Member Info for karv1

I hit enter by mistake before finishing my first message I meant to say no company ///not no one there possible short term gain but that golden tick year by year will just keep growing, the main guy was meant to be on 93 million in 2007, so he must be near 1 billion by now, AV France has lost every court case in France trying to get out of the contract. The guy who i forgot his name claimed that his fund has gone up on average 67% per year in the independent in 2015.

The endless liabilities with the golden ticket are now permanently attached to the AV UK group instead of AV France only.
For me, I thought it was the main reason for getting rid of AV France yet AV UK still has full liabilities for the golden tickets that are going up 70% per year. no company will want to inherit this.

No one in there right mind would buy AV now

At the moment I think AV is turning into a money trap with limited future growth while shareholders are holding on hoping for some kind of returns from asset sales to boost the share price.
I think everything now will depend on AV France being sold for a good price depending on the( golden ticket issue).
Many believe the GT is overblown and is nothing to worry about, others believe that the GT is holding back the share price and is a ticking time bomb that would put of any buyers for AV France.
If they get rid of that share price anchor and gain 3 to 6 billion from the sale of AV France 400 to 450 +could easily happen.
Many old shareholders would return pushing the share price up, and the existing shareholders will be rewarded for their commitment to AV.

With demand for our homes remaining strong, we ended the year with a total order book valued at £2,684 million (31 December 2019: £2,176 million), excluding joint ventures, which represents 10,685 homes (31 December 2019: 9,725 homes).
Look to the future, not the past.
As for the dividends they used the same method for years a stable basic dividend followed by a larger special.

It never makes sense to me why would someone buy a stock when it up 7.7 % with no news, is it just all the AI pushing it up?
I would never buy a stock when it was up 7.7% I would maybe sell but never buy unless there was some amazing news it was riding on.
The odds have to be that it going to drop more than it going up more, On the other hand, as I am writing this it's now 8% crazy world. time for me to sell.

They said their intention was to restart dividends depending on BOE giving the ok which they did some time ago.
Also depending on the results and how well Jan/Feb started to look like, but they are doing some kind of dividend review at the same time.
The old rate for year 51c people have been speculating anything from 5/10c 21c to 51c a lot of unknowns.
paste copy.
HSBC said it would pay a “conservative dividend” if allowed, the latest lender to push for an end to the British authorities’ ban on shareholder handouts introduced in March to ensure U.K. banks could weather the crisis. Chief Financial Officer Ewen Stevenson said it would not be a “token” amount when asked about the likely size of any payout.

Long term If you are happy with a 6% dividend Then AV will be ok though the share price could bounce all over the place in the future and you maybe get extra specials payment on top of your 6%

Fxpo has done well but do you still have the ex CEO that owns 50% going on trial for money problems in Ukraine relating to the money taken out of a bank he owned before it collapsed which lost hundreds of millions including FXPO money, and no one really knows what Ukraine might do, as all the mines are in Ukraine.
You all so got the swiss tax you have to pay on the dividends.
FXPO has gone up near 300% from its March lows all ready how much more steam is left in it.
I would say get ideas from people but always do your own research.
You might like it You might not.
As for AV I think it all depends on what happens with AV france this will either make or break AV share price.

Analysts generally are clueless, though it good when they cause the SP to go up.
My thoughts are if HSBC can pull off those big cuts in the payroll the $4.3 billion savings or more. will help a lot
If they can move funds from USA /UK/ EU to Asia where interest rates are far better. will help a lot
They have $36 billion distributable funds this will be interesting to see what happens with it.
Hoping PING is keeping the pressure up on HSBC to pay good dividends.
The dividend is the most important part, this I feel will determine if wed see 300 again or 600 by April, depends on the odds of seeing 51c payout or the even intention to pay this for the year after, then we might see 600 if they come out with some kind 2to3 times, cover for dividends then say hello to 300.
If it is a 3% to 5% payout per year not counting 2020year.
The Analysts will say this is great news but the SP will sink.

just worked out my math was wrong 4.6% at 50% rise.
PS also if the french unit sale drops out or they only able to sell sections of it then that 4.50 will be impossible.

To see 4.50 the timing would have to be just right and the share price would not hold unless they hold on to the sold asset cash.
My reasons when the company was making 3 billion a year it struggles to get to 5.00 which would value AV at 20 billion.
New core 3-way business will make around 1/3 less you could get maybe 10% to 20% 30%in share buybacks or 30p,60p to 90p in specials, depending on how much of the 10 billion debt they want to pay off. I'm am guessing it will be a mixture of all 3 .
Each time you get a special the stock will peak and then drop further back from its peak due to the 21p dividend limit.
If AV was to go up 50% the dividend rate would fall to 3.3% I am guessing there would be better options at this point unless they were still holding a ton of cash.
If the french unit is sold this could go up 10% to 25% but after that, I think the
Future AV investment will require great timing.
You could find you are just swapping dividends for share price position.
My 2 pennies worth.

If it drops it will Just be general panic selling, though if the pound keeps dropping the safer and better for HSBC

I think most will sign the new contract when the time comes tho it sucks for them.
I read somewhere that 2 unions have already agreed but gmb with 8000 have voted to strike, some will not strike and will sign the new contract. job worth type.
1/3 will be panicking because there going to be skint after Christmas and would a terrible time to not have a job, it will not be worth the risk of losing your job and would have signed and some without saying so.
An amount will go through with the strike and even if more do strike when it comes down to it they will sign.
BG engineers/ boiler / domestic appliance engineers earn way more in the total package even after cuts than the standard engineers from other companies and they know they would be crazy to leave.
BG boiler engineers are on decent money many and many factors come into play.
How long until my gas card is due to renew if it is under 6 months to a year no one would leave until they had it renewed due to the pre-training and cost and time they would have to pay for.
Most workers are the main wage earners in their families and will not want to lose their jobs.
Many will be institutionalized into a way of working as they been there so long but not ready to retire.
Bg pensions are like gold for older engineers.
Many will be newer people that are not ready to leave and their terms are not that different.
It will be over soon and Centrica will win it is a heartless ruthless view but it is the way the world works now.
Centrica is not a monopoly anymore so the government has no need to get involved.
Some engineers would be happy to leave as they were going to retire soon anyway so they can stand on their principles.
MP,s have no power other than writing letters.
Normal customers won't care they just want cheap bills
Unions do not have the power of the truly committed numbers anymore.
My view on how this is going to pan out.

PVI1
I did the same I think my first trade on AV was around 210 and did tomes of trades around the 230 to 270 range then sold out missed the rise to 305 but brought back in when it came back down to 258 and kept them up to around 315. I have done amazing out of AV, I have doubled my money and most of this is due to my AV trades.

I suffer from itchy fingers. The grass is always greener somewhere else problem, on average I win 3 lose 2 on trades, you could be right. but I always try to pick a stock that has a good future if the trade goes south badly and I decide not to sell. as I do not use stop loss.

I have sold GL all, took small profit time to move on, I have no doubt this stock will go higher but the 10% swing in 3 days with no news was too much and I brought in on a huge trading day for CNA which I did not realize plus took me an hour to sell due to volumes today. it still on my possible investment list.

The margins are thin.
5.2 billion borrowings + 522 pension many bonds have long dates if i recall correctly.
You have 2.8 billion on sale
1.2 billion spirt
600 on nuclear
That's 4.6 billion minus any tax plus 750m free flow cash or 1.6 billion Cash and cash equivalents and anything else they sell.
In the interim which covered the covid time scale, we had 343 adjusted profits, 147m after-tax interest. before losses
Lost was made up of 750 million impairments that should go with asset sales.
and restructuring costs of £251m which is part of the 400 million cost-cutting programs.
Loss of future profits on the sold USA operation is going to be less than the interest CNA will not have to pay if they are able to pay down the debt straight away.
Will they go bust no

Once assets are sold and the debt is taken down by a lot,
you have an Adjusted operating profit of around 500 to 600m per year, then we get 200 million saved on interest.
you have hundreds of millions on cost savings /pasted old post-Centrica said on Tuesday that it would now target an even larger cost reduction, aiming for £1 billion annualised efficiencies over the 2019-2022 period.
The company only valued at 2.42 billion
Centrica/bg is a service provider they do not need large assets.

I hate when a company plays with their numbers to make their figure look good even if it helps pay for the dividend.
Somewhere in the past when the borrowing was a lot lower the boss said we can pay a huge dividend because our net asset has gone up a lot ie our goodwill and right of access or some other rubbish, we just raise the borrowing to pay for it, we have it covered anyway with our assets, Then one day the losses come along and the new boss goes well can't we just borrow more against our net assets. The bank says not really those assets can not pay for the debt they're kind of worthless you need to sell stuff or make huge cutbacks.