Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
I think if it gets too 60ish sp I might invest some into GFRD depending on what other funds are doing tho I do not think this will happen it should not happen Greed v risk v reward.
You could argue with that 197 million they could afford a few bad years to try and get things sorted to get that 2% returns
I think with a track record of losing lots of money every year since 2016 between 15 and 80 million per year like on a post I did few pages down, even tho a few of those years they said everything is looking good and then another write-down.
The target profit margins of 2% been put off until 2022, I am guessing their target is 1% for next year, I think I read somewhere that they intend to pay a percentage of the profits out in dividends.
With 197 million cash this must truly feel like a money trap.
A possible 10 to 15 million profit v just 1 project going over budget or being sued or something going wrong and losing 10,s of millions again.
No statement from the board
The board from what others have said are on pay structure from when it was GFRD group which means they could end up owning % points of the company with there share bonus schemes due to the value of the company tho this is here say I have not checked this, all the time while they hoard the 197 million cash.
Is GFRD going to go bust no
Is GFRD ripe for a take over yes will it happen who knows.
If I have read correctly they have 10.5 billion in debt paying between around 4.5 % average I am guessing 400 to 500 million a year interest between 1 and 20 odd years
I am guessing that the 1.6 billion for the Asia unit and if they sell the french unit for 2 billion will be used to bring the debt down under 7 billion, should help long term, tho I never understand the logic of removing your self from the biggest markets on the planet unless the deal was so amazing.
From results. (Based on our results for 2020 and our forecasts for 2021, the Board will consider whether to pay a conservative dividend for
2020. Any such dividend would be dependent on the economic outlook in early 2021, and be subject to regulatory consultation. A
final determination is expected to be made and communicated in February 2021 with our 2020 full-year results. We also expect to
communicate our revised policy for dividends for 2021 and beyond at the same time.)
I have read that the 2020 dividend will not be a token payment. The bit i do not like is the revised policy for dividends for 2021 and beyond.
Hoarding all that money shows a lack of faith in their own company, maybe they can see more write-downs in the future that we do not know about.
Maybe they just playing ultra-safe with the virus situation.
They could pay a 10% dividend for 20 years while making 0 profit
I was thinking surely it can not go under 70 and into the 60,s and lucky enough it rallied, if they can get a few more contracts which can make them a few million this will fly as long as they are not the bottomless money pit road contracts.
wish I had a crystal ball.
I bet there are some happy people on here this morning.
What do people think are the odds of the 51c/ 39.2p returning in 2021 would make 13% returns.
Ping saying they like the HSBC dividends.
Something like 197 billion Total Equity
With 15 % CET1 ratio.
I read somewhere they have $33 billion distributable cash out of that 190 odd billion they have in Total Equity.
Probably under a lot of pressure to resume from investors in HG
What are people views
Not a bad win steady work over the years if I read it correctly 60 m per year if they were able to get there 2% of profits that's 1.2 million in profits.
On a company value at 85 million 1.2 million profit contract would be a massive contract win if they got there 2%
The cost will be nothing it will all be about impairment charges for bad loans.
last quarter the investment bank had an amazing quarter and this will probably be the big decider on the day on the 23rd of October for this quarter.
Through PPI and Brexit people thought and value the company shares at between 135 to 213 and before this 250+
With PPI which is over Brexit and the virus, we now value at 104 you get the crazy people saying 50p for the future,
What has changed with the long term
CET1 never been better 14.2%
The investment bank is finally improving and did very well in the last quarter.
The cost seems to be under control.
Divided tho may be lower in 2021 will likely to be better in the future than most years since 2009
Good post no one ever gets it right 100% of the time or we all be millionaires.
The number of times I regretted not taking the profits and then to see it go down, money in the bank it safe until the next round.
I sold yesterday at 4.1% up I took the gamble that it would go down in the afternoon it closed at 4.8% so I threw some into HSBC and hoping Barc drops some today to get back in or I might go all into HSBC or back into BARC at a higher price it the gamble some you win some you lose.
1.80% up a good start to the week and a stronger position for when we get the NEWS.
We are a day closer to Brexit and the vaccine and the results in no particular order, these 3 factors 1 or all 3 could make the difference between 80p and below or 120 plus.
Last week a 6.7% raise so not bad.
A nice 10% rise over the first 2/3 weeks of October would be nice followed by a decent set of results on the 23rd to push it up by 20% by November or December.
A few vaccine makers have said they hoping for results by Christmas or even late November this is likely to have an extra push upwards, and you never know there might be some dividend news tho very unlikely.
This is putting A positive spin on the situation.
Mrshareman I am no expert on rr but if the company is worth 2 billion and they are raising 2 billion = worthless+ 4 billion of extra debt and no signs of improvement yet.
sell while you can in be my view that is the math of it, but the market and share price do not always follow the math.
2019 lost 33 million exceptional charges total loss of 15.8 million
2020 lost 54 million exceptional charges total loss 34 million loss also showing in 2019 section on 2020 was 64 million loss for 2019.
I need an edit button.
wish you well but remember
GFRD construction 2016 profit 15 million around 2.1% profits
2017 lost 88 million exceptional charges total loss of 88.8 million
2018 lost 45 million exceptional charges total loss of 29 million
2019 lost 33 million exceptional charges total profit loss of 15.8 million
2020 lost 54 million exceptional charges total profit 34 million loss also showing 2019 was 64 million loss on 2020 results.
but you get the picture is why I'm very wary of GFRD.
linden home use to keep construction running how long will that 200 million Bovis payment for linden homes money last.
Another way of looking at it GFRD group had net debt of 45 million, Bovis took the 100 debt note away should have left 55 million cash plus the 300 million cash given by Bovis = 355 million minus any tax on the 300 million and they have 197 million left.
Every year they say things have improved.
I think the lastest I saw was something around 1% profit margins hoping to get 2% in 2022 I think they gave up on that target for 2021.
They closed down Morrison construction if I recall correctly to save money yet still lost money all the while the profits % keep going down.
All the construction companies seem to be hitting loss year after year at the moment.
GFRD has the most money so will last the longest but there is risk tho also reward if they can finally turn it around