The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I think most existing shareholder would have already banked the 14p in their mindset, programmed IT systems will want AV to beat analyst expectation,
Individual investors will be looking for news on what's happening with the new future money coming AV way. aka Buybacks/ special/ debt reduction/ takeovers/
Seems a lot of companies fall after their results lately due to unrealistic expectations.
The Markets rallied in the last part of 2020 so the solvency fund should be looking good.
My view is if the solvency has done well and or there is money news, other than the 14p AV will go up.
If the solvency fund not moved much and there is no news about the new money then it is likely to be a down day, due to expectations.
Since June 30th markets have gone up between 5% and 20% so their funds should be looking a lot healthier as long as the withdraws have been kept under control and new money has been coming in, I suspect that is why they cut their fees.
Even though I do not take much from analyst personal views or the number these companies come up with when they talk about price on buy hold sell.
On the positive side, I hope they have a rough idea of what they are doing and have chats with management and would not have put the same dividend in forecasts if the board had any thoughts of dividends cuts, They do seem to show a fairly positive view with dividends expecting to stay roughly the same and growing a bit over 5 years.
https://www.mandgplc.com/investors/equity-analysts-coverage
https://www.mandgplc.com/~/media/Files/M/MandG-Plc/documents/investors/MGplc-consensus-Feb-2021-c.pdf
A 10% yearly return would be amazing, I have said this on other stocks but it never pans out a 10% return would stop me from trading I would just leave it here forever. I guess we find out in time.
I am new to M&G I have invested in M&G today, chasing my phantom high dividends, does anyone think there much chance of it being slashed? every time I pick a high yield dividend stock lately it gets slashed even when the numbers are good for one reason or another.
Brilltrader what you have said makes common sense and is logical but everything you read that you can find out online shows a different picture.
how much you believe from online material is down to every one own individual choice.
0. The golden tickets named the worst contracts that have ever been created designed for a time where everything was done with a post and not instantly online.
1. 1 of the still existing contract holders that decided not to settle and wants to keep his old contract Max-Herve George had 70k investment given to him at 7 years old now 32 years old.
2 . Around 2007 it was worth 93 million.
3. At some point an investment bank lent George 20 million to invest before the 93m or after I am unsure I suspect it was before.
4. from what I have read there is no limits to profits on these contract.
5. Average making 67% per year.
6. AV France lost every case in France trying to get out of if this contract.
7. George says he does not want money now just his contract honored.
4/8. No max liabilities on these contracts, which would make sense as they were sold to rich people.
In my view, it was ring-fence ie AV France could be dropped now tho the whole av group is on the line for it.
AV seems to dismiss it as nothing so do many on these chats. I have seen nothing on these chats or online to make these contracts look like harmless ringfenced, all I read is that these contracts are a total company-destroying disaster waiting to happen. AV CFO said when questioned about the GT dismissed it has covered. George's lawyer wants AV France to show the liabilities on the results for Gt contracts but AV has refused.AV also has never said what the max liabilities for these contracts are why? I suspect because they are limitless.
All so these nothing contracts caused AV to keep liabilities above from what AV France holds, as this new company did not see it as a harmless contract they saw risk.
I would be happy to view any information online that differs from what i seen put a link on here. thats my last about GT for now I give everyone break.
Right down 93 million on a bit of paper and let say it 2007 as many papers claimed he had in 2015 and add 67% to the fund every year, see how much you get to by 2021, then add another 5 years 10 years 15 years.
On the last set of results, an analyst asked about the golden ticket and the CFO waved it away saying nothing it is covered 3 months later a new company does not want to touch it with a barge pole and AV has to keep the future liabilities.
My point is there is no limit to the payout from what I have seen it will just keep growing . Find a penny double it double it again double it again soon you have 1 billion 2 billion 4 billion 8 billion 16 billion pennies.
I hit enter by mistake before finishing my first message I meant to say no company ///not no one there possible short term gain but that golden tick year by year will just keep growing, the main guy was meant to be on 93 million in 2007, so he must be near 1 billion by now, AV France has lost every court case in France trying to get out of the contract. The guy who i forgot his name claimed that his fund has gone up on average 67% per year in the independent in 2015.
The endless liabilities with the golden ticket are now permanently attached to the AV UK group instead of AV France only.
For me, I thought it was the main reason for getting rid of AV France yet AV UK still has full liabilities for the golden tickets that are going up 70% per year. no company will want to inherit this.
At the moment I think AV is turning into a money trap with limited future growth while shareholders are holding on hoping for some kind of returns from asset sales to boost the share price.
I think everything now will depend on AV France being sold for a good price depending on the( golden ticket issue).
Many believe the GT is overblown and is nothing to worry about, others believe that the GT is holding back the share price and is a ticking time bomb that would put of any buyers for AV France.
If they get rid of that share price anchor and gain 3 to 6 billion from the sale of AV France 400 to 450 +could easily happen.
Many old shareholders would return pushing the share price up, and the existing shareholders will be rewarded for their commitment to AV.
With demand for our homes remaining strong, we ended the year with a total order book valued at £2,684 million (31 December 2019: £2,176 million), excluding joint ventures, which represents 10,685 homes (31 December 2019: 9,725 homes).
Look to the future, not the past.
As for the dividends they used the same method for years a stable basic dividend followed by a larger special.
It never makes sense to me why would someone buy a stock when it up 7.7 % with no news, is it just all the AI pushing it up?
I would never buy a stock when it was up 7.7% I would maybe sell but never buy unless there was some amazing news it was riding on.
The odds have to be that it going to drop more than it going up more, On the other hand, as I am writing this it's now 8% crazy world. time for me to sell.
They said their intention was to restart dividends depending on BOE giving the ok which they did some time ago.
Also depending on the results and how well Jan/Feb started to look like, but they are doing some kind of dividend review at the same time.
The old rate for year 51c people have been speculating anything from 5/10c 21c to 51c a lot of unknowns.
paste copy.
HSBC said it would pay a “conservative dividend” if allowed, the latest lender to push for an end to the British authorities’ ban on shareholder handouts introduced in March to ensure U.K. banks could weather the crisis. Chief Financial Officer Ewen Stevenson said it would not be a “token” amount when asked about the likely size of any payout.
Fxpo has done well but do you still have the ex CEO that owns 50% going on trial for money problems in Ukraine relating to the money taken out of a bank he owned before it collapsed which lost hundreds of millions including FXPO money, and no one really knows what Ukraine might do, as all the mines are in Ukraine.
You all so got the swiss tax you have to pay on the dividends.
FXPO has gone up near 300% from its March lows all ready how much more steam is left in it.
I would say get ideas from people but always do your own research.
You might like it You might not.
As for AV I think it all depends on what happens with AV france this will either make or break AV share price.
Analysts generally are clueless, though it good when they cause the SP to go up.
My thoughts are if HSBC can pull off those big cuts in the payroll the $4.3 billion savings or more. will help a lot
If they can move funds from USA /UK/ EU to Asia where interest rates are far better. will help a lot
They have $36 billion distributable funds this will be interesting to see what happens with it.
Hoping PING is keeping the pressure up on HSBC to pay good dividends.
The dividend is the most important part, this I feel will determine if wed see 300 again or 600 by April, depends on the odds of seeing 51c payout or the even intention to pay this for the year after, then we might see 600 if they come out with some kind 2to3 times, cover for dividends then say hello to 300.
If it is a 3% to 5% payout per year not counting 2020year.
The Analysts will say this is great news but the SP will sink.
To see 4.50 the timing would have to be just right and the share price would not hold unless they hold on to the sold asset cash.
My reasons when the company was making 3 billion a year it struggles to get to 5.00 which would value AV at 20 billion.
New core 3-way business will make around 1/3 less you could get maybe 10% to 20% 30%in share buybacks or 30p,60p to 90p in specials, depending on how much of the 10 billion debt they want to pay off. I'm am guessing it will be a mixture of all 3 .
Each time you get a special the stock will peak and then drop further back from its peak due to the 21p dividend limit.
If AV was to go up 50% the dividend rate would fall to 3.3% I am guessing there would be better options at this point unless they were still holding a ton of cash.
If the french unit is sold this could go up 10% to 25% but after that, I think the
Future AV investment will require great timing.
You could find you are just swapping dividends for share price position.
My 2 pennies worth.