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Does anyone know where the money has been spent if dividend is covered

Asset sold 75m long term debt paid 60m missing 15m

Shory term debt increased 10m

That wierd time due debt went from 10m to 20m

3m cash

What was this money used for probably a simple answer. But I do not know

Is the dividend covered?

I struggle to fully understand results but

Asset sold 75m

Debt paid of 60 m

Cash 3m

Short term debt up 10m

Total look-through debt plus 10m thought I do not understand this.

25 to 35m down was this used for dividend? And buy back?

With above numbers rate was fixed with 38% was fixed at 81mwh dropping to 53 next year then 50.

Whats about the preference shares how are these going to be paid back with dropping prices and a devalued portfolio?

Peeople on other chat have stated a fairly high risk longer term for this stock. For dividends and SP.

People on here are more positive what am I missing?

Population is increasing at a rapid rate, even if house builders managed to increase output we still be mega short on housing that is required to keep up with demand.

On a day like today this is not looking bad for VTY down far less than other house builders.

vty down 1.2%

psn down 1.97%

bwy down 2.12%

tw. down 3.71%

btrw down 4.4%

All the house builders follow the same trends . if anything you could argue that the partnership section is more inline with the government position for affordable housing than the rest of the market.

They have 3.2b Inventories with 3.3billion total assets even if you remove the Goodwill and

Intangible assets rubbish, they still have 2b net assets on a value of 1.8 billion. that makes fairly decent profits that will only go up. after this years profit warnings.

Then you take into account interest rate may fall over the next year or 2

Then you take note of possible return of 1 billion to shareholders over the next 3 years with possible extended time frame now.

Then you take into account share buy back and the close short positions that will eventually happen and at someone point this Share price is going to rocket up on what time frame no one knows.

2013 bovis worth 1.1billion medium house size builder

bovis buys linden homes for 1.1 billion

VTY buys Countryside Partnerships 1.25b

VTY currently worth 1.8b and is now one of the largest house builder in UK

Barratts worth 6b

psn worth 4.3b

tw. worth 4.1 b

VTY worth 1.8b

Look at the average SP over 5 years 3 high points of 1300+ near half the time around 900+ we just need to be patience.

Some people will be laughing all the way to the bank with this stock in time.

Others will be kicking them self's. for panic selling or not buying.

The fundamentals are sound.

Everyone knows analyst follows the market direction

On a company with sound fundamentals that has dropped like a rock is when people should buy , I personally win more than i lose time shall tell i placed my 200k bet. GL all

I keep thinking of investing again in CBG but the risk just seems to high.

Part of me thinks this is all to crazy it can't happen other wise where would it stop but at the same time

The appeal court decline the appeal stating there is nothing to challenge,

from my understanding it a point on common law the FCA will not fight it and we heard nothing from the government.

So then you have to take the view it going to happen.

So we then do the maths and it does not look good.

CBG have no idea or are not willing to say what they think the total pay out could be.

If the big investors were confident on CBG being fine we would be £700+ on 142m pre tax.

So we are left with the trapped and the gamblers shareholders , with the current information .

betting that the confidence will return to CBG.

I think the courts are saying it is all down to the banks as a duty of care.

I am not 100% on the commission but

from 2016 CBG capped the upper interest for the DCA and in 2021 the FCA banned the practice.

I think the dealers got more commission the higher the interest was,

From 2016 to 2021 with the upper DCA the commission would of been less but this depends on how high the cap was.

The cap was it just to stop the worst 10% of dealers ripping people of badly or was it a fair deal who knows.

From what I read dealers were making a big chunk of there profits from the commissions depending on the loan size.

Unsure if CBG did this or not i can not remember where i read it, I think there were deals where the dealers got a portion of the interest but less commission which makes the DCA FCA thing very messy but this was before the court case.

CBG banked 400m to deal with the DCA interest fall out .

Now all the commission and interest might need to be repaid which is way more.

If CBG had 400k of customers from 2007 to 2021 50% to 100% might of been on a DCA and CBG banked 400m

Now if CBG had up to 500k to 800k of customers if you take ithis into account that the loan book really started to take of from 2012 time frame day 0 to 10/2024 that were probably 100% commission how much money is need now?

Interest claims from 2007 TO 2021 IF it happens. 400k+ customers plus interest . semi guess

Commission claims if it happens 600 or 700 or 800k of customers beginning of trading until 10/2024 total guess

plus the yearly 8% interest. I doubt there would be fines.

If someone wanted they could work out the number of customers add all the loans up using yearly results and the average loan amounts divided by years of average loans from many of the results, this would give you a rough customers number. for both FCA review and commissions.

or there s probably a simpler way.

Commission claims until a few weeks ago.

I think Interest was capped from 2016. FCA review interest claims would end in 2021 some people are on 4/5 year loans could still be paying it now.

I would agree the £183 pounds sounds good.

Keep in mind the FCA earlier review claimed the average for a 10k loan was 1k commission from 60 companies they excluded the higher commission rates. from memory.

Unless they have already done it they might let the supreme Court thing go. And argue this was an individual case. To buy time to build capital and let one of the big boys take it on to save costs. They would throw the kitchen sink at this.

Common sense has nothing to do with this sadly.

FCA have already said in there update that this is not a financial rule it is a common law rule.

THe appeal Court seem to think on this issue it full proof.

THe FCA said they would enforce the law.

That is the risk

Cbg have no idea on what they might need to cover the commissions.

Is the whole reason why this stock had dropped 50% from the last big drop from when the FCA announced there review and the reason the dividend was stopped.

If you want to play with CBG you got to be willing to lose your money at a fast rate but at the same time the returns could be amazing.

High risk high rewards.

Time frame will make little difference , unless they can really drag it out,

i was calculating over 640m way before the court case raised the bar to include commission up to 2024,

But if we just use the 640m worst case this will add 51m interest per year.

I have to take your word on share rights i do not understand the rules well enough but i always thought that if the cet1 falls below the regulated % the FCA can insist that they raise money, was my understanding no matter how much the shares get diluted to.

If that 640m+ or worst happens there will be a share right issue.

This is A simple gamble worst case will lead to a vast dilution of shares

Best case you could make 4+ times your money back.

RLL93

The only information i recall from memory 2015 results saying they served over 300k of customer in the motor division. no idea from what date.

The motor loan book was small in 2007 and really starting to take of from 2012.

Roughly from memory around 16b lent out from 2007 to 2021

Amount of customers at A Total guess 2007 2021 involved with the FCA review maybe 400k to 500k of customers. no idea what % had DCA

Commission from start day until 2024 a total guess again 500k to 800k of customers with a very high percentage being commission, depending on future court cases.

I think i read somewhere that they had 80k of customers last year but this might of included all sections.

So many possibilities depends where you put the numbers and percentages and what you included or not include, as things currently stand it going to be bad it just how bad it will be no one knows, and this could all change depending on future events.

Will there be a good bounce today?

I bet there are tons of traders waiting to jump in. but are worried we have not found the bottom yet. At what point does the scales of reward v risk tip over.

Hi Rick I would very wary on expecting a 30% dividend.

I think with the latest information the best out come if everything went Cbg direction will be a 2 to 1 coverage on dividend maybe 15% in a few years time.

But the odds of everything going Cbg way is low.

I think once everything is sorted after all the possible outcomes.

THe dividend will be more likely an average ftse payout.

Sorry for the bad grammar, I need to stop messaging from the phone it is a mess, others might say I need to stop messaging full stop hehe.

The experts claims that the appeal court judgement is a common law judgement not a financial law judgement so the FCA will not raise a finger to change it. They will enforce the judges decision.

Many companies could be hit hard like CBG and VANQ

CBG because it could be hit by the FCA review for hundreds of millions.

CBG at least still makes good profits.

CBG already is a very weaken position finds it self in real hot water if the commission appeal case is upheld at the supreme court.

VANQ on the other has nothing to worry about with the FCA review, but it is also in a very weak position due to losing a ton of money and still being a lost making company .

When this commission appeal judgment came out, it was terrible timing for VANQ.

www.fca.org.uk/news/statements/court-appeal-judgment-hopcraft-johnson-wrench#:~:text=Update%3A%2029%20October%202024&text='Last%20Friday%2C%20the%20Court%20of,informed%20consent%20to%20the%20payment.

The appeal judgement on commissions could cost hundreds of millions. for many companies that use brokers. including CBG and VANQ