.

It will be a nightmare of an AGM for Suzy if she cant provide further clarity by then, i'm sure she will. I have every confidence in her.

I am voting YES to all resolutions.

Regarding CENKOS:-
The CENKOS deal was absolutely diabolical and IMO any decent NED would have had the experience to see that and advise the board. They didn’t hence from my perspective Kevin Alexander going I see as a positive. I hope they can bring in some fresh NEDs to bolster the board, they need to.

Yes Kevin Cox and also Martin Lampshire can also do better IMO. I don’t blame Suzy, this is not her forte she is a Scientist she is guided here by the team and was let down IMO on bad advice to do that CENKOS deal. Anyhow we are where we are.

CENKOS are not investors, if the share price is north of 22p in August they will simply cash the warrants in and sell the lot. 3.9m of shares for any profit above 22p. We have to suck that dilution up as shareholders BUT the business gets £858k of working capital as a result so that’s a good thing.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VAL/appointment-of-broker-ekxb0kal4wxgrwd.html

Current Position:-
65m shares in issue 25p market cap £16m
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/valirx-plc-ord-gbp0.001

As for the resolutions:-
https://www.valirx.com/sites/default/files/2022-06/Valirx%20plc%20-%20Notice%20of%20AGM%202022.pdf

Resolution 4:-
I’m saying Yes because its bloody tough out there for Biotech’s to secure funding.

If 20m of New shares 30% are issued to maybe RX or an II at an agreed price that’s understandable as I see it. To offer a further 20m another 30% to existing shareholders on the same terms is brilliant. Yes we would have some dilution but they are giving us EQUAL benefit. I doff my hat to Suzy on that one. It’s the right and decent thing to do. The business would also be well capitalised and could fund the lab which will generate income and I suspect is the primary driver here.

Resolution 5:-
6.5m 10% in Director share options. I am also voting YES to. Suzy should have proper share options and a vested interested in the success of the business. Likewise IF she can secure a decent negotiator or NED with industry experience they may need some in lieu of higher salary costs. Also if they buy a lab maybe they will need to incentivise staff there.
Eitherway it’s a logical step.

That’s how I see it anyhow.

Good Luck all

Pork's