Synthomer Share Chat (SYNT)

Raydio

There seem to be numerous areas of interesting future developments that Synthomer has a stake in - and where they appear to be regarded as a "player" e.g. battery binders - see here:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-battery-binders-market-size-093000461.html

Short term the share price is very volatile, clearly. Long term we probably won't have any numeric indicators until next year. But on the basis of publice information, the new board's positive public statements appear to have substance.

I looked up the article and found it interesting. Nice to see Synthomer still referred to as a global leader in its field. Noting the recent share price movements and market generally it looks like we have a bottom around 170. Having bought Synthomer for the first time recently and traded that buy profitably (see previous post) I am optimistic my second buy at 180 recently will also be profitable soon. I am currently just looking at trading this share as volatility makes this attractive. Longer term I will get a core holding for the longer term as I see a strong rebound further out and have secondary holdings for trading which is my norm.

And as a (semi) connected follow up ...

The University of Leeds has a multidisciplinary approach to AI, with its Digital Manufacturing Group applying technologies to industrial challenges, and links to companies such as AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Syngenta, IBM, Infineum and Synthomer.

Thank you LOT-13 I am looking for a low price as I am looking to just hold this stock long term

Hi Saxman303,

Hmm difficult question depends in part on market sentiment.

Last Thrusday lowest traded price was £1.73 today the lowest traded price was £1.72 & that was the bots in action.

It took them a long time to fill my 5,500 order today.

So you really need to have your limit orders in place, you might have been able to some stock today around the £1.73 mark, but how much I don't know.

Personally I think its going to bounce from here, just by the way it traded most of the afternoon, maybe it will get to £1.70 next time round, but the trouble is by wanting such a low price you're missing out on the bounces that are occurring.

I could have set my buy order to £1.74 or there about's but I set it just above £1.75 to try & ensure it got filled, so I can sell it again on the next rise.

Something for you to think about.

Good Luck

LOTM

Does anyone see 1.70 coming I do

Sorry I couldn't post £'s last night my PC had issues & had to be reset.

As you can see my 5,500 share order has been filled at £1.74924 so lets see what the afternoon has in store or whether I set my limit price to high up (but you can't trade if you don't have any stock to trade with! )

GLA

LOTM

Well sadly made 2 mistakes today .......

There was a big opening spread from the MM's & no follow through buying from late friday - which I was expecting to see.

So when the price tightened right up around 10:30 to less than 0.5p difference on dummy trades I decide to buy back the 5,000 shares I sold late friday for a loss at 1.86267

When someone bought 18,180 shares not long afterwards at well over the offer price 1.8747 I initially thought I'd done the right thing, but the slap down selling straight afterwards meant it wasn't ! (1st mistake cost 193 pounds)

Having realised the mistake I tried to sell the whole 10,000 shares I had (including the core ones! yes I know I'm not meant to do that! ) but was greedy & didn't want to take just 1.845 for them only a few minutes later having to accept 1.8352 before I missed the selling chance completely ! (mistake number 2 - which cost me another 100 pounds)

I then had to wait a very long time for the price to drift lower, twice it got within a whisker of filling my limit order but didn't do so. I thought I'd missed the boat over a tiny margin but finally I was rewarded with 5,000 shares at 1.788 (limit order had been set at 179.31).

So that got me back 181 pounds which virtually covers the original 193 pound error !

Depending on what price I buy-back the trading parcel (look out for a trade size of 5,500) I should in actual fact end up with a profit on all of this even after 2 mistakes!

LOTM

As I said in a post to Wigwammer, I wouldn't in anyway say I'm good at trading, because I'm not.

I made 2 mistakes last week, the 1st was buying the "Core" holding of 4,000 shares at just under £1.80 when I should have got them 5p cheap. So I missed out on a £200 saving then.

Second was not buying that other "Trading" parcel of 4,000 shares at £1.737 plus costs - which I would have sold most (if not all) of it late on friday afternoon at £1.8562, so I missed out on £450 there as well.

Those are expensive mistakes yes £650 is only 2% of the money lost previously (over £31K), but it would have meant an extra 350 shares after costs at £1.80. Which would have increased the shareholding by 7.6% - ouch & brought down the break-even point considerably as well.

So if I had done nothing the family would still have 550. If I'd taken up the full rights at the time it would have cost £6600 for the 3300 shares giving us a total of 3850 shares and a break even point of £9.75 per share.

By using the £6,600 at just under £1.80 that bought me 3,665 shares instead (+365 shares) plus re-investing the £339 profit on the 1st trade covered another 185 shares & friday's banked profit got me near enough another 200 shares.

So we've now got a Core holding of 4,600 shares in total (plus a trading parcel of 955 shares) which means our break-even price has dropped to £8.1522

My 1st trading target is to get to 7,700 shares ( double the number of shares we'd have after taking up the rights issue) which would lower our break-even point to £4.87 a share.

Whether I achieve it or not is another matter !

LOTM

With nothing better to do I asked ChatGPT to criitique the latest Synthomer Trading statement. It said :

In summary, the statement effectively communicates Synthomer's current position, strategic moves, and outlook. Further detailing specific metrics, market insights, risk management, and customer demand factors could contribute to a more comprehensive understanding for stakeholders.

Hi lotm

I wish I could edit my mistakes. I sold at 180. I bit premature on Friday price. Luckily I switched my attention to PFC. Bought 33p first thing, then sold in the afternoon at 36p and promptly bought 888 at 80p. If I get my timing wright I will be back into SYNT next week.

Regards

I've been thinking about doubling down on this stock since the rights issue but haven't done it... yet.

I had a look at how Synthomer's bonds trade today.

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs2194288390-synthomer-plc-3-875-20-25

The bonds have recovered to the same value as June '22, suggesting that the company isn't going to go bust. This also means the effective interest rate payable is less on new financing. That's quite a strong argument for the equity isn't it? The bond market is normally the smart guys, not dumb retail like me.

Also - can anyone link me to a some clear figures for what the company's balance sheet will look like after the rights issue and after the disposal of business units that is ongoing?

Decided to do a sort of halfway house strategy at the end of the day.

I sold 5,000 shares of the 6,000 share block I bought @ £1.7833 (including all costs), for £1.8562 per share for a net profit on those 5,000 shares of £358.

Will decide on the next course of action over the weekend .......

LOTM

Hi Walkietalkie,

Sorry my previous post was meant to say £1.737 not £1.837 I hate not being able to edit mistakes on this site.

"I was very tempted this morning to buy another 4,000 shares to trade at £1.737 but in the end decided that it was best to leave it - as this share has consumed enough money already & my trading parcel is already bigger than the core holding."

----------------------------------

It also hasn't traded as I imagined it would this morning, although it looks primed to pop right now (as if the MM's were trying to sucker in some cheap sellers this morning)

So we'll find out later if you or I were right about what's going to happen for the rest of the day.

Good Luck

LOTM

Hi Wigwammer,

Thanks for the clarification.

I'm not in any way saying I've a magic touch or any such thing, I would say on the whole I'm not very good at it (trading), but still trying to learn from past mistakes as I go.

The family have followed your view for generations now of buying & holding & to be honest it hasn't worked out that well. I feel in recent years things have change too much & are changing ever more rapidly.

Everything is far more exaggerated these days - holding a share ahead of a trading update or half/full year results now is fraught with risk. Your actually better selling in advance & buying back afterwards yes the occasional one will jump up in price, but a large percentage drop considerably in price 7.5%+ is very common now.

----------

Hi joseywales,

Sorry I can't answer your questions as I have no idea what a tear sheet is or a RSI

----------------

Hi Walkietalkie,

I'm not sure if your trade showed up on LSE list or went through another platform so I have no idea what price you sold at ?

I was very tempted this morning to buy another 4,000 shares to trade at £1.837 but in the end decided that it was best to leave it - as this share has consumed enough money already & my trading parcel is already bigger than the core holding.

Very strange days trading looked like it was going to go up 1st thing in the morning, then it was under a lot of pressure then late afternoon some significant buys went through 14,318 10K & 50K which made me decide to hold it all overnight. The closing auction at £1.841 was a big surprise to see it so far over the offer price.

I was intending selling the trading lot in the mid £1.8's but will re-asses that in the morning as this might have legs (for now).

LOTM

With respect LOTM, in 30 years of private and professional investing I have never seen any trading approach that consistently earns positive returns over short periods. This includes years of quant based research, developing algorithms to backtest the alpha generated by just about every price/volume based approach imaginable. Running the strategies across decades of data and multiple markets. There simply isn’t a short term strategy out there that consistently gets a decent result. So when I hear about private investors believing they have the magic touch - I take it with a big pinch of salt. The “slam dunk buy” trade at 300p was made by another poster here who claimed to be a trading maestro, but who conveniently forgets what he has posted when it suits his self aggrandising narrative. The reason I emphasise the medium/long term is because that is where the proven sources of alpha are generated. But it requires patience.. ATB

Well I find it hard to believe, but the tear sheet I was just looking at showed an RSI of 3.24 which I have never seen before. Does anyone have access to data showing a different RSI number?

Hi lotm

Managed to sell some last seconds of trading.. The only dilemma i have is when and at what price to buy back. Friday afternoon can be a good time to buy.

Hi Wigwammer,

I'm not sure how to respond to your post as its sadly rather confusing to me .......

Not sure where this ' “slam dunk buy” trade at 300p' fits into the equation ?

I've already stated there are risks to trading this & the price racing away from you is one of them, but if you've got your "core" holding you won't have missed the boat, its only your trading parcel that you won't be re-stocking & you'd have to adjust your trading range for it. It's also part of why I said it was important to do the trading quickly & at as low a price as possible to start with to get maximum benefit.

Then in the last bit your advocating basically to just Hold the stock & do nothing, that's all very well if you got into the stock at under £5 ( £0.25 pre consolidation) or have bought in recently where you have little baggage to carry forward. Very few will be in that position the vast majority here will have significant losses. For them, they'll be lucky if £4 per new share is there break even point.

LOTM

Hmm. Obviously if the trade goes in your direction then it will help reduce losses. But the opposite is also true. So a “slam dunk buy” trade at 300p has an extremely damaging effect on your average price when the shares drop to 180p. That’s just a fact. Based on what I’ve read here in recent months, the overall performance of reported trades has been poor… Better to think medium-long term and stick with your guns - SYNT looks great risk/reward at this level… IMO

Hi Walkietalkie,

I'd never heard of this "tail swallowing" until this SYNT rights issue ..........

You seem to be doing pretty well with your trading so far & I'm sure its reducing your break-even price dramatically.

One of the things I forgot to mention in my last post (& this is really important for people to pick up on) about trading was in regards to my banked profit of £339 which is around 1% of the family losses.

That 1% profit (£339) was able to get me roughly 185 shares at just under £1.80 + costs which was in fact a 4.389% increase in my shareholding (from 4215 to 4400 shares).

That in turn lowered my break even price from £8.97 per share to £8.52. Which is actually a drop of 5.016%

So anyone making just a small profit at the moment & re-investing it, is making a substantially bigger difference in the price that they need to break-even later on.

LOTM

Hi lotm

I like your thinking and your precise maths. It’s ditto on adding and building a stake. I’ve bought and sold a few times from the RI shares having sold my original holding, its called tail swallowing. I’m now buying at 170p ish and selling at 180p ish. It. Seems to be working so far. I think the shares should rise from here on. And shall alter my buying and selling price.

Happy hunting.

I think people need to take what is stated on these boards with a big pinch of salt anyway. For example there is one poster who stated Synthomer was a “slam dunk buy” at around 300p, in other words - worthy of a big one way punt upwards - who now claims it’s all a bit of fun now the shares have halved. It’s just a load of nonsense….. My own view is Synthomer is a £2.2bn+ revenue company with decent market positions, a history of earning attractive op margins, a credible medium term goal of doubling EBITDA to £300m+ - and if such an event becomes reality we could see the shares back at £8+ on a 3-5 year view. That’s a return worth waiting for IMO… ATB

As I said if I do nothing the break-even price for us is now £60 a share.

If I took up the family rights (in full) it would have cost around £6,600 to do so. It would have given us @ 3850 shares in total (3300 new & 550 old) & lowered the break-even price from £60 a share to £9.75

By not taking up any of the rights & buying the shares at just under £1.80 that 10% difference in the buy price would have given us an addition 365 shares meaning the break-even point for the 4215 shares drops to £8.97 instead. Which is a substantive difference in itself.

(saxman303 is looking for that buy-in price drop to be lower at around £1.70 which would mean an initial 15% saving & thus more shares to reduce their break-even point).

For me even £8.97 is a very long way away from here, provided of course I want to risk another £6,600 in SYNTHOMER.

So my choice is to either trade & re-invest the profits into more shares which will lower the break-even price even more, or simply to bank the trading profits & thus the amount of cash at risk in SYNTHOMER.

If I were to go with the lower risk option then the 10% drop in price means I would only need to put £6000 at risk now instead of the £6600, but by doing so you barely affect the overall break-even price. And if your going with that strategy you really need a separate trading bundle of either 3,300 shares or 3,850 otherwise you'll have to completely sell out each time to bank the profits & if the price were to shoot up, your completely out of position.

So I'm going to take the higher risk option & re-invest any profits as I go & hope that SYNTHOMER recovers in time & thus I can get at out somewhere close to break even or even better!

My trade on Friday resulted in a profit of £339, so that gives me £6939 which I've effectively now invested in 3,850 new shares giving us 4,400 shares in total & lowering the break-even point to £8.52 per share. In addition I have another 6,150 shares to trade with.

By sheer co-incidence those extra 550 shares just happen's to match the mere 550 shares we're left with following the share consolidation & there stark value (or lack of it) comes into plain sight £939 (actually its lower than that now) frightening & not lost on me how much of an uphill battle this is going to be.

Yes I am taking risks, but without them there is no way I'm going to be able to recover a reasonable amount of the original investment. Because you need to take the market cap of the company into consideration as well & how likely it is for the company to ever get to that sort of overall valuation.

GLA

LOTM

Hi MikeS02,

Certainly not trying to be disrespectful to anyone.

I'm fully aware that there will be people on or watching the BB that have lost even more money than I have & will be hurting/suffering badly from those losses.

I was hoping it might give them some hope & me for that matter - to the possibility of recovering some of those losses over time.

Yes I avoided taking up any of the rights issue, simply because it made no sense to me to do so. The family holding was acquired at £3 a share pre-consolidation in other words £60 a share now.

There will sadly be others in at a higher price even than that & others at much lower levels who still have significant losses to.

But there is virtually no chance of the share price going anywhere near £60 in the next 10 years for sure.

So the only real options are to either totally write off the investment or to try to trade the stock ( & show others it can be done to & that they may be far better at it than I) & bring the average purchase price of the holding down as much as possible thus lowering the break even price for the family.

If your going to trade it then you need to get in at as low a price as possible because that affects your average price the most.

The money I made last week was around 1% of those losses, nothing to write home about, but its a start & something to try & build on.

GLA

LOTM