Member Info for karv1

This stock is a huge risk v reward a possible 10 fold return or total loss.
It is so tempting but with so many unknown variables.
The logic would suggest with a 90% drop and at a guess, 30% of this is just an emotional reaction. you could argue that the general market thinks there is a 60% to 90% chance of total loss or more drops with current knowledge, but what a return if this recovers in time.

What not to like a 10% dividend on a sound company with no debt and a pile of cash.Compared with companies drowning in debt with ultra-low returns.

I just realized I had it on the monthly compound and not yearly it would be around 8 billion at 30 years from 2007 on 68% returns but the principle is the same.

This will be my last message on it for a while I am not convinced. I am in the minority.
This will have a negligible impact on Aviva’s solvency position. It is probably correct at the moment and even if the numbers are shown are incorrect the effect /contract with his life are not and FT said the average is 68% return with 1.4m being awarded by a court in 2007 and I think he has not lost any court cases since far as I can see. its the future liabilities as silly and ridiculous as these numbers seem to get in France law he is winning. Then in Uk/FRENCH law, AV agreed on new terms to take responsibility for any excess money owed on the endless growing debt when they sold AV france.

Year returns done yearly 68% Total
Interest Balance
0 -- -- £1,400,000.00
1 £1,312,589.81 £1,312,589.81 £2,712,589.81
2 £2,543,226.95 £3,855,816.76 £5,255,816.76
3 £4,927,665.37 £8,783,482.13 £10,183,482.13
4 £9,547,667.75 £18,331,149.88 £19,731,149.88
5 £18,499,218.74 £36,830,368.62 £38,230,368.62
6 £35,843,423.01 £72,673,791.63 £74,073,791.63
7 £69,448,931.38 £142,122,723.01 £143,522,723.01
8 £134,561,759.61 £276,684,482.62 £278,084,482.62
9 £260,722,041.19 £537,406,523.81 £538,806,523.81
10 £505,165,679.76 £1,042,572,203.57 £1,043,972,203.57
11 £978,790,910.20 £2,021,363,113.76 £2,022,763,113.76
12 £1,896,470,176.58 £3,917,833,290.34 £3,919,233,290.34
13 £3,674,532,623.03 £7,592,365,913.38 £7,593,765,913.38
14 £7,119,642,673.26 £14,712,008,586.63 £14,713,408,586.63
15 £13,794,764,394.56 £28,506,772,981.19 £28,508,172,981.19
16 £26,728,240,929.30 £55,235,013,910.49 £55,236,413,910.49
17 £51,787,681,379.79 £107,022,695,290.28 £107,024,095,290.28
18 £100,341,954,780.69 £207,364,650,070.97 £207,366,050,070.97
19 £194,418,974,183.67 £401,783,624,254.64 £401,785,024,254.64
20 £376,699,234,186.19 £778,482,858,440.83 £778,484,258,440.83
21 £729,878,930,964.84 £1,508,361,789,405.67 £1,508,363,189,405.67
22 £1,414,187,249,457.16 £2,922,549,038,862.83 £2,922,550,438,862.83
23 £2,740,078,513,957.75 £5,662,627,552,820.58 £5,662,628,952,820.58
24 £5,309,077,892,998.16 £10,971,705,445,818.73 £10,971,706,845,818.73
25 £10,286,678,987,606.70 £21,258,384,433,425.43 £21,258,385,833,425.43
26 £19,931,100,414,560.43 £41,189,484,847,985.86 £41,189,486,247,985.86
27 £38,617,785,605,431.34 £79,807,270,453,417.22 £79,807,271,853,417.22
28 £74,824,436,887,467.80 £154,631,707,340,885.00 £154,631,708,740,885.00
29 £144,977,146,352,462.81 £299,608,853,693,347.81 £299,608,855,093,347.81

Jake seems there is nothing new.
AV has been contesting the golden tickets forever and I have not seen them win any court case.
The liabilities seem endless though some have mentioned a billion loss others have said unlimited. Even the new company wanted nothing to do with it.
Some would say it is overblown but I would like to find information that says it is impossible that max or other GT holders can not come after AV UK for unlimited payment in many billions.
If anything I think they made it worst Aviva has agreed to indemnify Aema for future costs arising from a bizarrely self-destructive product

1.4m in 2007 becomes very scary numbers when you get into the 20+ years when the funds double every 18months.
old story but handy numbers https://www.ft.com/content/965334ac-630a-33b5-8173-93a07e6ac0ca
The SP only ever gets affected when a paper runs the story then it recovers so my question is what is everyone else seeing that i am not?

I think the interim was around 370m pre-tax before short-term fluctuations and hedging.
I guess we find out in early 2022 how everything is going.
It sucks when the SP drops but I think you have to find a price you are happy with knowing there is a 50% chance it might go down or up.
The dividend looks safe to me I would prefer a higher SP like everyone would as it gives you more options but as long as the dividend is not touched I will be happy.

Can someone explain to me how max aka golden ticket will not own AV by 2040 at the latest?
I know people say it will be covered ect but when you put 1.4m in 2007 in an interest calculator at 68% for 30 years it comes to over 8billion and by 2037 and in 33 years 2040 more than the company is worth.
Max has won 50 odd court cases and at the top french court where they take the wording of the contract as law, he says he just wants the contract honored not money,. In my view, it is because I think he knows he can take it all.
it feels like a reverse lease longer it goes on more likely he going to own a chunk of money from the sold french unit than all of UK AV as I believe they still have liabilities from the golden ticket.
Plus if i read it correctly he added 20m to the 1.4m contract a long time ago which means he might already be over 1billion.
Yet No one seems fazed by this at all, people just seem to think it can not happen. Can someone give me a legal reason or knowledge on how this can not happen?
I have thought about reinvesting in AV a fair few times but I can not figure out how he will not own it all and my investment will one day be worth nothing or a downhill share price when the full liabilities come to light.

I had thought is the market not building for many new players to come in?
BG shell and the likes are limited for prices back to October locked-in prices that are linked to the last 6 months' whole sale prices from memory from March to October. which on average is a lot lower.
So anyone signing up now will get March to October prices which are a lot lower and could get 2 years fixed maybe, people like BG can not afford to stop selling and are limited by price caps if i understand it correctly.
Any new players that come in after March if wholesale prices were to drop will be able to buy cheap gas and undercut the existing players. Existing players will need to charge more to cover their cost from Oct prices up to March 2022 which so far are really high so far. The customers will flow out of the existing players.
Does this sound possible?

Which institutions have sold I have not seen any?
Do you mean some of the large share trades of late? I think they are between institutions as they going off in 1 trade.
I believe it is unlikely large trades would appear on level 2 in 1 trade, which would suggest to me that it is just being traded around to other institutions and not to the general market as the price is up and not down. though I have not checked today's trades. Most big trade days excluding auctions have been on up days.

Context is everything.

I thought last night when the futures were 1.6%+down that today was going to be a blood bath but it improved a bit overnight and seems to be improving as the morning goes on but it is still early though.
I suspect the market changed direction last night due to the first Omicron virus case in USA at a guess but the shock is wearing off,
The good news at least for the stock market is with limited information from news
Most Omicron cases are 'mild' and there's no evidence to suggest vaccines may be less effective against the variant, says WHO official

Tosato, Massimo Non-Executive Director just brought 200k worth of shares a week ago I do NOT think he would be doing this if a cut was on the cards. If anything it shows confidence in the shares.
I need an edit button.

There have been no big institutions sells. from what I have seen.
The dividend has not been cut even during the first wave of the virus and also has gone up.
dividend is covered
Tosato, Massimo Non-Executive Director just brought 200k worth of shares a week ago I do think he would be doing this if a cut was on the cards. If anything it shows confidence in the shares ///in hindsight he probably wishes he waited a week..
It would be good to see a lot more of the board buying.
I personally think the outflows would have to be extremely bad on final results for a dividend cut to happen. most other asset managers seem to have done ok over the last few months.

FALKY anyone can pull a number out of the sky and every day flip that coin then claim to be right next week month year 2 years to many variables I could make the same claim with say 210 instead of 175.
IT went way lower with no vaccine and the shock effect of a new virus and dividend was maintained, it not impossible that it could drop to 175 but at the same time it is not impossible to see 210 or even back to 240.
You still have not given your reason on why you think the dividend is a 50/50 chance of being cut when it was not last time .
You are trying to scare people into thinking they will lose money maybe keep flipping that coin you could be right, but in time the share price will come back as it did last time, but if you are wrong people will be sitting on real money losses positions selling now.

Nothing too exciting then thanks Jatw

Hi all what do people think are the odds of a special in 2022 on top of the 8.2% dividend

On the transfer news does anyone know or able to best guess
A) was there a surplus
b) who has the surplus
c) Any ideas on how much money will be released if any and have these already been taken into account.
c) Was any growth in value of the fund kept or has it all been backdated to when the contract was first signed.
d) When the transfer happened originally was their a payment in or out and have they already been counted or has it been kept in limbo with the ongoing court case.

I notice on another site in the past that give out an update on stats on a company and if they would class it as a buy or sell, While I held GFRD and Bovis had done a takeover offer which was about a week beforehand, yet there was no mention of it, it either was just a computer algorithm or someone told to review many companies in 1 day without doing any new research.

Hi falky 50/50 if the dividend Is kept at the current level. what makes you think this?
With 5.2 billion surplus. on 5.14b valuation.
Since half-year results most markets are up.
Average from the group of analysts on MNG page think dividends will go up every year by a small amount
Analysts say they could easily have over billion spare cash next year.
They have increased their self-generating target from 2.2 billion to 2.6 billion.
The dividend was maintained during covid.
whats your reasoning?

Sorry meant thanks Jatw