I think most will sign the new contract when the time comes tho it sucks for them.
I read somewhere that 2 unions have already agreed but gmb with 8000 have voted to strike, some will not strike and will sign the new contract. job worth type.
1/3 will be panicking because there going to be skint after Christmas and would a terrible time to not have a job, it will not be worth the risk of losing your job and would have signed and some without saying so.
An amount will go through with the strike and even if more do strike when it comes down to it they will sign.
BG engineers/ boiler / domestic appliance engineers earn way more in the total package even after cuts than the standard engineers from other companies and they know they would be crazy to leave.
BG boiler engineers are on decent money many and many factors come into play.
How long until my gas card is due to renew if it is under 6 months to a year no one would leave until they had it renewed due to the pre-training and cost and time they would have to pay for.
Most workers are the main wage earners in their families and will not want to lose their jobs.
Many will be institutionalized into a way of working as they been there so long but not ready to retire.
Bg pensions are like gold for older engineers.
Many will be newer people that are not ready to leave and their terms are not that different.
It will be over soon and Centrica will win it is a heartless ruthless view but it is the way the world works now.
Centrica is not a monopoly anymore so the government has no need to get involved.
Some engineers would be happy to leave as they were going to retire soon anyway so they can stand on their principles.
MP,s have no power other than writing letters.
Normal customers won't care they just want cheap bills
Unions do not have the power of the truly committed numbers anymore.
My view on how this is going to pan out.
PVI1
I did the same I think my first trade on AV was around 210 and did tomes of trades around the 230 to 270 range then sold out missed the rise to 305 but brought back in when it came back down to 258 and kept them up to around 315. I have done amazing out of AV, I have doubled my money and most of this is due to my AV trades.
I suffer from itchy fingers. The grass is always greener somewhere else problem, on average I win 3 lose 2 on trades, you could be right. but I always try to pick a stock that has a good future if the trade goes south badly and I decide not to sell. as I do not use stop loss.
I have sold GL all, took small profit time to move on, I have no doubt this stock will go higher but the 10% swing in 3 days with no news was too much and I brought in on a huge trading day for CNA which I did not realize plus took me an hour to sell due to volumes today. it still on my possible investment list.
The margins are thin.
5.2 billion borrowings + 522 pension many bonds have long dates if i recall correctly.
You have 2.8 billion on sale
1.2 billion spirt
600 on nuclear
That's 4.6 billion minus any tax plus 750m free flow cash or 1.6 billion Cash and cash equivalents and anything else they sell.
In the interim which covered the covid time scale, we had 343 adjusted profits, 147m after-tax interest. before losses
Lost was made up of 750 million impairments that should go with asset sales.
and restructuring costs of £251m which is part of the 400 million cost-cutting programs.
Loss of future profits on the sold USA operation is going to be less than the interest CNA will not have to pay if they are able to pay down the debt straight away.
Will they go bust no
Once assets are sold and the debt is taken down by a lot,
you have an Adjusted operating profit of around 500 to 600m per year, then we get 200 million saved on interest.
you have hundreds of millions on cost savings /pasted old post-Centrica said on Tuesday that it would now target an even larger cost reduction, aiming for £1 billion annualised efficiencies over the 2019-2022 period.
The company only valued at 2.42 billion
Centrica/bg is a service provider they do not need large assets.
I hate when a company plays with their numbers to make their figure look good even if it helps pay for the dividend.
Somewhere in the past when the borrowing was a lot lower the boss said we can pay a huge dividend because our net asset has gone up a lot ie our goodwill and right of access or some other rubbish, we just raise the borrowing to pay for it, we have it covered anyway with our assets, Then one day the losses come along and the new boss goes well can't we just borrow more against our net assets. The bank says not really those assets can not pay for the debt they're kind of worthless you need to sell stuff or make huge cutbacks.
The problem you get is most board-level managers just bounce from 1 company to another nm how good or bad they are. The other type is grown through the company and they are even worst, normally either yes men/women or terrible at their jobs but think they're great and everyone below them is terrible. sadly many companies are run like this.
Does anyone have any ideas or thoughts as if or when the dividend will be restored and will it be the 5p still?
They have had an amazing rally way more than the rest of the market, and it may continue.
To answer the 200p question in my view.
1 It would be the track record of losses over 4 years even tho a few times now they have said things have improved.
2 It would be the cash position, which looks great on the front page and you would hope they would pay great dividends but when you look deeper on the balance sheet they can not.
Depending on any new information.
I think 21p seems cheap.
When this starts trading again are people expecting a rise or fall?
I would imagine a huge rise but you never know.
Redceo That's a fair comment, I do post a lot when I get a view that I believe is right or wrong or to debate it or to understand it. I will stay off the AV boards for a while, let everyone have a break from me, GL with your investments.
Porsche. has been right though this has tho just been pure luck or a flip of a coin, no one knew what was in the update for the 3rd quarter.
Since Oct 30 his first post-LGEN up 40% AV up 30%.
Nothing worst than someone getting it right with no information to back it up. and just makes a guess and claims great knowledge. you should of listen extra extra .
On the golden ticket
On the positive side, AV seems not to be bothered about it at all and I think someone said CFO brush it off saying it covered It has been reported they are trying to sell AV France for billions.
On the negative side, this story seems to appear in what I class as proper papers in The times, ft , independent, and sites like Forbes and not joker papers or sites over the last 1 to 7 years with information being very limited from other sources.
So people will have to make their own minds up.
I would be happy a with 5% rise in a day or a week or even a month and when you make it, the hardest thing is not to lose it again on the next day. I am always giving myself 12 monthly targets but I never keep to them.
Something normally happens or I find a new target that I think could have a better outcome. and sometimes the grass is not greener somewhere else. You win some and you lose some.
nicknaim post makes think about being positive instead of negative I asked a few questions on the other chat and did not really get an answer over the weekend. not that it their job to answer my questions.
I got more nervous over the weekend and the gut feeling that it does not feel right mainly because i do not understand the logic of AV actions and then to top it was the GOLDEN TICKET story pushed me over the edge with more news on it today.
On the other chat board, there are a few people that have very good knowledge of the business and they seem to think this is all good news, it is just possible that all this is good news and i just do not have the understanding as I look at very basic lines
Net profit loss debt dividends assets liabilities current and non-current.
insurances companies are extremely complicated to understand.
GL all
I do feel for the long-term shareholders of AV. The company should not be where it is, It should have been a safe bet while giving at the time decent returns. They could have paid a 10 to 14% dividend on current profits and not touched the surplus or sell anything snd just grown the business.
Aviva is a good company being run badly and now is going to be cannibalized, but I think there are going to be good peaks on the share price while the asset sales go on so there is a good chance of getting your money back.
Sometime between now and when most of the large assets are sold the AV share price will peak before it starts to drop after the debt and buybacks and specials drain a lot of the excess funds and the share price drops to reflect the Aviva light with far lower profits.
The problem will be why will long-term investors join due to a tipping point after asset sales once the money is used and the share price has peaked.
The share price hit 550 a year or 2 ago and it hit 20 billion value at a guess making 2.5 billion after-tax,
How is it ever going to get anywhere near that when it only makes 1.4 billion after-tax on Aviva's core business.
People have spoken about the 5 to 7 billion in asset sales but I can not get past the thinking that I wanted long term with great returns from this current share price.
Very basically 2019 profits shareholder funds after-tax 2.6 billion x 10 years = 26 billion-plus surplus
New AV going by AV numbers 1 BILLION to shareholders after tax but i I am guessing nearer 1.4 billion x 10 years = 14 billion-plus surplus
Not counting growth that i am guessing would be between 3% and 10% on those numbers.
Even if my number is some way off and I stuck my whole pension into av for 25 years I can not see how new av would have beaten old AV.