Member Info for karv1

I am hoping for a progressive 9p+ dividend for 2021 we can all hope, I think that will all depend on how much is held back on the 3rd and 4th quarters to cover bad loans and how well the IB dose and the CET1 capital ratio.

I do not think they will hit 50p and I doubt,t even 60p surely the risk v reward v cash flow would balance out, and with the 194 million in the bank versus the company value of 60 million surely this would out weight the dangers by so much that it could not happen until more news comes out. but we do live in strange times.

I should have used blackberry instead of pies to give you more choice

I think they need to show a full year on their own with-profits and no losses.
I am tempted with the 194 million in the bank but 194 million in the bank means nothing to shareholders if you don,t see any of it.
Big risk if they pop out yet another loss next year.
They hope to get 10 million before tax if lucky and if everything goes right and no exceptional claims maybe 8 million after-tax they may pay out 3 million like a 3-4% payout.
Why risk it when banks and insurances are likely to pay out between 5% and 10% next year.
GFRD would actually make more money buying LGEN shares with the 194 million and getting 9.5% returns.
The best outcome is a takeover or merger.
let us hope the board is amazing and they get that 2% returns in 2022 onwards with no claims. then things could be very different.

Let say I sell apples my company is worth 16 pounds I am hoping to double my first Half year profits and make me 10 pounds Tho a virus has caused me to put away between 4 and 8 pounds in case I need to cover for bad apples. Tho I still have 45 pounds in the bank yet the orange seller up the road thinks my company might be only worth 8 pounds soon Or less.
The pie seller down the other road says when things calm down your company could be worth 24 pounds Or more .
I look at my accounts and my bank and have not made a loss with cash in bank and the experts tell me it only. Matter of time before a vaccine rolls out, I think my Apple business has a bright future.

Every crisis you get the shorters trying to help the people that are down and worried and are on the edge and ready to panic sell for huge losses with some negative encouragement.
The golden rule if the company is sound just sit on your hands or risk playing the day trader game you might win you might lose.
I think most sensible people think 50p is just silly and fear-mongering

I have betted heavily on BARC
I believe the fundamentals are sound.
If Barc hits 150 I would be extremely happy if BARC hits 200 I can give up work.
let's say I am 40 at what age do I see 150 and what age do I see 200

55p is just silly talk it would value BARC at 8.5 billion and with pre exceptional profit at near 10 billion and 1.4 billion after-tax if you double the first half-year results.
In normal times we could be looking at 4 billion+ after-tax.
Eventually, things will return to some form of normality.
If the investment bank keeps on improving that profit could be 6 billion after-tax per year.
I reckon STAN has been very wise boosting the investment bank it has done amazing.
lots of money has been moved out of pounds into euros and dollars and at the moment 2/3 of profits come from non-uk if the UK was to crash and the pound burns our USA and euro profits go up which should help to cover any losses if they arise in the UK.
and do not forget about the CET1 45 billion 14.2% ratio.
If the economy got really bad they would have to put up interest rates to keep new money coming into the UK, Then banks make more money.
Banks nearly always make money they are cyclical in nature we just need to ride the waves.

From my limited understanding, any profit or losses is a taxable per transaction from April to April when you sell, minus any fees and stamp duty. plus up to 2k a year tax-free dividends. and depends on your own earnings April 19/20 you got until January to get sorted and be paid if you are doing an online self-assessment sooner if done by paper.
Then there is the bed and breakfast tax which I only found out about a while back or if you are classed as a day trader but don,t think this will count for you.
Also, some brokers do a capital gain form forgot its full name which shows all profits that year which is taxable. this makes everything very easy to work out I have been told.
My 2 pennies worth

On another thought, Mr Jes Staley must under a lot of pressure I think he will be eager to get the dividends going again,
was it something like 9p for 2020 before the virus, maybe just maybe we see 9 or 10p+ for 2021 but I'm guessing that news will be around February.

On a positive side, I am hoping to see 130 by Christmas, we are going to have results from a hand full of vaccine trials by then.
The danger is if there is good news and it rallies for a few days and you sold out at 113.
Trump is hoping to get the vaccine out by November the 1st if it happens it may have little effect or it could rally the global markets by 5 to 10% with more up days to follow.

I have been watching these on and of.
It does seem very tempting when you see so much cash being held but these construction companies seem to just keep losing money on contract after contract.
With profits before exception charges around 1% to 2% and after exceptional charges normally a loss.
Then you got them saying only small amounts to be returned to shareholders.
I guess the fear is that the cash pot will keep going down with little returns.
But then again if the CEO can make it work could be a very good return.
93.5 million value with something like 180 million end of month cash I read somewhere.
But then again they got 300 million from Bovis and had 55 million debt at the time and Bovis took the 100 million debt note of GFRD which left them 345 million cash and they showing 180 million cash now,
So how much will be left in 2 years' time?

I think the AV share price will follow the pack depending on the vaccine news and economy news.
If AV said it was their intention to return to the old dividend rate of around 30p in 2021 I don,t think I would have ever sold AV again.
Only when they have finally decided how badly they are going to cut the dividend will this determine if the AV share price will pull away from the pack or drop back.
During this crisis, I have been looking for a long term investment that will be paying me a good dividend even taking into account that the 2020 dividends would be nothing.
I have in the past posted about the possible returns in dividends and the advantages of AV compared to LGEN tho
at the moment I am mainly in BARC, but even I am now thinking maybe LGEN might be a better call vs AV with the 8.1% dividend.
For 2021 and 2022 I'm am not confident of the AV dividends anymore in the 1 to 2-year time frame tho I am still sitting on the fence.
Probably 6-7 months until the next LGEN dividend with others like BARC if they start their dividends back up and a lot can happen in this time.

All they have to is not go bust and there is like 0.0001 chance of that happening.
5 billion pre impairment in 6 months it is not impossible that BARC could make 50% of the value of the company pre impairment this year at the current Share price.
284 Tnav
14.2 CET1 45 billion
TOTAL ASSETS 1.3 TRILLION
value of company 20 billion
An investment arm that is doing fairly amazing compared to the UK retail arm.
Analysis/ economists will always view a cup half empty.

We rode the ride down the hill we have started the journey up the other side if you are long you would be silly to sell now.
I predict more up days than down days over the next 6 months just my view.

Hi ya bubbles59 you do get the impression that the people running these companies just don,t give a bleep about the shareholders unless you are a big player. I recall A while back when the CEO took questions after questions on the dividends and they were batted away as if they were a nuisance for the CEO/CHAIRMAN.
Then someone asked a question about green waste or pollution from the offices which lead to an exciting in-depth answer which lasted for around 20 mins from the CEO, with most shareholders that had been bleeding money really did,t give a flying monkeys about.
I have got nothing against being green by the way it was just not the right time for it in my view with more urgent items needing addressing .

One word answer Dividend.

There is very good logic to that idea if shareholders' views did,t exist it would make the company run with bigger profits and fewer debts. but that is a long term view say paying out then say 10p 12p 14p 16p ect
v people like dividendchasser and many others that invested at 450 to 500+ for a 6% return when it was covered nearly 2 times.
Suddenly share price crashes in half that dividend is now 10%+ for the board then to say we need to rethink the amount we pay out in so many words 10% is too high even tho it still covered by nearly 2x
version 1 The 10% div is reinstated and might grow over 5 years would have made 50%+ back and maybe share price would have gone up even back to where it use to be.
version 2 The 2 to 3% payout +growth per year and with less debt maybe 20% return over 5 years, the share price has gone up some. in 10 to 30 years healthier company with more profits.
Many shareholders would pick version 1 i think even the big investors would as well to hit there bonus.

What's not to like.
money talks huge amounts held back to cover possible losses and even with this they making huge profits.
Every day that goes pass the odds of a vaccine improve by A fraction out of the 140 odd being tested tho there is no guarantee
With all this in mind, I have to ask myself what is more likely 75 or 135 in the next 6 months.

874 million after tax if I have read correctly. Say 1.7 billion. If x by 2 for a year In a pandemic situation ,profits holding up well , why would you expect 220 to 330 million ie 2 to 3% to be payed out , other insurance companies. With far worst results are keeping there dividends..
At least 50% should be returning to share holders if not more .
It not like they are struggling or that the profits do not cover the pay out that would be different situation completely. My 2 pence worth.