The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
I think this this was just the lemming effect and miss the boat reaction to a price rise,unless some mysterious news pops out.
Do not forget BOE has made it 100% clear it is all about the inflation inflation no matter what happens to the economy.
On the speculation on some news and the volume ,I do not think any corporate trader would risk any type of inside knowledge trading no matter the profit unless they were desperate due to the fall out from the FCA this is just my view maybe they would..
On a side note why would anyone buy a stock when it up 7 or 8 or even 9% with little to no news is beyond my understanding.
Do I believe it undervalued yes but it just bonkers the way the market reacts.
Gl it could go either way after this rise. I was 50/50 on selling so I thought i try a few trades though I still like this for long term.
So I tried to sell half at 396
It did not like my sell or i got shocking timing I do not think any went through so back to plan a.
The risk is already priced In though it may drop more.
The benefit is a possible 300% return with dividends over a few years.
No one will know for at least 6 months.
They looking to bank an extra 400m war chest. While currently sitting on 1.3 to 1.5b reserve.
At the same time an analyst expect around 250m pay out.
Lloy best guess is 15% of there analyst amount.
While analyst back in November have suggested profits and dividends will be flying over next 3 years for CBG.
We find out if any new information is realsed tomorrow,
no one is buying for now people are buying for a possible
2 to 3 fold return within a hand full of years and what could be the best paying dividend.
We will find out in 6 months.
I agree it externally unlikely a take over would happen but Just for pure agreement sake and topic let say it did.
The company had been valued at 2billion in pass so a take over would have cost say 2,5b to 2,75b .
currently has 1.5 billion in assets and is making plenty of money.
Currently valued at say 500m we could now get for 1 billion , the take over boss says with unknown amount of fines that might be nothing to 200m with some extreme views saying 1 billion, so a worst case would be 2 billion cost.
Best case 1 billion for a company that could make 300m pre tax per year in the future. With 1.5 billion in assets it still sounds like a win win for the takeover people.
This reminds me of the guardian article on how the London stock market is failing on values.
One could argue that if any offer for 1 billion happen while knowing they may need more for a worst case pay out they would still be getting CBG cheap .
I would suspect the board would decline any offer around that amount.
With out any news this is going to drift upwards unless institutions start to sell but while they adding this is only going to go up over time. why would it drop 30% the shock and awe is over.
On the update
We expect to report overall group AOP of approximately £94 million. After group (central functions) Net expenses.
My question is net expenses mean after tax?
I have always thought Net means after everything
With the central functions wording does this mean just net after this but before tax?
Is it me or is the volume going down each day.
With leverage ratio of 12.7% roughly 1.3 billion as of dec 31 and profits of around 150m+ for 2024 that got to be at least 500m spare cash to stay above regulated requirements. If I have done my math correctly.