Member Info for Porky9

@iceman888
Well frankly your post is just amazing and it got 17 likes... incredible, completely delusional but you genuinely believe that and others here agree with you and your chain of thought. I find that incredible in itself when CENKOS have issued the complete report available to read, Suzy has published the annual results now and has now confirmed that THX cant complete by the extra extended timeline.

I have zero interest, I am contributing to the discussion because Suzy confirmed this on Friday. It is right for shareholders to properly discuss this here, we should explore good or bad the best way forward and what the options are. We have an AGM and what you are doing @Iceman888 is putting your head in the sand.

Not sure what part you are not grasping, it doesn't matter if THX are raising a trillion dollars the fact is it is not going to be funded by 30/6. This means they don't have the capital to trade and have no option but to proceed with the placing and my call is it will be same day as the AGM or the next day, as that makes logical sense once the resolutions are past.

Can't say if i will take part in that placing yet, if its next week it wont fit with my own financial timelines. If i get an opportunity later to add i will consider it then if the terms are right but i need much more information than i currently have. A placing at 20p does not excite me knowing CENKOS have warrants at 22p and my call is the placement will be lower.

As for Adam joining as a NED he might not have the time or want the role and we don't know if he has been offered the role either although it makes sound logic. BUT don't take the guy for granted or Nick for that matter, they should not have to keep propping Val up with more cash, they both have a big exposure here already and the board are making commercial mistakes. Also there are lots of other less risky opportunities on the market and terms of the placement would need to be attractive IMO to encourage them to support.

In view of the recs you got i will not post now until after the AGM, good luck to you, lets see how events unfold

Pork's

@ABftse
THX do not exist, this is the issue, they are a start up. A new Stateside SPV attempting to secure funding without any commercial history. Meanwhile trying to raise funds in extremely difficult conditions and having to compete with other established biotech's also looking for funding.

If they are raising funds on a stateside market there would be an IPO offering of sorts with a prospectus IMO and possibly a chance for us even to support the raise.

If its going to be a non listed company that is trying to raise capital from private HMW Individuals and family offices etc then over the course of 9 mths i would want to know why its not complete. Frankly, In that time I could bloody crowd fund it, its ridiculous

I await to see the details. Suzy needs to put her cards on the table and have an honest and open discussion with us with full disclose.

The only positive is she will get her placement funded. But they must learn from this and make the changes to prevent similar issues on other pipeline candidates going forwards

According to the Cenkos Report, based on the signed LOI on completion of funding, the sub license deal would be agreed, and the near-term milestones would generate VAL $2.2m USD over two years. In addition, the service agreement commenced 1/11/21 and the service fees would generate 10k USD per month to VAL

In reality VAL have done all the service work since 1/11/21 and TRX have not paid a bean.

The business had £593k CAB to the end of Dec 21. The cash burn for this Biotech is £105k a month. It simply cannot afford to be doing service work for which it is not paid. No other business would put up with this and I must question why?

What also annoys me is that they have allowed this to go to the wire to 30.6 at a point where they are now completely out of funds and boxed in putting shareholders in a position where they must support what is now an emergency placement to continue trading to cover overheads in July.

The alternative would be debt finance but as they have no income or guarantees that is unlikely.

In round figures VAL need £1.25m a year for running costs maintaining a lean operation and the only positive bone they can throw us is IF the TRx outfit gets funded in the next whatever extended period they now grant, they will get an immediate payment of £420k and I presume they will pay the service bill they have not paid us. They will also get £1.2m over the next two years. Are VAL going to continue the service agreement for no payment whilst we wait?

The big issue as I see it is, we don’t know what Cash TRX are actually trying to raise, we don’t know if this farce will continue when it comes to further stage payments. We need full disclosure and I’m not buying confidentiality; we are passed that now; we should at least know by now how much they are trying to raise so we know the chances of future milestone payments being met. Over 9mths they should have at least a prospectus available?

My problem I think is that I’m biased because I never liked this SPV concept in the first place and the more this goes on the more I dislike it. What were Kevin and Suzy thinking here??? Working to form a start up that has no product to commercialisation success history and now they have taken us to the wire, at a risk of us going out of business, its just not on frankly.

If as shareholders we are going to be hit with 70% dilution next week, I want the board bolstered as previous posts plus new pipeline additions. The legacy drugs need sorting out and if that means looking for a new home for 201 sobeit. I recall we had this drug initially from Cancer research. It is a dam excellent product with massive potential, it deserves better than this.

See how next week goes.

Pork's

I don’t agree with calls for Suzy to resign. I actually think she is one of the best things about VAL and a dam good ambassador for the business and good scientist. What she needs is stronger support to avoid these kind of balls ups in the future (Cenkos Terms/ Rx Terms).

It’s well possible she is scientifically brilliant but commercially naïve. As such you add the skills to the business where your gaps are.

As I posted earlier, solutions in women's oncology yet she is the ONLY female in the business, we need to redress the balance. We need a dam good negotiator appointed perhaps they should appoint a “Research Contracts Director” or similar such role to the board to support her and I would appoint say THREE industry experienced non exec directors. Another guy to replace Kevin A and TWO female NEDS from the sector.

@Viera suggestion earlier for Adam to join the board is a bloody good call. Not sure if Adam would have time to do the job or want to BUT if he was able to allocate a few hours a month Adam being involved in say a monthly update meeting, create a new panel where they discuss all progress, he could really help steer them in the right direction. Adam for a NED position I agree. Likewise additional strategic NED advice and support essential.

We cant change the past but doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome is a sign of madness. We are where we are with the legacy products and I agree the 201 and the 301 contracts also need a new urgent review.

Draw a line under it with Japan for 301.If they cant advance it then move it someone that can or call it a day. We must accept that not all drugs can be a success.

As for 201 its been 9mths, lets see full disclosure of the prospectus and understand exactly what they are trying to raise during this time and where and the structure of Rx. If I got one whiff of that SPV being born out of a way to transfer partial ownership to Kevin C or other individuals I would join the call for resignations. At the moment benefit of the doubt and
all that but anyone can do free and that must stop. The fees need collecting and Valirx need to get more commercially smart.

Finally, to be clear, I’m not calling for more snouts in the trough. Keeping the business lean is still right at the moment. They will shortly have 6.5m of share options. They could for example pay three NEDs the equivalent of say £150k each for a TWO year contract in shares, so it doesn’t necessarily mean cash out the business.

Pork's

Hope you are right @Iceman, I have 400,000 reasons to agree with you.....

But IMO nobody is going to support higher than the CENKOS warrants are they? I for one will support the placing depending on timing, and depending on the terms. iI have some business deals to close that are also delayed due to this crap economic climate but once done i will have a lot of firepower.

In the meantime, i want to see full clarity at the AGM on the Lab plan. Ideally i would also like more detail on the exact structure of that stateside SPV if they are continuing with it..

I don't think board changes are required but they do need some additions, a negotiator, a couple of industry NEDs and ideally more women on the board. Its is womens's health after all and Suzy is the only female. That needs to change
GLA

@PM2022
They shouldn't owe her ANY dam consultancy fees at all !!!!!.
Really annoys me if she has allowed that to happen. The 10k USD a month should have been paid and should be a given. VAL are not a charity. Jesus, you telling me this outfit or its directors cant afford 10k a month???

What s this????

@Freddleboy108
You are totally correct. As shareholders we can invest on same terms, which is really good.

VAL have 65m of shares in issue. The resolutions voted on allows for:

A) 20m new shares as a rights Issue to New II or Parties
B) 20m new shares at the same rate and on the same basis as A)
C) 6.5m new shares in Directors Share Options

This is what we are voting on:-
https://www.valirx.com/sites/default/files/2022-06/Valirx%20plc%20-%20Notice%20of%20AGM%202022.pdf

So lets say hyperthetical as last raise was what 8.5p was it? look it up, they do a placing at say 10p. They could raise £2 million from resolutions 4&5 for A) and a further £2m from existing shareholders for B) and give free shares or options to directors for c)

That would give them £4m, then well funded. Look at securing a lab with some of that cash and debt against the lab and when 201 gets funded the extra cash comes in and covers any loans off. Job done.

Share price climbs again and at above 22p CENKOS CASH warrants and that adds another 900k or whatever to VALs cash position.

Long term its sound IMO its just short term whilst this settles

GLA

To be fair i have previously criticised @SouthernInvestor but his points are totally valid:-

1. You have written confirmation today that the deal will NOT complete at the month end. FACT.
Suzy is not saying, they couldn't complete by the 30/6 long stop date BUT we are pleased to report they have the funding secured, there are some weeks of legals to complete on and drawdown and sign off will be late but funds will clear at VAL on X specific date on July is she??. No, She is saying they have NOT secured the funding stage yet. Its crystal clear.

2. The good news is that she has a placing ready to go that they are securing votes on. Same Day or the day after the AGM which is what they did previously they will issue the placement. They have no option because VAL are now out of funds. Unless they have a good bank overdraft its likely they wont be able to pay July wage roll.
£593k CAB end of December 21, £105k cash burn per month. they are out of runway.

I don't doubt that there is a chance that TRx could get funded this year but VAL need cash now, not a bloody promise as such the placing is the right way forward

The above is the position, the question is at what price the placing comes at

@Iceman- you cant say she shouldn't be paid until it lands. It is NOT Suzy's fault that after nearly 9 mths they couldn't get the SPV funded. The decision to go the SPV route is more the case, who is advising her that is the best option? Now if its the only option fine, we just have to wait longer for it to happen BUT in the meantime they need funds to keep the lights on. As i say, its the right move.

GLA

@Andysel
Yes, the Lab would be a value add asset with beneficial long term revenues just as long as it is 100% wholly owned by VAL and Kevin doesn't come up with some SPV idea for that where we pick up the bulk of the cost and a chunk of it owned by some other party other than VAL.
The devil will be in the detail. I look forward to seeing the outline details.
GLA

@Krush030
Absolutely, oldest trick in the book.
VAL need to strengthen the board with a dam good negotiator, this deal and the CENKOS warrants deal both should have been handled better.

I still believe Suzy is a brilliant Ambassador for the business but its clear to me she needs more support

GLA

SP Holding up really well frankly which is a positive.

So they are NOT going to complete now to 30.6 so come the AGM shortly the resolutions will be passed and the placing arranged they have no other option. 30% Corp/ 30% Retail/ 10% Options so we are in for 70% dilution.

Question now is at what price the placing is done at. That's the burning question?

As for TRx well nearly 9mths to sort their funding out??? bloody ridiculous IMO, come on....Appreciate markets are tough but come on, its not that difficult. Will VAL be granting say a further 3mth exclusive extension or a 6mth extension, will that change things?

IMO, they should grant extension to complete YES if they really think this is still the best call, but NOT on an exclusive basis. TRx should lose that benefit.

VAL should complete their own placing now as per the plan B TO shore up finances so they can continue trading, finance the lab from the placing if that's the move now and start looking for other Biotech partners to take 201 forward.

Has TRx even paid the 10k USD a month since December to VAL? If the answer is NO which we think is the case it really should be a no to any extension all together. VAL should walk away and start actively working on partner alternatives IMO.

Going to be interesting what she says at the AGM that's for sure.....

GLA

Oversold and now at ridiculous valuation
Company has some value, 1500 patents, manufacturing capability, 14 drugs at various stages, vaccine in progress etc etc
Market conditions currently crazy
Entire Biotech sector down. Buying at these levels no brainer, see how events unfold.
AGM Shortly
GLA

@PM2022
We are totally different people. FACT. Check with Clare at LSE if in doubt.

@SouthernInvestor
Obviously i have a view BUT it wont make me popular so lets just see what Suzy has to say end of the month.
If she puts out a positive update on the Triple evaluation before the AGM that could spike the SP which might help.

GLA

@PM2022 & @SouthernInvestor
I stand by the fact that i consider Suzy is doing an exceptional job managing shareholder expectations.
For example, delivering the financial report after hours prevented the SP crashing.

I also consider as a long term investment it will do well over the long term and that is why i have not sold out my remaining current holdings.

Regarding adding further, as it stands Suzy has given every indication that the business plan involves buying a lab. In my considered opinion, nobody is going to support a placing higher than where CENKOS have warrants at 22p. Why would they? just to make Cenkos money?

As such, I'm not adding now as i believe there will be a placing opportunity soon for the lab at discount and as i'm a holder I hope i can take part in that in that situation. That is good business sense. @pm2022 you even eluded to that possibility yourself.

Maybe my call is wrong and if so that's fine also, i can add at 30p on certainty. If the SPV isn't funded and the placing is for a cash call on top of a raise for the lab then the discount will be greater.

Does that clarify it enough? Lets see how events unfold.

I have refrained from replying earlier and left until after close for fear of being accused of trying to influence others. I stand by the fact that long term the future is sound. Short term its obviously it's going to be volatile

GLA

Just for those not keeping up, Investing in Biotech’s is a LONG term investment. This is because of the gestation period between onboarding a potential drug from evaluation stage right through the trial stages to commercialisation can be as long as 10 years. I wish it was shorter but its not.

Suzy has been clear on this from day one, she has explained the process at least twice to my knowledge and I have only been in this stock for about a year.

As @rhubarbmk2 has pointed out it is a binary outcome regarding the Stateside SPV and if they get funded before the month end or not. Investors already know this. I have discussed it and so have many others. If it takes longer, sobeit Suzy has a plan B ready. The market is Ugly. Who could predict Covid, a war and a crash of the Bio Index in this last year… and
Suzy has had to steer the business throughout this period, give her some credit?

The social banter here is simply because all possibilities have been discussed now and some are just making light of things whilst we wait on the outcome.

@SouthernInvestor whilst you raise some relevant points. I find your posts just bashing the business now for no reason. I find it deeply offensive that some here have accused me of being you. I suspect you are something to do with the old business. It might be worth Suzy contacting Claire at LSE to do an identity check on you. 100% of your posts on LSE are just to bash VAL. You need to pack it in as you just sound vindictive now.

As far as I’m concerned Suzy is doing an amazing job trying to turn this business around, against the backdrop of a tough climate possibly the worst in the last ten years. IMO, she needs more support in the business.

I totally agree with @BaxterSoup regarding the lab and whilst its easy for some to criticise Suzy as the CEO, I can tell you I would have Suzy as CEO all day long compared to the likes of Duncan at 4D who has zero engagement with shareholders and keeps them in the dark, or that chubby buffoon who was the previous CEO here, likewise many other CEO’s on the AIM who couldn’t care less either.

Looking forward to her further update end of this month. Que sera sera.

GLA

Pork's

Well will see but we are well OVERSOLD that's for sure.

It's always a good sign when loads of de-ramping shorter's show up here. By then the bigger shorting players realise its time to start closing out as the smaller ones still short hence helping their exit positions. Same old, same old. Last ones to close get stung.

See how event's unfold. I would be surprised if any share issue before the year end or early 2023 if Oxford are on board would be as low as 25p but WTFDIK maybe it will be.

SP is now that ridiculously low, i am past caring. Bottom draw. As i say if it hasnt recovered by the tax year end in April 23 im out and offsetting against my capital gains.

GLA

@Michael
Totally agree - Great Set of Questions we need the answers on

Ridiculous situation, practically same value of Buys to sells today and the MM's mark us down yet again another 5% - bloody joke.

Over the course of about the last ten weeks here, since the 0518 and Keytruda update on the 23rd March the business has lost more than half its value- says it all

Duncan needs to seriously step up here frankly

GLA

@Boonco
No, I want the FDA to pull their finger out and I want updates on the vaccine milestones and other situations. I want to see an improved and engaged IR from the business.

I say best thing for Duncan because as much as i hate to say it, the buck stops with him.

Despite all these investor conferences that we got confirmation of between SO selling TR1s not at any point has he secured the support of a fund. He did nothing to try and negotiate a less damaging exit for SO. The decision to list on the NASDAQ has been an expensive flop, all it has done is help bring packs of shorting groups to the stock.

I love what this company are doing, i think the potential for LBPs is just off the scale frankly. Its #gamechanging and #lifechanging stuff however, as good as a scientist Duncan is i think he is a poor communicator and that's what the US market likes.

He has done nothing to stand behind the SP and its us shareholders that pay the price for that. So yes, i say, IF he cant make the grade then stick to what he is good at and sell to Merck or another Biotech to take forward

I will give this another 9 months to end of March 23 this tax year. If by then we are not advancing, already part of Merck or have a materially improved value im out and will write off my loss against my capital gains.

That's how it is for me on this one.

Good Luck All

Disconnect between value and SP continues but the business isn't worth FA. It has some value.

Shorters calling for 25p, 20p, 10p, 1p FAp, cash back on shares..... Oh please, it all needs buying back at some point. We are at the ALT its well OVERSOLD i'm of the opinion that its only short increases now that are pushing this. Retail have capitulated and those left have it now in bottom draw.

If Duncan just wants to sit back and let it continue to slide then he will have nothing left to dilute should he come to raise capital end of the year and all his previous investments worth sh@t

Most ridiculous situation

Best option for Duncan now is to ditch going it alone and sell the patent, the IP and the manufacturing capability for best price to Merck and merge it with their R&D Division.

Will separate the men from the boys so to speak:-
Detailed analysis:-
https://pharmaceuticalmanufacturer.media/pharmaceutical-industry-insights/pharmaceutical-manufacturing-insights/the-importance-and-implications-of-ivdr-compliance-for-manufacturers/

What it will do is rid the industry of the cowboys and also the small players remaining. I suspect we will see further industry consolidation. If your business ends up recruiting compliance officers and extends their infrastructure to ensure their manufacturing trade process and products are correct for validation, they may as well extend their product ranges.

Meanwhile, smaller coys just wont want the additional burden that IVDR will bring and look to selling out. Could get interesting.