Member Info for karv1

It's early days but part of me hopes shorters hold for awhile and it rises on it own.

Then shorts can panic sell

On another point the 3% rise is still tiny when you compare to 1.8 rise from TW.

We have dropped to about 25% value compared to TW. so we need 7.2% rise just to keep up with other house builders on the rise.

If Vry become net cash of 100mby end of year and get anywhere near 300m in 2027 , this Sp will trebble if not higher in value,

What other stocks have this opportunity.

Shorters have raised there positions . By 0.46%

No wonder this dropped 7% if 3million shares were sold by shorters, out of the 6 million traded on 15th.

Shorters are making money on shorters,

It will be fun watching the dam brake with the 13.68% of stock to be buys with the added good will factor boost this will give.

As others have said we all know housing market and news are cycles it is only a matter of time.

It is a perfect storm of news

Profit warning in southern division

Shorters smell blood

Second profit warning

Fear and shorters

The war

More fear and shorters

The Board panic fire sale on housing in h1 to low debt and then announce they have cancelled the share buy back .

More fear

More shorters and fear to where a never ending vicious circle has been maintained.

Over the next 5 years when this company has made 1 to 1.5 billion in profits we will have made so much money from VTY using current 780m value . I'm happy long term with my entry point just sad I miss timed the bottom.

Greed from me.

I have 0 doubt this will be back on par with the other house builders in the future on value.

War is Miner effect.

Shorters fear shorters are main reason for drop.

It's painfall holding a stock that going down for no reason.

All house builders are in same boat but they are generally valued at 2 or 3.5 billion after the 30% drops.

Yet Vty profits are not that far from Psn or tw but VTY value is between 25% to 30% of Psn/tw. After the drops

I think Vty board need to do something aggressives against the shorters to defend against this attack.

I imagine this would be announced after final results .

Just my opinion but analysis forcast pre tax 210m to 220m for this year and between 210m to 310m for 2027 what else are going to with the money.

On a company valued under 800m

For a low 5% dividend they will require 40m

Forcasted profits for this year at bottom end would cover a 5% dividend and would grow fairly fast that is covered by profits by 2 to 3 times after tax

Top end on profits a 5% dividend would be covered 5 times after tax

Profits for 2027 and 2028 will be higher by this time and interest rates will be falling. .

A Guaranteed dividend that is well covered by profits for new investors .

Remember these companies are cash cows once money is banked.

They can either build net cash ie pay down debts which will raise the SP or pay a dividend will raise the SP.

A takeover just gives all the benefits to another company. This company SP will recover on its own

Just remember all short will eventually need to buy back in .

Shorts sold around 20% of all Vty trades yesterday if I have done my maths correctly.

All housing stock suffered yesterday. The shorts caused Vty to drop more.

Shorts are making money from more shorts

The elastic band effect will brake .

For one simple reason the company is stable and makes money.

If a financial adviser came to me and suggested to short a company that had a value of 830m and is projected to make between 20% to 30% profits against its value after dropping 75% from it highs with 3+ billion in assets and 4.5 billion order book and a endless supply of customers with net debt of 140m and a prediction expectations of being positive 100m cash by end of year.

Guess my response. .

The interim results/ updates might rock the boat due to less profits due to clearing net debts but this is well advertised in advance.

So with current information no matter how I twist the maths I can only see this flying north by huge amounts in 2027 after 2026 final results.

Eventually the existing shorters on shorters elastic band will brake.

What I am having trouble calculating is every point of shorter when they closing there positions what ratio of percentage rise of Sp will it have .

This will also add confidence as well so will it causeing 2 points or 3+ increase per percentage point conversion in Sp rise.

Strong sell at current price is nonsense.

4.5 billion order book

Lowest Sp for like 30 years even including mega market crashes from the pass.

Even with the fire sale to raise cash that will hurt h1 results to get them to that 100m net cash.

Profits for year still expected to be around £168 million to £283 million probably upper end if they hit the 100m+ net cash target. From memory I think they were neg140m.

Even in the worst case this would be 20% of the total value of Vty including the fire sale in h1 which beats all other house builders on profit % compared to value.

On another note the shorters are on borrowed time.

The shorter lemming effect and mass panic will end before end of year.

Currently 500k value of shares traded so far today.

There probably over 100m value of shorters. I can not wait until they start to panic and the lemming effect goes into reverse and the Sp sky rockets upwards.

All you need to do Is sit on your hands and ride the storm until you double your money.

They be net positive 100m+ by December.

In 2027 300m+ if profits do not improve

In 2028 500m+ net cash on 820m value if you invested now.

At which point vty will have more money then tw. Or psn that are both valued 3 to 4 times higher than VTY.

What price will vty be then?

Selling at these prices is complete madness .

People that sell just help the shorters and help create fear out of nothing.

You only make a loss when you sell.

It just a yoyo stock .

Anyone that sells at 400 will be kicking them self's in the future.

Either all other house builders are over valued by 50% or vistry is extremely under valued.

Either many will come down or 1 will go up over time when the debt and cash equalizes across the industry.

Least you can trade my bank still does not show as tradeable

Monday is not looking good at the moment.

THe shock might have worn of over the weekend

If not this could be interesting on Monday.

The way this stock is dropping you would of thought it was on its last legs.

Any company that makes 500m profit and can spend 77m on new stores and expanding and aim to make 250+ million after tax on 1.7b value is doing very well.

Stock up near 4.5% and climbing with like £700k worth of trades the logic of buying at this point seems bonkers to me it may go higher but the odds have to be extreammly hight that you going to lose money today?

Does anyone know where the money has been spent if dividend is covered

Asset sold 75m long term debt paid 60m missing 15m

Shory term debt increased 10m

That wierd time due debt went from 10m to 20m

3m cash

What was this money used for probably a simple answer. But I do not know