Member Info for karv1

End of year forcast.

Net cash 100m

Profits 200m

Final 6 month for shorters

What people/ doom and gloomers keep forgetting about VTY is that it is not a 3 billion company anymore, it's is a 750m company.

200m profit on 3 billion value if Vty was valued at 3billion is poor but not end of the world though.

35 m profit on 750m value would be poor.

200m profit on 750m value is outstanding

Clock is ticking.

Good news is share price is bouncing with with new short highs.

All short stock need to be brought back at some point and the clock is still ticking.

Shorts moved up from 15.37 to 15.87 0.5% up that around 2 million shares near the total of all of yesterday's trades if my math and memory is correct.

It is crazy how 50k of known share trades can drop a company by 24m.

Worst case this will delay recover if goes against us.

Vty profits were fairly low compared to like of PSN Barr tw during those years.

Shorter might feel there not much drop left in Vty compared to other builders that pay dividends and are worth 3 to 4 times Vty

On a positive note the SP has all ready dropped a ton near 75% compared to peers.

It does make you wonder some days. The Way the bad news just keeps flowing out on a timer.

Even if everything goes well we going to have this hanging over us,

I all so agree I would not start a company in the UK.

Everything is against you.

Bottom end 168m over 5 years 840m

Top end 1.4b

What are they going to do with the profits

my view is they have a small dividend and pay of all debts while building cash .

If all debts where gone and holding cash this will be 4 x higher

Long term we can not lose at these prices.

I forgot to post that we are going to be getting A 15.4% sponsored share buy back from our friends Mr Shorts.

Mr Shorts might have friends that we do not about that might buy back even more.

I hoping Mr short does not rush to buy back.

I would like it to rise on its own first.

Time equals profits.

Pre tax profit forcast this year 168m to 268m

With a fire sale in H1 .

Net debt of 140m to net cash 100 m on last update.

2027 pre tax forcast 210m to 310m

With around 4.5 billions on the order book.

Time equals profits

The SP may swing around but even on worst case profits of 168m they going to turbo charge there cash position year after year.

Either all the house builders are 70% to expensive or we are 300% to cheap or somewhere in the middle.

The company makes a ton of cash

The company has a huge order book.

The company has a huge pipeline of land

The company debt is dropping year by year that was caused by buying other companies

The company will be back to net cash by end of year.

People are going to double there money here in time and may eventually even triple there money.

700k of trades in first hour seems high either people taking there profits over last few days or someone trying to push it down.

I thought the shorts had increased again.

It does not matter in the end we are betting on time.

Shorters are betting on endless bad news.

If we were at 600 to 900 price long term shorts can win.

At 270 the shorts have allready won

At 270 time is on our side.

This would be a perfect time for a new big player to invest or CEO purchase if allowed.

We also have 130m+ shorts to buy back in at some point.

All we need is time.

Shorters desperately need bad news.

Forcast Net cash 100m

Not a net debt of 1,3billion

forgot to add the (not) in last message

Order book 2.5b for 2026

Total revenue to be around 3.8b

490m debt - 350m cash=140m net debt

Total needed to cover total spend after 2.5b order book 1.3 b

Total use able loans 1b

= 300m needed in worst case in sales in last 8 months of 2026 to not break loans limits.

Last updare was net cash 100m at end of year.

. net debt of 1 3 billion

Shorters are /were on borrowed time

has that elastic band finally broke time will tell.

2.3m trades today

45m known shares being shorted plus the ones we know nothing about.

That an equivalent to a ton of strong buy days in our future. Not sure how the math would be calculated for percentages to many factors.

All we need now is no new bad news, I think h1 results are well known about in advance.

Final results is going to be the most important results and the expected 2027 profits.

Nearer we get to these final results the less time shorters will have and less profits they will get and more it will push up the SP

Even motley fool/Yahoo seems to be more positive on vty.

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/down-81-2-years-beaten-093000691.html

It's early days but part of me hopes shorters hold for awhile and it rises on it own.

Then shorts can panic sell

On another point the 3% rise is still tiny when you compare to 1.8 rise from TW.

We have dropped to about 25% value compared to TW. so we need 7.2% rise just to keep up with other house builders on the rise.

If Vry become net cash of 100mby end of year and get anywhere near 300m in 2027 , this Sp will trebble if not higher in value,

What other stocks have this opportunity.

Shorters have raised there positions . By 0.46%

No wonder this dropped 7% if 3million shares were sold by shorters, out of the 6 million traded on 15th.

Shorters are making money on shorters,

It will be fun watching the dam brake with the 13.68% of stock to be buys with the added good will factor boost this will give.

As others have said we all know housing market and news are cycles it is only a matter of time.

It is a perfect storm of news

Profit warning in southern division

Shorters smell blood

Second profit warning

Fear and shorters

The war

More fear and shorters

The Board panic fire sale on housing in h1 to low debt and then announce they have cancelled the share buy back .

More fear

More shorters and fear to where a never ending vicious circle has been maintained.

Over the next 5 years when this company has made 1 to 1.5 billion in profits we will have made so much money from VTY using current 780m value . I'm happy long term with my entry point just sad I miss timed the bottom.

Greed from me.

I have 0 doubt this will be back on par with the other house builders in the future on value.

War is Miner effect.

Shorters fear shorters are main reason for drop.

It's painfall holding a stock that going down for no reason.

All house builders are in same boat but they are generally valued at 2 or 3.5 billion after the 30% drops.

Yet Vty profits are not that far from Psn or tw but VTY value is between 25% to 30% of Psn/tw. After the drops

I think Vty board need to do something aggressives against the shorters to defend against this attack.

I imagine this would be announced after final results .