Member Info for joseywales

Amazing really ... HTWS and SYNT up 10% with debt profile and here's MCG dredging the bottom at 3%. Anything with debt should have done well today. Considering MCG is being banded about as 'risky', they should have mirrored HTWS.

I'm really expecting a low ball bid to come in for the business. Someone has to be selling into the buys to keep this down and tire shareholders?

I just bought some of these at 0.47 mark. The company was mentioned to me recently off topic while we were discuss MS BI applications. Taking a quick look at what they do and understanding the value in the platform they have produced, it seems like a company that just lost direction a little bit. Should not take too much to get it back on track and build recurring revenue. High risk but the upside potential seems worth it.

Frankly I have so little faith in this holding any decent gains in a day that if it were to hit 110 today, I'd just sell 25% or so to buy back in again. Any momentum just gets sold into and someone must be chucking in a lot of money to make that work effectively.

Yes, I hold this and Virgin Wines and quite happy with both. I think the only risk here is a non-cash writedown which impacts any stock based financing they have in place.

Funny how it's so static today when others have jumped on the inflation news.

The partnership with Boots has to pay off. It's as simple as that. Hopefully we get some news this week but let's see.

Just want to check my sanity here as it does not seem like the update is that bad ... in fact re-assuring really considering the demand backdrop in the chemicals industry right now.

£200m+ off net debt representative of the disposal ... actually looks like a little bit more has come off than just the funds from the business sale, compared to net debt at end 2022

EBITDA crushed to single digit % ... demand driven and quality in adhesives costing margin

YoY revenue drop is big but already seen that coming with H2 22 results.

Talking about a market cap which is barely 2 times the likely EBITDA this year!

I read somewhere that 8.1 was the expected read.

Was in Waitrose today and the difference between Hellmanns and their own brand was ridiculous. Never really noticed it before and it can't have been that big. I think the 'brands' are holding up this food inflation figure which is being obsessed about. The supermarkets are being dragged over the coals when their own brand stuff is very reasonably priced. Boycott the brands!

It's the disparity with the Eurozone that annoys me ... we truly are the village idiots of our continent right now.

Wednesday will be pain everywhere like just about every inflation data day for the last 12 months!

When it comes to MCG, the last broker update I saw was 26th May from Jefferies at 190. Before that was Liberum at 115 who later went from 'sell' to 'hold' back in March.

I'm less convinced this is going to ramp considerably in SP post results. The wider problem is the mass outflow of funds which increasing the interest rates will continue to exacerbate. Be happy with a divi if it's forthcoming.

Need one of those nice benevolent US equity houses to make an offer on this business!

Agreed Jamrock ... if the products are not selling when in Boots, then its a case of take the hit, sell out and move on. The idea of the product is great and it all depends how consumers take to the concept. Assumptions are being reached because there's no update. However Thursday is the 20th so hopefully they will drop news then.

Massive quick win culture in UK market at the moment so movement of only 150K shares of which most are sales is not worth thinking about. White Noise!

I think someone already described it as a lifestyle business and I think that's spot on. The only way this scales rapidly and profitably is into the B2B space ... whilst they lose the VAT margin aspect of supply the purchase price point is significantly lower.

On a debt free basis this business might be worth £33-38m right now and there's clearly a need to shut decluttr or sell it off if possible. The line seems to be 'we're going to do the same thing but better' ... that's stale frankly.

I'll hold what I have for around 20p then out. Needs fresh, hungry blood in the organisation that's driven by profit and cash generation before this turns into a money pit.

I think the disclosures can be a distraction. When I look at some of my holdings, the action is happening below the threshold line anyway. It could even be existing holders just averaging down or playing the ebbs and flows of industry sectors. I also think it gets accentuated by 'retail' shorters following the notifications. I actually think it will burn those guys far more than actual investors/holders.

When it comes to MCG ... I imagine we will have a rocky start to next week as we all hope we follow the US inflation trend but fear (and expect) different!

That horse has bolted. With both revenue and profit down, best just concentrate on some delivery in the business. When the wider industry around you is generating profits in the secondary asset game, management needed to be answering some tough questions on that call.

I bought a small amount yesterday just to see how this plays out ... having done that I think I should have waited for lower entry.

I disagree about rental being a bad model. It actually takes a little away from the full 'price tag' psychology and where an assets residual can be predicted, I think there are other secondary assets this would work well with. In fact an interesting avenue for managing buyers remorse returns.

However, hinging success on rental and buy now pay later is weak.

I also agree there should be increased demand for refurb but supply of that premium end product will tighten if people simply hold onto their phone for longer in these tougher times. There's no significant technology or platform shift to entice consumers.

If you look at the ITAD space right now - supply is the issue as refreshes have slowed. Same will likely apply to mobile and that's troublesome news for the summer months.

Bought back in here.

The research report is what you'd expect as a counter argument to any kind of successful recovery. 'Going concern' arguments they mention are incredibly thin. Maybe stock write-off is the 'discussion' being had at worst. If they have not sold the overstock through as anticipated, there's likely pressure coming from auditors. Non-cash in reality.

Revenue is down but also there has been 'right-sizing' in the business and 300m with substantially cut back marketing budget makes it a pretty sustainable business with an opportunity to be more bottom line focussed.

Last time I sold somewhere in the mid 110's. No reason why this does not happen again within 6 months or so.

An analyst clearly authoring works not worthy to even be placed an arms length away from a toilet seat.

WG. is proof that selling assets to clear down debt does sweet FA. Dividend and share buybacks are the only method to elevate this SP. It would also put it higher up the institutional food chain when the cash comes flowing back into UK equities.

You're not wrong Darkblue. That's an interesting post. Having dinner with a group of city peeps later so will throw it out there.

Good luck Ghengis but I simply have managed funds for the US market. Tried and lost on that stage many years back.

There's definitely appetite for that US business. This was my absolute pie in the sky conspiracy theory based on binge watching too much utter sh**e on streaming services!......

If you look at the last 6 months or so, if you had about a £5-10m float, you could run this SP most the time. So driving it downwards to a level where potentially cash strapped institutions are frustrated with continuing net outflows is not beyond comprehension. A low bid needs their support. You're trimming potentially 100's of millions off the sale price so throwing 10 of millions at such a project seems worthwhile. Potential suitor just needs to find a broker/hedge fund with a good algo.

So once it's low enough, put the bid in for the whole business for what you are prepared to pay for the US and sell off other bits down the road. That bid would need to be in before July results I'd have thought.

Clearly if they pull the interim dividend then that will impact things. From memory they committed to paying something like one third of the final divi (but you'd have to go back and check). Going back on that won't bode well. At the end of the day that's what killed Currys yesterday.

MCG have announced the results presentation without any profit warning or the like. So you have to think things are on target business wise.

The only one of my stocks not in the red today. Problem is on a green day it's not green either. This needs a defibrillator not a test kit! A company of this size should not take long to close out to June 30. Maybe an update next week do we think?