Member Info for karv1

I been looking into GFRD thinking of maybe investing they don,t actually in real money have 197 million in cash in so many words.
Total assets of 656 which 245million in tradeable that they are owed and 197 million in cash and 156 million are intangible assets of which 40 million is ppp
Total liabilities 505 million which the big one is Trade and other payables 458 million.
Total net cash/debt is 120 million but then if you think about it out of the 157million intangible asset it is not real money so you could argue that they have no money or maybe 20 to 30 million depending on ppp investments if I have understood it correctly.

Carillion had 1.5 billion in intangible assets 2 billion in total Total non-current assets it counted for nothing when they made a huge loss and went bust.
I know GFRD is nothing like this but if GFRD makes a loss for a 5th year in a row in real terms they will have to borrow.

Did,t they say the 6p was a compromise between paying shareholders and keeping back funds so I guess depends on how much you look into the words.
I think Amanda wants far less debt and will sell everything and cut back dividends until it has gone.
People like dc brought at 500+ for a 6% return but bad management and events in the world cause the SP to drop 50% now new management come in and I am guessing their line of thoughts is why are we paying 11%+ dividend on SP of 280..
We have all this debt even tho profit covers the dividends easily 2x with 12 billion surplus. they probably slash the dividend and build it up over the next 5 years dragging the SP are slowly while patting themself on the back on what an excellent job they have done, while at the time the older shareholders that have suffered for the last few years can suffer for another 5 years.
It the problem with new people coming in all the time. no responsibility for previous years. The could be 6 and 15p or less or more in time I think we get back to 30p+ tho over many years unless a new CEO by then has a new plan.

3.4% up will it hold seeing more and more red slowly appearing LGEN only 1.1% up, BARC was 2.2% up now only 0.6 up lloy gone red.
DOW futures 180 down tho was 230 down an hour ago so has improved.

you would need deep pockets to buy av.

Let us hope the dow/sp500 markets drag the FTSE up with the banks later today. You never know we could end up being positive by the end of the day.

Yes is a very big risk.
If joe takes Nevada it game over for trump this should stable the markets and send the markets up i hope.
The US DOW future is currently 400 up and this should maintain or go up more dragging the FTSE up as well more often than not banks will go positive my average on BARC was when it was 2% down today.
There is a lot of if, buts, maybe, and crossed fingers.
With good luck, I could be back in AV later
With bad luck i am going to be in BARC for a while.

I have sold gl all a 3 to 4%% swing from AV to barc over the last few days, I still like AV see you all on the next roll of the dice.

In the crazy world we live in the BOE just raised another 150 billion if I have read correctly to a new total of 850 billion of new money which should dilute our currency and the pound should drop but the pound has gone up.
It just shows you how strong of an effect when the top financial people all think it a good idea ie the belief and trust against what should happen where the pound should drop like a rock.

On another thought I do not understand why the FTSE is going down so much TRUMP like him or hate him is more likely to offer us a trade deal as he backs BREXIT which can only strengthen the UK position If JOE wins I think our position will become weaker as he does not seem to be a fan of BREXIT at all.

Looks like trump might pull it off I am guessing the markets did not expect this we gone from near 1% up last night to 1.8% down on futures, I suspect banks with all financials are going to take a pounding it seems the market does not like unknown factors.

Can not turn back the clock , I just hope Amanda blanc knows what she is doing and has a plan with all these assets sales.
With 1 million in shares at least it shows faith in the company and her own self-belief.
We got to give her some time.
I am here for now unless I see a new opportunity to roll the dice again.

Sold last 60k of BARC when it was 4.5% up today. yep kind of gutted on the HSBC SP lost out on around 5% difference between AV and HSBC over the last few days, I am good at holding while it goes down but i always sell to fast when it goes up.
I believe AV will hit over 300 again soon.

The dividends will make or break this stock it what matters to most people.
The uncertainty of what is going to happen with it.
Selling the assets seems so short-sighted to me with my limited understanding.
I do not understand the numbers but for argument sake, if the french unit is worth 2 to 3 billion as some have suggested on an operating profit of 450m let's say around 300 million after everything is taken out, it will be like a 10 % + return for the new owners. against maintaining the debt which I would imagine in the current situation would be a very low percentage point of interest on the new debt and around 5% average on old debt.
Instead, use the profits to pay down the debt or use it to pay shareholders.
If I have read it correctly Europa/Asia makes around 1/3 or 750 million 6 monthly before the group costs versus 275 million interest from the group debt 6 monthly.
This is what I do not understand, we could get a 5% to 8% at a guess dividend just by doing nothing from the Asia/Europe profits and just paying the interest, and not even counting profits from the rest of the group.
How to grow a business when you are selling all your assets in all the growing markets with huge growth potential crazy if you ask me unless i am getting the numbers very wrong.

I think if it gets too 60ish sp I might invest some into GFRD depending on what other funds are doing tho I do not think this will happen it should not happen Greed v risk v reward.
You could argue with that 197 million they could afford a few bad years to try and get things sorted to get that 2% returns

I think with a track record of losing lots of money every year since 2016 between 15 and 80 million per year like on a post I did few pages down, even tho a few of those years they said everything is looking good and then another write-down.
The target profit margins of 2% been put off until 2022, I am guessing their target is 1% for next year, I think I read somewhere that they intend to pay a percentage of the profits out in dividends.
With 197 million cash this must truly feel like a money trap.
A possible 10 to 15 million profit v just 1 project going over budget or being sued or something going wrong and losing 10,s of millions again.
No statement from the board
The board from what others have said are on pay structure from when it was GFRD group which means they could end up owning % points of the company with there share bonus schemes due to the value of the company tho this is here say I have not checked this, all the time while they hoard the 197 million cash.
Is GFRD going to go bust no
Is GFRD ripe for a take over yes will it happen who knows.

You could argue the opposite that there could be a Brexit deal and a vaccine and the french deal happens then the price heads back to 300+

If I have read correctly they have 10.5 billion in debt paying between around 4.5 % average I am guessing 400 to 500 million a year interest between 1 and 20 odd years
I am guessing that the 1.6 billion for the Asia unit and if they sell the french unit for 2 billion will be used to bring the debt down under 7 billion, should help long term, tho I never understand the logic of removing your self from the biggest markets on the planet unless the deal was so amazing.

Brought back in as it gone under 258 let us hope for good fortune.
some sell due to losses while others see an opportunity the world keeps on spinning.

From results. (Based on our results for 2020 and our forecasts for 2021, the Board will consider whether to pay a conservative dividend for
2020. Any such dividend would be dependent on the economic outlook in early 2021, and be subject to regulatory consultation. A
final determination is expected to be made and communicated in February 2021 with our 2020 full-year results. We also expect to
communicate our revised policy for dividends for 2021 and beyond at the same time.)

I have read that the 2020 dividend will not be a token payment. The bit i do not like is the revised policy for dividends for 2021 and beyond.

Hoarding all that money shows a lack of faith in their own company, maybe they can see more write-downs in the future that we do not know about.
Maybe they just playing ultra-safe with the virus situation.
They could pay a 10% dividend for 20 years while making 0 profit