Member Info for karv1

I personally think analysts are clueless they seem to follow the prices rather than predict the prices. House builders are near impossible to predict in this type of market. it is not like someone that sells jam jars to the same customer for 10 years, who say we hoping to sell a few more but raw materials have gone up 5% an analyst can make a good crack at guessing the profits.
Housing The BOE is guessing every month.
Inflation 10%
rates 4%
The economy is changing every month.
House prices are changing every month.
The job market is still strong.
The war.
Gas prices.
The weather.
Unknown items. x these all together and you get the best guess.
As banburyboy said those numbers might be out of date.
The analysts are 100% different from each other with the same information.
The person who has a low 98.4p Is probably explaining to his boss that it was a typing mistake.

(For 2023, Yahoo have PSN EPS at 126.8p, however, this has drifted down steeply over time.)
It makes you wonder where they find these people and how they can up with these numbers.
They had 1 billion forward sales at end of the year equals around 200 TO 250 m profits. which may be the same or different properties to the
3900 units on the balance sheet unsure if this means being built or built but equals 35% of last year's builds this amount of housing should also equal 300m but there is probably an overlap on the 259 sites and old sites. To hit EPS 126. The company at this rate could pack up by JULY/AUGUST and just go on holiday to hit that EPS of 126.
To this date no housing crash a slow down yes a crash nope.
On the dividend, my guess is 110p minimum 125p a possibility of 140p unlikely 150p very remote. depend on how the figures look so far into the first q1.
My logic behind those numbers is that the PSN board pride itself in being one of the best payers to drop below the likes of VTY and the rest of the pack while still making tonnes of money, even at 110p would be covered 2 fold on last year profits after tax.

They said 259 sites this year v 260 last year and this could be raised if conditions improved.

On a side note, it's not all about money.
Whether it's peer pressure,.family pressure, or pride.
Many people in the UK desire to own their own property this all adds to a value for the buyer that you can not calculate in mortgage repayment.

Interest rates are a double edge sword for buyers.
Zoopla's boss a few months ago said even at a 5 % interest rate it is still cheap to buy than to rent in many parts of the UK
People who want to buy and see renting as a waste of money might delay buying but at the same time feel like they are sitting on a time bomb of wanting to move out from their parent's house or facing being 1 of those 4.6 million private renters in England households who rent, seeing their rent going up by insane amount due to the landlord charging, even more, to cover their interest rate on there buy to let mortgages.

I still think PSN with 800m cash at the end of the year with 3900 plots on the balance sheet should equal 300m profit with best case 1.1b in cash by the end of Q1 depending on land creditors, which I do not really understand how those calculations are made, plus any other land
i hope that 350m to sort out the historical problem payout has already been set aside in 2022 figures.
This will leave the company with a large cash flow if the doom and gloomers are correct and the dividend turns out to be 200m aka 70p.
PSN could have in the best-case scenario 1.5b + cash by end of the year on a company value of 4.6b
Unlike other companies where the money gets lost, PSN operation is fairly simple compared to banks and the money will just keep getting banked in one way or another we will get returns in time.

The problem with compound calculators and investing for over 22 years is that the real world will cause you to keep draining the funds, and very few people will have the willpower and financial power to let the money build very high compared to their yearly income.
I have fallen for this. The compound interest calculator what could be in 5 or 10 or 20 years the money starts to go to insane numbers and it is hard, well done to anyone that's done it for the last 22 years it's hard.
Mine is split between normal and ISA over 5 years and is up 50% it was up a lot more,
anyone in PSN will know why , I've had to dip my hands in a few times on normal account. I manage to keep to 1 rule and never touch the ISA but it is hard for the average people to hit those dream numbers.

When you look at safe companies that could make you huge returns in time. PSN has to be in the top 5.
I have been playing with other stocks but could BARC LLOY lgen rio mng to name just a few double their value within 5 years there is no chance.
Could PSN yes very possible with a ton of cash and assets with only trading liabilities and no borrowings with an endless supply of customers and a huge land supply and cash.
From the trading update, We ended the year with a strong and well-capitalized balance sheet with c. £860m of cash and c. £475m of land creditors. We also start 2023 with a healthy level of work in progress with c. 3,900 equivalent units on the balance sheet.

01 Mar 2023 final results. Near everything is already out there The dividend news will be the main thing and paid in Q2 2023 and in the last half.
The best guess is the minimum will be 110p split in half 55p each. but I hope for something around 140p to 160p a 40% to 30% drop from the current pay out, I think a 110p which is a 55% cut would be too much, I hope again that the board pride will maintain PSN as one the best for shareholder returns for a housing company even after the cuts. but I guess this will all depend on how the figures look at the moment.
22 March 2022 09.30am UKHouse Price Index for January 2022.
26 Apr 2023 Trading Update this will be a good indicator of how the year is going.

When I look at Rightmove i still see houses selling like hotcakes.
In England, the December data shows that, on average, house prices have fallen 0.2% since November 2022. The annual price rise of 10.3% takes the average property value to £315,119.
I do not see anything even getting close to 5% or 10.3 % in housing prices.
Evidence suggests any drop has been tiny so far and from general viewing still seeing lots of sold properties and they say we might have peaked on inflation.
What happens when all those people saving for a deposit decide that they will enter the market no matter if it's 4 months or 12 months, those buyers will equal more buyers later?
Buying a house is a mindset game, while the job market holds strong and once the BOE stops talking us into a recession

I like badjob would also like to know where all the profit from the last 15 years has gone, year after year see huge profits with small payouts but tier 1 never seems to improve by much.
Shareholders fund not changing much, i normally always see similar numbers if anything tier1 has gone down, yet every year we see anything from3b to 7b attributed profits times this by 15 years with an average 20% payout where is the missing 30 to 40+billion, i don't see it in shareholder fund.
and where is the 2.5% interest on that money times 15 years?
I think companies just to get too big or to complex to the point where even the people inside do not understand what is going on, there is no surprise people keep making mistakes and getting fined.

If these experts are correct and this is a big if. Savills claims a 10% drop in prices in 2023 which will take us back to the start of 2022 prices in real terms when PSN was making 1 billion a year.
Prices to then bounce back +18% over 5 years.
It makes PSN sell-off look so overdone with a 50% drop. PSN H1 interim results June 30 was 439m profit on 6652 houses this would have been on h2 2021 and H1 2022 prices roughly a 10%+ drop from current prices. Guidance for full-year BUILDS 14500 to 15000= 1billion on those same prices. If this same price stayed for 2023 then the dividend will stand.

From June INTERIM New home completions 6,652= 439m profit. guidance for end of year 14500 to 15000.
15000=8350 in second part of year = at a guess = 600m+ total for year 1billion+
Forward order book 2.32 billion.
Currently over 90% forward sold for the current year.
BrickWorks, TileWorks and Space4 factories all increasing output, providing supply resilience and efficiency;
Managing the balance of inflationary pressures effectively - housing gross margin2 up on same period last year (31.0% vs 30.9%)
Our average private selling price of £267,325 is c.20% below the UK’s national average selling price7, demonstrating the enduring strength of our value offer to customers.
At June 0.78 billion -July dividend then add on 10 months of profits pre-tax at a guess around 800m =around 1 billion in cash by April 2023 depending on any other lands buy and unknowns.
I would imagine if 90% were sold by June then by November I would suspect a big chunk of 2023 is already sold even if the forward sale has gone down compared to past years.

I personally think if they have anywhere near 1 billion in cash by April 2023 the dividend will stand unless 2023 goes insanely downhill and house prices do not just drop a bit but crash and burn. caused by part by the BOE self-inflicting recession turning into a full-blown depression. then all bets are off.

The virus year I just rounded out has this was a unique year.

Lloy claims house prices will drop by 8% in 2023 and NatWest claims 7% .
If this is true it would take us all the way back to March prices of 2022
UK house prices in March
2017 £216K PSN payout 135p
2018 £224K PSN payout 235p
2019 £226K PSN payout 235p
2020 £231K PSN payout 235p
2021 £256K PSN payout 235p
2022 March £278K PSN payout 235p
2022 August £295k
Rightmove claims prices were higher in September.
The world is not going to end in 2023 People need a reality check.
No one can predict the future.

70p is a riddiculas statement, that logic is so floored for so many reasons.
One could argue that they might remove the 2nd surplus dividend payment for the time being ( I do think this will happen) but to suggest they going to pay 70p around 200m from 1 billion+ profit in 2022 is just nonsense.

If they can hit their target of 15k of new housing at 245k+ their housing revenue will be 3.7b+
The new housing operating margin of 31%
Then the dividend will be covered.
I am expecting a good trading update on November 8th
I am guessing what everyone will be looking at is the Current forward sales position.

I think the direction of PSN SP will be decided by a battle between the BOE and the government.
A. BOE WINS interest rates go through the roof house prices crash.
B Government WINS new planning policy, new housing help to buy BOE is stopped from keep raising rates, house prices go up in line with inflation.
C. A bodge mixture everyone saves face BOE stays independent rates go up by a small amount. house prices stagnate.

The Conservatives will do whatever they think is needed to stay in power and they will destroy the BOE independence if they get into the mindset that BOE is part of the problem of them getting re-elected.

I took a 50k punt on poly back when it really crashed looking at the insane dividend even with the odds that it might get nationalized and on the day that it dropped to its lowest by a huge percentage, I missed the buy by like 0.5%.
It is like all stocks no one can foresee the future, no one can foresee world events, government policies,

I am sitting on a huge loss as well.
1 of my reasons for a dividend stock like PSN was if The SP did fall you got the dividends until the SP recovers.
So I then look at the fundamentals of PSN, it has money with no debt + inventory . I would have preferred that the stock had gone up with dividends but we are where we are. So I look forward to adding to my position by 20% per year from the Dividends, knowing one day the wheel will turn.

I know inflation is seen as the enemy by everyone but think it could be fairly good, yes interest rates may go up but I suspect the government will not allow it to move by much otherwise It makes the spending cut pointless.

The inflation is currently running at 10%+ per year if this carries on over 1 to 3 years or even 5 years, people's salaries will start going up by a lot, a 30k salary could be like 48k over 5 years with 10% inflation. do we really think PSN will still be selling houses for 245k or if we believe the doom and gloomers with their 40% drop prediction so equal 150k, I would say this is very unlikely, the general rule of thumb is everything always goes up in time, most things like salaries/ housing rent never goes down once they go up.