Member Info for karv1

Externally I mean extremely Agreement I mean argument it hard to check the text on a phone they really need to add an edit button. Like the other chat

I agree it externally unlikely a take over would happen but Just for pure agreement sake and topic let say it did.

The company had been valued at 2billion in pass so a take over would have cost say 2,5b to 2,75b .

currently has 1.5 billion in assets and is making plenty of money.

Currently valued at say 500m we could now get for 1 billion , the take over boss says with unknown amount of fines that might be nothing to 200m with some extreme views saying 1 billion, so a worst case would be 2 billion cost.

Best case 1 billion for a company that could make 300m pre tax per year in the future. With 1.5 billion in assets it still sounds like a win win for the takeover people.

1billion is nonsense it would be like returning 8% of everything lent on a authorised FCA system.

It seems confidents is returning institutions are buying

This reminds me of the guardian article on how the London stock market is failing on values.

One could argue that if any offer for 1 billion happen while knowing they may need more for a worst case pay out they would still be getting CBG cheap .

I would suspect the board would decline any offer around that amount.

With out any news this is going to drift upwards unless institutions start to sell but while they adding this is only going to go up over time. why would it drop 30% the shock and awe is over.

I can not edit I have got the answer I was looking for.

On the update

We expect to report overall group AOP of approximately £94 million. After group (central functions) Net expenses.

My question is net expenses mean after tax?

I have always thought Net means after everything

With the central functions wording does this mean just net after this but before tax?

I reckon anyone trying to short this stock is starting to get worried. I have no idea if we get an up day tomorrow but if we do I reckon most shorts will bail out.

It's all looking good . Lloyds probably had a massive legal team looking into this compared to cbg.

If the ratio on payouts between Lloyds and cbg were correct from analysts then this is amazing news.

On lloy chat they saying only 450m provision for FCA investigation. Not checked results my self.

Seems small for Lloyds

Is it me or is the volume going down each day.

With leverage ratio of 12.7% roughly 1.3 billion as of dec 31 and profits of around 150m+ for 2024 that got to be at least 500m spare cash to stay above regulated requirements. If I have done my math correctly.

It would be funny if they did a share buy back ,but no nothing will happen until FCA reports.

80milion required for dividend

2022 after tax profits and write down 165m.

2023 from memory was around 80m including the 110m write down which started the share price drop .

6months update 2024 from memory adjust profits 120m

After FCA all sorted we have a core business that in normal times makes 165m after tax profits with ,,80m dividend with coverage . that has dropped 70% in value

When the dividend returns there no guarantees but it should be at 19% do the other 2 pay 19%

I know there risk but i think the panic has been over done against the possible returns

Future dividend of 19% that has a good chance of growing and is cover what's not to like. compound dividend on this could be crazy plus possible huge share price rise.

CBG is a very healthy company from what I can see.

Its a money making machine. Its had some clinches along the way but the core is sound.

I think this is going to be one heck of a roller-coaster ride over the nest 6 months.

I done my calculations and researched best I can .

I stuck my ISA into this it will either lose me my money or make me a million over time. Are there risk yes but the returns could be 400% over time. I am betting I am right with the 400%

Time will tell.

If your 650 m was correct,first of the FCA have to rule it against us .

Then you have to take into account claim %

Deaths

Dealers gone bust

Any legal contracts which prevent claims from dealers clients.

That would probably knock your 650 million done to 300m

And if all else fails if the motor division is classed as it own business just close it down 1 bad reputation knock is better than a 3 year drag.

All 3 copied from CBG site

From January 2021 onwards* - Risk Adjusted Pricing Model

CBMF introduced an enhanced model which set the rate for the customer and adjusted the rate

according to the customer risk profile. Dealer discretion was removed entirely. Under the Risk Adjusted

Pricing Model, commission, if any, was/is paid as a fixed percentage of the loan size.

All historic models included a “hard cap” on the commission amount paid to the broker or dealer.

From 2016 to January 2021* – Downward Scaled Commission Model

CBMF introduced a Downward Scaled Commission Model, which capped both the interest charged to

the customer and commission paid to the dealer or broker. This meant that CBMF set the headline rate

for the customer and the dealer could only reduce this by sacrificing their level of commission. Under

the Downward Scaled Commission Model, commission, if any, was paid as a percentage of the loan

size.

Q. How have your commission models in the motor finance market evolved over time?

Over the past years, we have sought to ensure we complied with the relevant regulatory requirements.

Pre-2016* - Difference in Charges (“DIC”) or Upward DIC Commission Model

Close Brothers Motor Finance (“CBMF”) operated an Upwards DIC Commission Model. This allowed

the dealer or broker full discretion over the customer rate and the commission earnt on point-of-sale

finance, subject to a hard cap on the amount of commission. Under the Upwards DIC, commission, ifany, was paid as a percentage of the total interest paid by the customer. This model was prevalent

across the industry and was in line with the regulations in place at the time.