Member Info for LochinvarLass

The deaths per Million of population are independent of the numbers tested.

I believe the UK is not unique in not including the numbers who are dying at home, but ONS said they will start publishing that number. There will be some are missed because there is little post mortem testing, and others are having their deaths attributed to other underlying causes, including psoriasis.

My thought a few weeks ago is that we need something like a pee test which can be administered at home. After reading that another country was testing waste water to predict outbreaks, I'm hoping that someone will take up the challenge and mass testing with a high confidence factor will be created.

I'm not sure where I read it, but one of the leading transmission non-human spreaders for those not serving on the front lines in the NHS is actually phones. This makes sense to me and about the only advantage of my needing to use the speaker to hear conversations properly.

Keep safe.

Thank you for this. We have a local support group here. Loch Fyne Oysters have also set up to deliver fresh fruit and veg along with other necessaries to communities around them. They have long been a favourite, so I shall plug them every chance I get.

I trust that we can get a grip on this and figure out a way to keep those who have not been exposed safe.

Putting their lives on the line. Very humbling indeed.

The best thing we can all do for them is to stay in self isolation for at least 14 days. I know that the UK say 7 days is enough, but I will defer to countries with lower fatality rates for what they do differently.

(In case you are wondering, UK numbers have not included all those who died at home. Perhaps asking the daft lassie question last week will shed some light on them, even though many may still be marked at pneumonia. ONS figures are expected out today I believe.)

I know the WHO are doing a megatrial - assume the UK is not participating - so they may have effective treatments.

For now, like others, self-isolation is by best course as I doubt I'll make Johnson/Cummings cut for a respirator.

I just caught up on a few threads and found this. Given the impacts on the elderly and those with inefficient immune systems, we must do what we need to do to live life as fully as we can.

I found this on my Twitter timeline early this morning. I hope you and others find it useful to learn from South Asia, who have already had a real trial run for #Covid19 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

I'm not so sure if Scancell will boom, though a return to previous higher levels would be most welcome. Certainly to me it looks like a bargain, so may be buying more when my pension is paid.

I did wonder if Scancell's immuno therapies could be utilised to help keep those who were not suffering from cancer to help their immune systems cope more effectively.

Thank you for passing this on. I'm so grateful to you and your colleagues bearing the brunt of this on behalf of nation which rarely expresses their appreciation.

For all those who are finding it hard to sleep, I find it is better to just get up and do something productive rather than lay in bed for hours. Whether that is reading a book, stretching, meditation, it is far better than focusing on the worries. If nothing else, a friend at @fastFuture (twitter) is going a survey on post CV19 impacts and would appreciate input - I'm pretty sure it is still open - https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/COVID-19Impacts

A neighbour recommended booking slots in advance. When I went to book last weekend, the earliest slot was 11 April. We only have one company who deliver here.

Ivy, Yes, thank you I have read it as well as the article which ran the USA numbers based on it.

A friend has extrapolated UK numbers on an ongoing basis based on the model and the numbers being reported. I understand that there are far more who may be infected but as they don't require hospitalisation, they are not included in the count.

I read about Fergusson earlier in the week. Someone who has been running the numbers based on the IC model for HI said they reckon 4% of Londoners are already infected (up to 320k cases). This is one of the reasons I'm pushing for testing of millions.

I think it is wise for everyone to take necessary steps where they can to limit contact with others who may not know yet that they have been infected. I think those who are caring for the elderly / immuno suppressed in the community should also be given protective clothing, though I really don't know how that will actually stop the spread as the minute the gear is contaminated, it will act as a spreader.

I've just seen that the £ has dropped to 1.16 according - I'm sure I checked yesterday morning and it was still much higher. A pretty volatile time again all round.

I'm hoping at least the guys who trade my very wee bit of FX money have done well out of it at least. Thus far, it is up 15% this month.

Meanwhile, the birds are waking the dawn, the loch is still as glass and the skys are clear. Just a touch of snow on the the hills closest to me to the north, east and south. And of course the daffodils are in full bloom. I think I picked the right place to self-isolate if needed. In the meantime, I can enjoy walk when the sun is shining.

I've been referring to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ mostly because it makes the numbers easier to understand quickly, even though the updates to numbers look a little weird.

I noticed China is now reporting new cases - 38 yesterday, 39 today. I also appreciate that like the UK numbers, some people don't trust the numbers reported - it really is a case of GIGO. In the case of the UK, the possible misinterpretation of the closed cases to infer survival rates at this point is skewed by the lack of rigorous testing.

No doubt many of those who go in for testing negative are being exposed to CV19 at the hospital and many will then develop symptoms. The sooner we start mass manufacturing the UK invented 10 minute test, the better it will be for all the emergency services and everyone else working to keep the country running.

Ivy, Please take care. For you, I hope it turns out to not be CV19.

There is a lot of different information on how best to treat it if it is CV19. I've seen a doctor say to simply let the fever spike - eg don't try to bring it down because that is what helps the virus take hold. He recommended vicks vaporub and a steaming cump.

I can get to sky news, but I rarely watch life unless I'm out. Some of the people I know ran the numbers for the UK. If you are interested, there was a post online last week that "flattening the curve" would mean 10 years for CV19 to run its course in the USA to cope with their available beds. I believe I read Trump told state governors to go get what they need themselves (but I haven't followed up to find out if the FED Gov is providing any funds).

As someone else said, deaths will be attributed to primary and secondary causes . That was one of the reasons I was surprised so many of the elderly deaths thus far were labelled CV19. I'm very concerned about their mutual "commonality" given they are all over the country. Because many NHS A&E are effectively acting as a stop gap for those who live in their homes, many elderly are left waiting in beds overnight there, exposed to anything going by them.

It's one of the reasons I've suggested elsewhere commandeering all the private hospitals to take non urgent cases. I'm glad to see someone more level headed has come up with a better solution.

I'm really hoping Idris' level headed pragmatism knocks the "it's not so bad" attitude on its head. We don't need thousands of typhoid Marys running about the UK determined to have a good time.

That is a relief from my point of view. Last night I read the total was 260,000 which was down from the 520,000 estimate when they ran their herd immunity model.

Not sure if I have already posted this here, but my concerns lie with after effects - I believe a spike in ME / CFS is expected up to two years post the virus due to its characteristics. Also, I've noted a large concern for lung scarring emerging.

I read that 88 couples quarantined filed for divorce immediately upon release.

I think the important thing is to keep track of the real testing and the numbers of new cases. Right now, stopping the spread is the most urgent activity, given that more than one person has passed on the infection to over a thousand others.

I don't see how you achieve that without a four week lockdown. Alanna Shaikh (Ted talk) said it can take up to 24 days for symptoms to appear.

Heaven help us if the marshmallow crop fails again.

Where I am has persistent rain. It's rained every day for a few weeks, and there are a few patches of snow on the hills even so (and it can't be more than 500 ft above sea level by my reckoning - I'll check a map at some point).

My personal view is that a four week lockdown is preferable to 18 months plus waiting for vaccines.

I have several friends whose immune systems are compromised. Sacrificing 30 days to contain symptoms sensible to me - by that time, the UK 10 minute test at home should be available.

Far better than to expect over *60s and all those on any kind of immuno suppressant to self isolate for a minimum of four months. *using WHO definition of elderly.

It's just my view having joined the ranks recently.

Thanks for that. Hope everyone stocked up early on pasta, beans and soup, and vaporub.