Member Info for Porky9

@ABfste
If they wanted a Lab Business to take over and the cost was £4m, its possible they could fund it part cash/debt or even part equity so its not necessarily the case that they would need to raise 100% cash for it. I would think that they could perhaps get the lab part finance/ commercial mortgage for sure BUT they would need to put some money in and if it has clients pay the goodwill cost in addition.
Again, we need to know the plans which we may hear more about at the AGM
Eitherway, the lab is a good strategic move, i'm pro that and i think any SH here would be also

@PM2022
Do what you like on 4D board, makes no odds.
It is what it is, 4D is out of cash in Q3 unless they agree Oxford finance or get a milestone payment or do a discounted placing which is what will happen. Similar mess to Val only they have 14 drugs in the pipeline, a lab and maufacturing plant and bigger overheads to support. Same principles just bigger numbers.

Anyhow, this is the VAL board to discuss VAL. what i'm saying here is not a bloody de-ramp its a discussion, so don't look at it like that, the company has to make some decisions, Suzy is has hard options before her. This is not a contest race to the bottom which stock will deliver a sh@tter ROI short term for shareholders than the other. i'm saying the entire sector is down. Those Biotechs that need money at the moment are trying to raise cash against awful conditions

She could give us an update on the triple but i cant see that bouncing the SP much this side of the placing, if she can get TRX to advance cash to VAL that could be an option to push back the placing time lines but they are skint members, they cant afford the 10k pcm service fee so i cant see that happening myself but it could?.
Maybe they can secure some debt they could get? but my money is on a share issue, they are looking to pass a resolution to do that so i see it as the most likely option.

There are possible options its not black and white, lets see what she sets out shortly.

@ABfste
I'm using 4m as an average price for a small working lab. Could be less. Not sure what's available in the region but if they want a half decent set up it will cost them imo, especially of they want one with some paying clients already insitu.

@PM2022
I am NOT @southerInvestor

Contact Claire at LSE and ask her. I am known to LSE and i am know to Valirx as i have previously contacted them. Not sure if @southernInvestor has contacted Valirx but Claire at LSE will certainly have our details. I am also a premium account and they have my credit card as ID verification.

Just because the poster shares the same placing view, doesn't make us the same person. I don't agree on all the posters points.

Further, What do you expect here? The company are now out of funds. What are you expecting? Do tell me how they can secure the money to trade beyond the end of this month without a placing?

Debt? what's it going to be secured against? a placing is the right call, they are passing a resolution at the AGM to facilitate this, you tell me how this can be avoided?

Also, a few here seam to think that both Adam and Nick will rush in here like white knights on horse back to chuck more capital at this, well maybe they will support the next placing BUT it’s not a given, they will need to think carefully and terms will need to be attractive for them.

Both have significant exposure here already and the index has lots of other discounted opportunities. Meanwhile, the board are making mistakes. The CENKOS balls up and now allowing TRx situation to drag on without payment. The business needs board additions IMO.

Neither Adam or Nick will know what the TRX situation looks like and frankly if I was going to put say another 400k or 500k in here I would want full clarity. I would want to be 100% sure of the TRX set up and that it was in SH interests. The big issue here is we still have zero clarity and I would want to see that. I hope that Suzy can offer that.

Finally, some dam II support would be useful that would also help our cause. Lets see how events unfold as I say… that’s how I see it

Not long to wait now anyhow

OK @SouthernInvestor
I cant answer your question because I don’t know. I can only give my opinion but its only that, my opinion and others certainly wont agree with me or like it but market conditions are dire.

I still hold stock in VAL because the shares I hold I’m practically in for free on so my risk is massively reduced. As a general rule if I can double my money on an AIM stock I will sell half and leave the rest. That’s how I work.

With VAL despite some of the anti messages here against me and second guesses on how I trade I actually like the business, I like VAL and as far as I’m concerned the future is sound. We just have this short term issue to get over BUT they will get over it and ultimately the SP will recover.

The placing will happen the day after or same day as the AGM IMO and that’s because they have no option. Even if TRX came through now and said today we got agreement from investors and sign the LOI off, they would still need to formalise, collect funds, issue the stock before they could even transfer funds to VAL. Hence imo even if an RNS landed tomorrow saying job done they wouldn’t see the colour of the money until August and that’s probably too late and VAL also need to fund a lab.

In terms of what I think the placing will be at, the resolutions allows for the issue of three tranches of share capital and I think they will issue:-
20m at 12p to Connected parties to generate £2.4m say 2.1m net of costs.
20m at 12p to Private on same terms as above
6.5m will be free issue / held for director options or new board additions which frankly are essential.

By doing the above, that would raise them net £4.2m they will sort out funding for the next year, £1.5m for working capital and they could buy a lab part cash/shares or part debt for probably up to £4m value.

Then should TRx settle they can use those funds on top to advance the business and focus on the other lines PLUS hopefully add 3 or 4 new drugs to pipeline to advance

Should market conditions be more challenging then the placing could be at 10p hence raise net £3.6m or so in total net but 12p is my best estimate which as I say wont make me popular but its what I think.

Lets see how events unfold. See what Suzy has to say at the AGM

GLA

Evening,

Got to wade in here, just can’t help myself

Suzy is doing an amazing job trying to manage shareholder expectations during VERY extremely difficult trading conditions. The entire market is crap. Wake up guys, the XBI is on its ars@ just dam well look at it over the last 12 mths: -
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/XBI/

128 down to 68 and only just today starting to pick up. The entire index has lost more than half its value. Anyone in more than one stock can see this. EVERY Bio stock I own is currently down. Likewise, a number of others on the AIM. If you are investing long term you have to ride it out. Interest rates rising is also bad news for Biotech’s that rely on funding to advance. Its the way it is.

As for Suzy saying “confident and unconcerned” I genuinely believe that she is being told this. Frankly, she needs more support. I appreciate she is the CEO but what is Kevin doing to support her? As for THx has she even met them? This could be something Kevin set up. We just don’t know. I wouldn’t be surprised if she has even been to America? But whatever the case, if THx come through or not, 201 is potentially brilliant. FACT and another home can be found if we need to find one.

So, what are the options. Don’t vote against resolutions, that’s just stupidity. I am voting yes to all of them. Let’s get behind her, she secures the capital, and we move forwards.

I don’t think I can support myself as I think it will be the day of the AGM which is too early for me and I’m out the country most of July, but I will support here and add to my position probably mid/ late August. In time this will just be a bump in the road but the board needs strengthening for sure, and I truly hope she does that once funded following this situation.

Meanwhile, Suzy genuinely cares about this business, some here need to remember that. See how events unfold. GLA

Pork's
PS. Please stop comparing 4D to VAL its a totally different Bio play with different risk profile and different concerns. Nothing to do with events here other than they are both in the same sector which has materially declined.

@PhilGekko
Yes, I'm also still holding and looking to add a few, total madness... who knows...
Bottom of the pond stuff now.

But a heck of a lot of IP and value here for sure and i dont see any problem in them getting say £20m over the line by way of issue of 100m shares at 20p - i can see that happening even if its just a Merck placing. Not to mention an advance from them that could well take them to end of 23 early 24 to then review again in a years time.
In that situation the SP would bounce back sharply.

The company has not gone bust and its IP works, anyone would think from the last two days its was a failed business, its not, it just has cash flow issue before end of this year it needs to solve and i believe it will do. It was a "Ratner " moment for Duncan and worse a dam presentation he didn't need to do...
Anyhow we are where we are...

Good Luck, see how events unfold

not to mention the manufacturing labs, all the IP, patent book and numerous drugs at various stages towards commercialisation.

Well oversold and short positions will need buying back. I will be adding shortly, this looks very bottom fishing now... i think he could get a placing over the line supported by Merck all day long around the 20p level. 100m shares at 20p and give him £20m that would take him to the end of 2023, restore confidence and in that time get Blautix licensed to fund 24 and beyond. Focus then on value from 0518 and the others.

Turnaround play now, oversold, over shorted and over killed..

@Iceman
Glad you have that rule NOW it will bode you well

Let’s see how the AGM goes and take it from there.

GLA

PS. The sell was not mine. There are a lot of shares in issue, every transaction is not always me is it

I would say he was distracted, maybe been involved in some other matters beforehand and just ill prepared for the presentation.

This is why I go back to wondering if he was expecting to update us on something which is why he scheduled the meeting but the time lines were out and they couldn’t do it in the end,

There was a pure disconnect between what he thought important to shareholders and what we are all thinking, I suspect he doesn’t read any of the boards, possibly due to the high volumes of posts from shorter’s he just doesn’t follow them and his focus was on the wrong aspects.

Its like when he mentioned pay rises and an independent panel as justification for a pay rise. It was like the sort of crap a politician would say when they take a massive pay rise when everyone is cutting back. It didn’t need going over again, its done now but he wasted time reminding us of this poor decision which just p@ssed shareholders off and there was nothing to counter balance against with any positivity.

In all it really was his “Ratner Moment” you just couldn’t make it up.

Bloody shame really because they are doing so many other things right, there is a heck of a lot to be positive about but its lost in the negativity. The market cap now an absolute joke. Buying down here a no brainer but sentiment rock bottom and lets face it shares on the aim are all sentiment driven half the time.

Share price fell by far more than I expected to be honest, to lose a third of our value was incredible, first time I have seen a stock fall this much on a no news event that didn’t need doing, really going it some, not least added to by shorts that will need buying back but I hope he learns from this. Lets get the AGM out the way and move forwards. Crazy times.

Could do with that FDA update or something positive landing to balance things up now, it will come.

GLA those still here…

@PM2022
Hey look we are both on the same side here. I can take it as I'm an old pig....I have been around a bit.

I like this business, I like Suzy, Yes i made some money on a previous trade here but i still hold a block and whilst my timing might not be ideal i intend to ADD here significantly later this year. So watch this space. You will know when i do as i will join your ramp-a-thon to help create more noise. Its all positive.

Also, I have some deals completing in my business world and i will soon have increased liquidity but i also have a number of other AIM plays to support. Yes my 4D investment and stock in this one not doing so well at the moment but they will both come good in time. My investment in HE1 not doing great either its just how it is. The market conditions not great, who could predict covid, a war and now a possible recession but i think come last Quarter of this year, Sept onwards we will see major improvements. The bio sector is on the floor, it cant get much worse can it????

Anyhow, this is the VAL board and good luck all here, we get the placing done and get the lab moving forward and 2023 will be a great year imo its going to happen. Long term future I am VERY positive about.

Pork's

@Andysel
Totally agree with you, this board is to discuss VAL

I recommend that we propose PM2022 for the new post of "Sex Director" when we want his fck*ing advice we can ask for it.

GLA

To crash the company today by a third of its value was going some i grant you. indeed on par with Gerald, good analogy.

There was actually ZERO point to Duncan doing the presentation today if he had nothing to say, on reflection i really don't see the point. Don't know why he did it. May just as well wait until the AGM. What was he thinking??? was he expecting news prior to today? just don't get it...

He said absolutely nothing and just ducked all the questions that needed answering; how long is the vaccine program over, when will we know milestones are met, what is the position with Oxford Finance, how is the FDA progressing, how much cash runway do we have exactly, how much capital to get us to the next stage, etc etc. just said nothing. I'm shocked he thought that was acceptable.

Do you think he is trying to take this private on the cheap with an equity backed private equity deal and working hard to crash the price to support that???

If he said, we are going to raise £20m by way of 100m new shares at 20p at least we would have some dam clarity. We could understand that but to say nothing, just shocking,,,

So now we have a disconnection between the SP and the true value of the business and today an additional disconnect between the CEO and how to manage private investor expectations. Total Farce.

I'm still holding, see how events unfold but today was not Duncan's finest hour that's for sure

GLA anyone left.....

advice to give,,,

just got to ride the storm out, none of my bio plays are doing well currently frankly...

Come September i think the outlook will be materially better all around.

VAL will do well just needs more time

GLA

@PM2022
I agreed not to comment here with you until after the AGM so stop insulting me please as there are many aspects here that need sorting out that's for sure. People in glass houses and all that...

The situation at 4D is that they are funded until into Q4 and possibly Q1 with finance however, the market is still smashing the hell out of the SP plus its being shorted as no clarity yet on what funding they do.

Meanwhile VAL are already out of funds and the SP is holding up well despite that... for now. The VAL placing will likely be the day after the AGM or same day IMO, question is at what price?

I own shares in both plays. GLA

Pork's

i am long and always have been

@PhilGekko
I'm trying to work out in my head why he scheduled this meeting.... he didn't need to do anything or say anything until the AGM.

He didn't confirm anything we didn't already know and the shorters have had a field day feeding and creating more FUD to drive the SP down.

Do you think he expected an update on something maybe but the timing was out and he couldn't update as he originally expected in the end??

Most odd situation

Well there is great value in the business its just not reflected in the Share Price.

From a SH perspective we would do far better if the entire business was sold to Merck even at paltry offer of 200m we would get fives time return on where we are today, the Share price has been totally decimated.

Todays SP action is possibly OTT knee jerk reaction but even so, reflects true feeling of investors, I think many expected some clarity today having waited many weeks and we didn't get that.

They still need to add the QA section to meet the company so should be further update on there shortly. See how events unfold. A clear message has been sent today that's for sure...

He has not really covered off finance other than to confirm the NASDAQ filing facility at 150m ready to go.

I posted two questions about Oxford Finance and the Financial runway. He is clearly not in any hurry to raise capital until markets improve.

As i see it despite some of the crap posted here depending on the Oxford Finance situation and assuming no curved balls hit this like an early licensing sale of Blautix or a Vaccine milestone payment comes in he has about 6 mths runway to the year end to do that placing. I wanted to know about Oxford as i thought if he covered just that aspect off it would confirm we were ok into end of Q1 2023 giving us a bit more breathing room.

Either that or he sells the IP, patent book, the manufacturing plant and labs for best price to Merck or any other interested party.

Share price currently a farce and no change there. Cheap as chips at this level but if investors are not buying he reaps what he sows. Shares in bottom draw now not selling down here. He has to make his move shortly, see how events unfold.