Member Info for karv1

Good luck for tomorrow everyone fortune favors the bold

Only 2 days to go and we find out if our patience will be rewarded.
DC if you see this do you still have your av shares?

If I am disappointed it will depend on the situation on the day probably sell tho this will depend on the share price of my other targets.
But I might not be disappointed.

total payouts per year
2019 was 30.9p
2020 so far 6p and maybe a special
2021 why is 26p too much to hope for as the cost of the dividend would be around 1 billion and AV made 900 million after-tax in 6 months so are likely to make 1.7 billion for year after-tax excluding assets sales. or surplus or debt.
There is no real reason the dividend needs to be cut at all.
A dividend policy review does not mean it has to be slashed by a 1/3 or more it would be a different story if the dividend was not covered.
Debt could be paid down a lot through asset sales not even taking into account the 12 billion surpluses.

20p would = 6.1 return v LGEN 6.7% return
AV surplus 12 billion-plus 1.6 billion and now 0.4 billion-plus profits with 10 billion debt. if I have read it correctly with another say 3 to 6 billion worth of assets up for sale.
Lgen surplus 6 billion and fewer profits than AV 6 billion debt if I have read correctly.
I would view 20p as a very poor outcome tho it may happen and it would not be a very good return for shareholders. compared to others.
While we are 20% under LGEN value we would be trapped by the dividend ratio to company value between us and other insurers.

AB said Our strategy is about focus and delivery. The sale of Aviva Vita is another important step forward as we reshape our portfolio and follows the recent announcement of the majority sale of our Singaporean business. We will continue to be decisive as we seek to transform Aviva for the benefit of our shareholders."

I want 26p+ for 2021 and maybe a special dividend.
There are going to be some very happy people after the update or some very disappointed people that's for sure.

I have wondered what question at an AGM I would ask ect The questions I would ask if I could would be the ones I know I might tho very unlikely get an answer to, I know you never going to get a dividend question answered so I would not ask.
My lesson from the last answer and question session was tons of dividend questions were asked and brushed aside with a few second answers, then someone asked a green environmental question about office pollution and waste which lead to an in-depth answer lasting 20 mins from some excited board members.
So my questions would be.
1. Where does AB think the SP will be in 12 months do you expect it to be over 3.50 or 4.00 and should the share price and bonuses be connected.
2. What amount of debt /or percentage would be your goal when talking about reducing the debt.
3 Do you take on board what other companies in the industries are doing in comparison.
4 Would you ever consider increasing the debt even after it has been reduced to take over another company if the opportunity appeared.
I could think of lots of other questions but I doubt any would get answered it would be like asking a politician you ask one question they answer another.

You could be right but I think they got to beat LGEN dividend amount and some if they want the SP to ever increase further.
otherwise, why would existing investors stay.
LGEN has a 5-year plan we need to see something that can beat it on a 1 to 5-year plan there no point doing a real long-term plan due to the fact that the CEO on average are only there 5 years and the new CEO will have his/her own plan.
We are 20% below LGEN valuation if for argument sake we got a 6% return and our valuation increase to equal LGEN we would then only have a 4.8% return versus a 6.9% return from LGEN we would always be seen as the poor cousin to LGEN .
Why would new investors move to AV over the likes of LGEN
I am hoping the board come to the same conclusions.

Can you imagine what going to happen to the share price if we get a good dividend return policy?
Even tho it is very unlikely but if they came out with an 8% to 10% returns like the 26p to 31p dividend rate we would shoot up. Logic would suggest other investors from the likes of LGEN would return to AVIVA for better returns.
On the other hand, if they disappoint on the dividends and it comes in below the average for insurance companies for a reason like reduce the debt and run the company better ect we are going to have a few bad days.

No one knows which way it will go yet and even if they lose 1.2 billion divided by all those companies is not exactly going to break the bank for companies like LGEN AV. small insurance companies might feel it fairly hard.

No in my view
Even tho there are many other numbers that could make a huge difference that we/i do not understand.
If we were to look at it very simply
Why buy A company that makes under 400m a year after-tax with a value at near 7 billion+ if I have read it correctly.
Why at the same time if rumours are believed we are selling the french unit that makes 450m before tax and at a guess 350m after tax for the rumoured 2 to 3 billion. if this happens it would be totally insane.

A few have suggested that the EU conference on the 19th is the latest deadline for a Brexit deal as there are only 6 weeks left until we drop out and the clock is ticking down fast.
So with that thinking, we could see huge gains or huge losses next week.
If it does get pushed back again I would imagine it will only be for another week or 2 because after that the time needed to get it to pass every parliament would have run out.
So we have 4 possible big moving points on the calendar.
1 Brexit deal or not
2 french unit sale if it happens
3 results
4 oxford vaccine I think could still have a huge effect as many countries have brought it.
All these could have a huge impact over the next 6 weeks. we could be at 250 or 370 by the end of the year.

AV. 0.8 up v LGEN 4.4% up at the time of writing this, I would love to be able to ask AV senior management why this is.
We all know why it and would be amazing having the CEO answer that question.
Least it up there are 2 ways to look at it,
I guess eventually either we will catch up with LGEN in the future or we get to see LGEN in the future fall far more than us.

You can not look at the last big dividend this is when GFRD including linden homes that made all the profit 58p was when the share price was 700+, I think they declared a 1p dividend not sure if it ever got paid.
linden homes went to bovis that made huge profits
GFRD the partnership went to Bovis and made small profits.
GFRD construction remained losses every year for last pass 4 year

I look at the net cash/debt and i always look at the Non-current assets when a company is not making huge profits incase there is a chance of losses, because i feel these numbers then become very important.
I think if I was to pick out of these 3 I would pick in this order. numbers from memory could be wrong.
COST bigger profit margins on pass profits, lower losses, better asset positions. semi-safe bet with 179m net including Non-current assets 140m.
GFRD smaller profit margins more losses than COST smaller asset position semi-safe safe with 120m net including 157m Non-current assets.
KIER bigger profit margins huge losses huge debt very risky 250m net inc 1.3 billion of Non-current assets very risky.
Gratz on people that called it correctly, I did not see this happening, these are the days you live for when playing the stock market 26% up.

Can I vote for the LGEN management to run AVIVA this could be a good question to raise at the next AGM.
Due to a total lack of communication between the shareholders and the management, I believe that LGEN management would run Aviva better than the current management team.
1 communication AVIVA share price could be 20% higher if we had better communication.
2 a plan of action
3 returns on sp value
4 returns on dividends
5 The feeling that LGEN management understands their shareholders and Aviva management do not care.
6 AVIVA makes tons of money and has billions of spare money
7 Management have turned AVIVA into a money/value trap for many shareholders.
8 When you see shareholders commenting on the hope that someone takes over AVIVA .
What else can you say other than this company is run badly.
How to put this into a question.

Happy days

It is not just KIER many companies do it using intangible assets claiming mega-money on their books against their debts.
KIER 720 million intangible assets are enough to buy GFRD and COST 4 times over.
An intangible asset is an asset that is not physical in nature. Goodwill, brand recognition and intellectual property, such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights, are all intangible assets.
JUST FOR FUN sorry if you have lost money on KIER please do not take offense.
CAN you imagine a world where they did not count it and you minus the 720million intangible assets from their book their net debt would be near a billion in borrowing?
Mr CEO goes to MR HSBC and says we like to borrow another 300 million,
Mr HSBC says what to take your borrowing to 1.3 billion.
MR CEO no we thought we could use intangible assets against it and say make it 720 million due to our brand ect. so our borrowing goes down to say 300 million and on this calculation, it would be 600 million total with new borrowing this should see us through.
MR HSBC ok what's your company worth.
MR CEO around 90 million.
MR HSBC what profit have you made.
MR CEO well we lost money last year we going to lose money this year we might lose money next year.
MR HSBC oh erm
MR HSBC Phone dial tone
MR CEO hello hello Mr HSBC are you there?

I just posted on GFRD similar to this, Kier debt is huge 1.3 billion Non-current assets which most of it counts for nothing 720 million is Intangible assets aka what the brand is worth in real term it not real money.
The 950 million owed in trade payments is.
The 760 million borrowings is.
The 413 million cash is as well with all the rest of the stuff
Another way of looking at it
Total assets of 2.5 billion
Total liabilities 2.25 billion leaving 250 million equity but out of that 2.25 billion is 1.3 billion Non-current assets around billion of that would be near impossible to turn in cash.
On a side note
Carillion had 1.5 billion in intangible assets 2 billion in total Total non-current assets it counted for nothing when they made a huge loss and went bust.
Just be aware of all the numbers my 2 pennies worth of input.