Member Info for karv1

I think it to earlier to call the direction yet.

This is going to bounce around some where until the supreme court give there judgement .

Then it will either crash or double in value.

I agree we'll done if you make money.

I do not have confidence in this situation so will have yo watch from the side lines and just be happy for anyone that makes money.

Mary I hope for exsisting shareholders you are correct.

But the FCA said in earlyer review that average commission was between £ 700 to £2000 each, this is not counting any over paid interest from the FCA review.

You times these number by customers which could be anywhere from 500k to 800k. Plus8% interest per year going back 20 years. Worst case but if something like this was to happen if the court does not over turn the judgement. Thing would get very very bad.

There are huge unknown risks this is why the SP has fallen 40% lately and 80% from its highs..

If the analysis are correct the risk is over blown this could be a bargain of the century.

If others are correct this was a gamble before and after court case a huge risk.

These analyst guides are a joke.

If they true believed the 350m cost guide knowing they have over 400m banked with around 1.8billion CET1 total . making 142m PBT per year.

There is no way you would truly only value a company at 700m that is currently valued at 340m .

I guess they had to lower it some so not to look so ridiculous to what the market is showing.

It is early days and things could change quickly, but it starting to look like the market is starting to price in a share right issue other wise people far smarter than me with far more money would be pouring into this stock. but the risk of a right issue is a downward spiral and a double edge sword the weaker the SP becomes the more likely a share right issue and the SP will suffer even more.

This can be cured with FCA/court news

Reason so many people are watching from the side lines is the numbers from the analysis do not add up.

We all want to jump in for this bargain but 700k to 800k of customers might have be repaid all that commission +8 % interest going back 18 years plus anything the FCA adds with over paid interest. The risk could be huge no one knows.

Swing

The difference is CBG is extremely exposed to the motor loans compare to other companies for the size of there business.

I do not think shorters have the power to effect this stock to this degree, the AI,s would be buying on mass to counter them .

Is it more to do with the technicalities of it maybe it is in the contract but the customer is not told, maybe in the contact is enough for the FCA but not enough for the judges.

I wonder if there case where the FCA get sued for any losses.

Because if your following there rules then to be told it illegal and cost you billions i would be seeking it of the FCA

I would say 250m was too optimistic only people that really know the numbers i hope are CBG and they building a war chest of at least 400m+ and selling assets, then they released a statement in so many words saying we have have no idea on what the pay-out could be now.

If they thought 250m was going to be the case then there no way they would be raising 400m+ selling asset self destroying there own company with these statements.

Where did u get the 800k customers from?

And the 40% information? only info on % I have seen was the money site claiming 90% of Cbg had it this was some time ago.

During ppi banks were contacting people.

If your 800k is correct and the money site was correct your400m turns into 1.6 billion.

Only information on numbers I saw was in 2015 report saying 300k of motor customers. With a guesstimate of around 400k plus by 2021.

Just a thought

Is there any risk around the CBG court case going to supreme court regarding any commissions , could this be widened to include mortgages?

As osb I suspect use a lot of agents over the years compared to a standard bank as a unique lender on buy to lets is this a risk or possibility?

Could OSB be the mortgage version of CBG cbg v LLOY IN comparison in motor loans on commission percentage of business.

OSB v the main banks on commission based percentages would effect OSB the most.

Is this just to far fetched and impossible or something to keep an eye on?

It is to early to call but currently future down 0 .40 it not looking great for ex dividend day at moment, really want an up day to help dilute the drop tomorrow.

It will probably drop 4.75% tomorrow depending on the dow jones/ asia then ftse in the morning , this is the gamble.

The dividend tax v amount of shares v capital gains tax depending if it Isa or not.

Do you buy now or sell now or wait for the ex dividend tomorrow that the gamble.

Then you got to decide at 10% dividend will this create a low position that will not break or over time will it randomly drop to near 500 over then next few months ,

Seeing how the US market is over priced and with what is going on in the world .

It is all a gamble best guess with a abit of judgement and luck.

That's a good point so at a guess 100k to 150k .

Unless the banks are told to contact there customers,if everything went south.

With 400k of customers that could be claiming.

Worst case if banks take any/or total blame

400k times the commission plus yearly 8% interest.

400k times a possible 1k interest return plus yearly 8% interest

No matter how you play the numbers I seem to get way higher than the estimates.

Either on of them could smash 150m alone

The stock looks cheap and might bounce back at some point but my concern currently is that the DOW is extremely over priced and if there was a pull back it is more likely than not the FTSE will follow and with a lack of confidence in CBG at moment the effect could be many times worst.

Www.closebrothers.com/system/files/rrp/presentations/close_brothers_group_plc_2015_preliminary_results_presentation_0.pdf

from CBG 2015 final results pre upper dca caps

page 28

300k of customers showing in the 2015 results on motor loans I suspect this could easily be 400k+ by 2021 going by how the loan book grew.

Https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/consultation/cp19-28.pdf

Broker earnings varied significantly across the commission models, particularly for

Increasing DiC, Reducing DiC and Scaled models. Excluding extreme outliers, the

difference between the average and highest commission was around £2,000 for the

DiC and Scaled models, compared to £700 for the flat fee commission model.

and

Next, we used the results of our econometric model to compare the effects of

discretionary commission models on customer interest costs against a baseline of flat

fee models. We estimated that 560,000 customers of the firms in our sample could

pay in total £300m more annually in interest costs.

add a mixture of these 2 together and you get insane numbers when you add the 8% interest per year.