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AV. 0.8 up v LGEN 4.4% up at the time of writing this, I would love to be able to ask AV senior management why this is.
We all know why it and would be amazing having the CEO answer that question.
Least it up there are 2 ways to look at it,
I guess eventually either we will catch up with LGEN in the future or we get to see LGEN in the future fall far more than us.
You can not look at the last big dividend this is when GFRD including linden homes that made all the profit 58p was when the share price was 700+, I think they declared a 1p dividend not sure if it ever got paid.
linden homes went to bovis that made huge profits
GFRD the partnership went to Bovis and made small profits.
GFRD construction remained losses every year for last pass 4 year
I look at the net cash/debt and i always look at the Non-current assets when a company is not making huge profits incase there is a chance of losses, because i feel these numbers then become very important.
I think if I was to pick out of these 3 I would pick in this order. numbers from memory could be wrong.
COST bigger profit margins on pass profits, lower losses, better asset positions. semi-safe bet with 179m net including Non-current assets 140m.
GFRD smaller profit margins more losses than COST smaller asset position semi-safe safe with 120m net including 157m Non-current assets.
KIER bigger profit margins huge losses huge debt very risky 250m net inc 1.3 billion of Non-current assets very risky.
Gratz on people that called it correctly, I did not see this happening, these are the days you live for when playing the stock market 26% up.
Can I vote for the LGEN management to run AVIVA this could be a good question to raise at the next AGM.
Due to a total lack of communication between the shareholders and the management, I believe that LGEN management would run Aviva better than the current management team.
1 communication AVIVA share price could be 20% higher if we had better communication.
2 a plan of action
3 returns on sp value
4 returns on dividends
5 The feeling that LGEN management understands their shareholders and Aviva management do not care.
6 AVIVA makes tons of money and has billions of spare money
7 Management have turned AVIVA into a money/value trap for many shareholders.
8 When you see shareholders commenting on the hope that someone takes over AVIVA .
What else can you say other than this company is run badly.
How to put this into a question.
It is not just KIER many companies do it using intangible assets claiming mega-money on their books against their debts.
KIER 720 million intangible assets are enough to buy GFRD and COST 4 times over.
An intangible asset is an asset that is not physical in nature. Goodwill, brand recognition and intellectual property, such as patents, trademarks, and copyrights, are all intangible assets.
JUST FOR FUN sorry if you have lost money on KIER please do not take offense.
CAN you imagine a world where they did not count it and you minus the 720million intangible assets from their book their net debt would be near a billion in borrowing?
Mr CEO goes to MR HSBC and says we like to borrow another 300 million,
Mr HSBC says what to take your borrowing to 1.3 billion.
MR CEO no we thought we could use intangible assets against it and say make it 720 million due to our brand ect. so our borrowing goes down to say 300 million and on this calculation, it would be 600 million total with new borrowing this should see us through.
MR HSBC ok what's your company worth.
MR CEO around 90 million.
MR HSBC what profit have you made.
MR CEO well we lost money last year we going to lose money this year we might lose money next year.
MR HSBC oh erm
MR HSBC Phone dial tone
MR CEO hello hello Mr HSBC are you there?
I just posted on GFRD similar to this, Kier debt is huge 1.3 billion Non-current assets which most of it counts for nothing 720 million is Intangible assets aka what the brand is worth in real term it not real money.
The 950 million owed in trade payments is.
The 760 million borrowings is.
The 413 million cash is as well with all the rest of the stuff
Another way of looking at it
Total assets of 2.5 billion
Total liabilities 2.25 billion leaving 250 million equity but out of that 2.25 billion is 1.3 billion Non-current assets around billion of that would be near impossible to turn in cash.
On a side note
Carillion had 1.5 billion in intangible assets 2 billion in total Total non-current assets it counted for nothing when they made a huge loss and went bust.
Just be aware of all the numbers my 2 pennies worth of input.
I been looking into GFRD thinking of maybe investing they don,t actually in real money have 197 million in cash in so many words.
Total assets of 656 which 245million in tradeable that they are owed and 197 million in cash and 156 million are intangible assets of which 40 million is ppp
Total liabilities 505 million which the big one is Trade and other payables 458 million.
Total net cash/debt is 120 million but then if you think about it out of the 157million intangible asset it is not real money so you could argue that they have no money or maybe 20 to 30 million depending on ppp investments if I have understood it correctly.
Carillion had 1.5 billion in intangible assets 2 billion in total Total non-current assets it counted for nothing when they made a huge loss and went bust.
I know GFRD is nothing like this but if GFRD makes a loss for a 5th year in a row in real terms they will have to borrow.
Did,t they say the 6p was a compromise between paying shareholders and keeping back funds so I guess depends on how much you look into the words.
I think Amanda wants far less debt and will sell everything and cut back dividends until it has gone.
People like dc brought at 500+ for a 6% return but bad management and events in the world cause the SP to drop 50% now new management come in and I am guessing their line of thoughts is why are we paying 11%+ dividend on SP of 280..
We have all this debt even tho profit covers the dividends easily 2x with 12 billion surplus. they probably slash the dividend and build it up over the next 5 years dragging the SP are slowly while patting themself on the back on what an excellent job they have done, while at the time the older shareholders that have suffered for the last few years can suffer for another 5 years.
It the problem with new people coming in all the time. no responsibility for previous years. The could be 6 and 15p or less or more in time I think we get back to 30p+ tho over many years unless a new CEO by then has a new plan.
Yes is a very big risk.
If joe takes Nevada it game over for trump this should stable the markets and send the markets up i hope.
The US DOW future is currently 400 up and this should maintain or go up more dragging the FTSE up as well more often than not banks will go positive my average on BARC was when it was 2% down today.
There is a lot of if, buts, maybe, and crossed fingers.
With good luck, I could be back in AV later
With bad luck i am going to be in BARC for a while.
In the crazy world we live in the BOE just raised another 150 billion if I have read correctly to a new total of 850 billion of new money which should dilute our currency and the pound should drop but the pound has gone up.
It just shows you how strong of an effect when the top financial people all think it a good idea ie the belief and trust against what should happen where the pound should drop like a rock.
On another thought I do not understand why the FTSE is going down so much TRUMP like him or hate him is more likely to offer us a trade deal as he backs BREXIT which can only strengthen the UK position If JOE wins I think our position will become weaker as he does not seem to be a fan of BREXIT at all.
Looks like trump might pull it off I am guessing the markets did not expect this we gone from near 1% up last night to 1.8% down on futures, I suspect banks with all financials are going to take a pounding it seems the market does not like unknown factors.
Can not turn back the clock , I just hope Amanda blanc knows what she is doing and has a plan with all these assets sales.
With 1 million in shares at least it shows faith in the company and her own self-belief.
We got to give her some time.
I am here for now unless I see a new opportunity to roll the dice again.
Sold last 60k of BARC when it was 4.5% up today. yep kind of gutted on the HSBC SP lost out on around 5% difference between AV and HSBC over the last few days, I am good at holding while it goes down but i always sell to fast when it goes up.
I believe AV will hit over 300 again soon.
The dividends will make or break this stock it what matters to most people.
The uncertainty of what is going to happen with it.
Selling the assets seems so short-sighted to me with my limited understanding.
I do not understand the numbers but for argument sake, if the french unit is worth 2 to 3 billion as some have suggested on an operating profit of 450m let's say around 300 million after everything is taken out, it will be like a 10 % + return for the new owners. against maintaining the debt which I would imagine in the current situation would be a very low percentage point of interest on the new debt and around 5% average on old debt.
Instead, use the profits to pay down the debt or use it to pay shareholders.
If I have read it correctly Europa/Asia makes around 1/3 or 750 million 6 monthly before the group costs versus 275 million interest from the group debt 6 monthly.
This is what I do not understand, we could get a 5% to 8% at a guess dividend just by doing nothing from the Asia/Europe profits and just paying the interest, and not even counting profits from the rest of the group.
How to grow a business when you are selling all your assets in all the growing markets with huge growth potential crazy if you ask me unless i am getting the numbers very wrong.