Member Info for joseywales

Does seem like the adhesive business is causing issues and as yet I've not seen any detail as to the reason why. I also think tagging on an update to the AGM of a few sentences does not help the market appraise the company value in any fair kind of way. It's a real bare minimum effort from management and I guess the subtext was 'just let us get on and sort these challenges out'. Nothing there to please those abacus hobbyists.

I think buying at this price point is sound. I think there are some taking advantage of the muted communication (and why wouldn't they really). It's clear that this will take a year to sort out and get back to some healthy margin and cash generation. I'm hoping I'll see more like 180 in 2024.

I'd agree Jamrock. If you were a director it seems like a prime price point to buy in if Boots are rolling and there's a healthy pipeline in the mix. However, if there is any update due, it could just be that they are in a closed period?

I sold at just over £1 but only because of my entry point being so low and getting caught out not selling tHG when I should have. Will be interested watching from the sides since I believe it's just an investment at this stage as opposed to intent to make any kind of takeover bid. Certainly enough to scare remaining shorters and I'm guessing that's what fuelled today.

This may have been covered previously. If boots launch, is there already a similar product in the USA which Wallgreens stock? If not, is there some compliance or certification challenge to get this in US retail?

Also, has someone run that software patch across Amazon which can actually show you the sale numbers of MHC products? I think you need a seller account to do it.

With that increase from Systematica again, I guess they see a path to keeping the SP at this level or lower for a while.

Saw they are shorting WG. and OCDO too at the low level they are at. Maybe they just put heavy bets against recovery on stocks most believe will recover.

I really don't think you can compare MARS to NEX.

MARS is a real recovery play and this whole community pub thing and the type of events they are establishing are interesting. I hope it succeeds but I think it's commercially touch and go for them. I fancy they will at some point need to restructure the debt and that will get messy.

NEX on the other hand has a proven revenue stream and margin stack that may need to recover from some wage inflation but aside from that has little long term risk. Growth might become challenging but that's purely because of management's focus to bring down debt without selling assets.

This board has got a lot busier of late and usually with so much focus on a debt and in some cases I'm not sure posters know pre/post IFRS and what net debt actually looks like.

The director buys have been done just before a closed period so it puts to be the 'somethings bubbling' argument but it does open up the discussion about how July's results will be. My fear was wage inflation would compress margins significantly in H1 (which would bring in divi pressure based on covenants etc, etc). No-one throws good money after bad so I am of the opinion July will be in line or possibly better in the bottom line/cash generation aspect because of increased revenues already mentioned in last update.

I think it's cheap now and not so sure it will get down to the 10/12p level it hit before. There's more money in the 'circular economy' space again so the risk is activist investors get involved or interest from companies to whom it's not in the managements best personal interest to sell to, start circling.

If you take Eco-ATM/Gazelle ... since Dcluttr disrupted their space in the US and penetration into Europe is slow for them, to pay £30m or so for this business would be well within reach for them, particularly as I think they are still Apollo owned.

Kelso seem to get a lot of mentions for a fund manager/investor or whatever you want to call them. They have a relatively tinpot holding in one company and are regaled as some groundbreaking activist investor. Good luck to them but they are a long way from getting a seat at the big boys table. They really don’t seem to be working with any more information than auntie Google can’t give you.

Yes this is nicely oversold now. However I also think this and some other shares are just suffering from general flow of money out of uk equities. Let’s just hope for a good set of results in July to light this one up.

@paddyboy - I got in on that KCT today. Just brutally punished for obvious news and jup selling stake which is more linked to their own funds woes.

See what you mean about the SP. Opted to buy more in the 93s. Hopefully won't drop too much more but happy to hold ... I don't think it will be long until climbing towards 130/140. It's what I consider to be a low ball discount to fair value. I am guessing most on here think 180 would be appropriate....?

It's around the retail entity getting exclusive access to certain products and competitors being blocked out. Incredibly hard to prove and both OEMs and retailers are very careful to avoid such restrictive practices. Plenty of tools in the box to legally ensure any commercial arrangement is in avoidance of anti-competitive practice. Of course, if management has been reckless then that's another issue but that would sit with the OEM/Wholesaler and CURY. Also appeal process of any claim will add to the timescale.

Guessing it's either the moanings of a battle scarred competitor or ex-employee that have lead to this investigation. Going to be a long process and likely puts any acquisition hopes on hold unless some ESCROW type ringfence is possible.

Hopefully we will get update in July about detail of claim and if it has legs.

I don't like intangibles really. Too subjective in their interpretation.

The gross margins are good in this business and it's just about a right-sizing execution to get back on track.

RSI is also sat in low 20s so from a trading perspective it's nicely oversold. Keep seeing GLG still holding short in these low RSI numbers ... wonder what MAN Groups strategy is there.

Having seen this drop recently I looked into this company as it’s one I have not really paid any attention to. Just seems like a well run company which will turn relatively quickly when it right sizes the overstocked side of its business. Nothing scary in the financials so not sure why this has got so badly hammered by market sentiment.

I have bought in on basis it will also be attractive for acquisition looking at margin potential and cash generation which will come in 2024 if management delivers.

The Nordic thing will likely be at the behest of one of their competitors complaining .... they are all having it hard in that region and across DACH. Keeps some EU bureaucrats in jobs for 6 months and the shorts have something their press/info machines can work with.

It's got heavily sold into and it's just a matter of patience for the July results etc.

Darkblue ... I reckon it will be as low as their own risk permits. I think they just set parameters for the algo to work with. However, after an extended period where they are simply selling more than buying, the algo has to re-shift and take action. So that 0.1 addition by Systematica to hit inflation data day could well have been a last hoorah in terms of their activity to drive down and then start clearing.

They could also be sector hedged but from what I have tried to find out about them, they are far more about algo/quant activity type stuff.

There's no requirement in the cashflow based on last info...cash conversion is strong.

There's no commercial requirement unless linked to an immediately accretive acquisition. Management were clear on low capital business development so any opportunistic acquisition they make would have to have an immediate positive impact. (Incredibly unlikely that opportunity exists).

So pretty naive claim really without any substantive data to back it up.

Whilst the SP is not good news, the RSI is. Was 36 when I checked yesterday and it can only be heading lower currently. I think the more it is driven down the better as the bounce will be more significant and extended when it finally comes.

I'm sure this gets hit a bit more that other stocks at the moment due to the significant % of revenue in the US ... so not only currency exposures being factored in but also the debt ceiling game played out in the political arena over there.

QD, sub £1 is a big call. I'd be shocked if we got there. I think there are other 'trading' opportunities out there for sure but I'm not so sure how many have the long term prospect of NEX. I have a few I am investing in which could have similar levels of return but I also think they carry more risk with them.

The big thing for me will be margin compression due to increased costs. There was plenty of talk about increased revenues in the update but actually nothing about profit and cash generation. That will obviously come in July and my guess is that the wider market is waiting to see if they are delivering something close to the robust business performance we are all hoping for.

Not so sure there's been a rally as such. However, I do think this will track back up fairly quickly on positive inflation data and maybe a stall on rate rises. Need to see what June brings.

I also think things will change in the Nordics. It's an incredibly conservative consumer environment and the spending will come back into tech with a change in rate environment / economic outlook etc.

I've only just read that article. I've spoken to my journalist pal about mis-reporting and just taking what's fed to you on numerous occasions and bottom line is there is no recourse back to the journalist. In this instance I guess they are just spinning facts until July.

I also did look into Systematica when they were first shorting NEX. I actually think they just piggy back on other short algo's as opposed to anything particularly innovative. Can't imagine they are giving the sort of returns to investors which other hedge funds are able to produce. They shorted Wood Group after they'd already dropped to that 140 mark ... that's just not a move that's going to make a lot of money.