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I am trying to understand what was the main reason behind the latest drop from around 190 towards 120s in Jan. I am not an expert in these type of things but my humble theory is that the exclusion from some indeces and also new year reshuffle in at some large funds created a sell pressure of around 5 million shares. Since post RI, i.e. saturated buyers, and relatively low daily liquidity , and determined sellers created a big pressure on the price. These big funds do not care about price when they exit, so then 120 comes as a price.
Good evening all, with all due respect - synthomer has shown monthly macd breakout only 4 times in last 24 years. 2000, 2009, 2020 and 2024. Except 2024, every other time it show a 12/18 months rally with massive 3-10 times gain. Please buy hand over fist, this is the fourth time happening in last 24 years, extremely rare, please grab the opportunity to catch a potential ten bagger. Good luck folks.
Hi JW
It was quite a brutal RI. It seems an age I have been chasing these shares down. Buying and selling percentages of my holding, taking my stake out keeping the excess shares averaging down. Have now averaged down to 155. I have a monumental £127.56 Profit. I keep this up probably until the 12 march. We are in a perfect storm. Will be volatile until then. My goal to is to wait till the next decent pay day. I think the targets are to high quoted on this board are too high . £2.00 is achievable. When it gets there I will revaluate.
I will post about VOD, PAY, FCH shortly.
Strong finish today.. didn’t expect the pump last 30mins after poor PPI data from the US which caused it to go lower midday. We’re now well positioned into next week, just slightly above my key moving average which currently sits at 154p.
I’m pretty optimistic here. Hope we’ll print higher high on Monday around 160p 🤞
Further to my message . Volatility based upper Bollinger band was at 157 yesterday, and is rising at 1.0 daily, so assuming top band 158 today , gives a time target of 10 days for sp target of 168.7. Both Lower and upper bollinger band are moving upward implying relatively slow movement , however that may change, along with the timescale, if volatility increases usually represented, in the lower band dropping, while upper band rises, for the major trend up.
Symmetry of sp, movement requires a sp target of 168.7. The impulse to head towards the price target , was made today. When price broke above the 3 price pivots printed on the daily chart since 2/2/24. There is however overhead supply from previous trading volume at the area of the target price of 168.7, so expect resistance, or a retracement at that level.
The sector chart, is in an upward bullish , providing impetus to SYNT, as one of its constituents.
Do note that SYNT, does show secular downtrends on most charts, 5 year, 2 year, 1 year , 3 month, so a stop loss, perhaps based on a multiple of the average true range indicator, might be useful.
As we’ve just hit 156, now we need to see 160 for higher high to be printed. Once we get there, it’s a walk in the park
Could get to 30p today. I will post at the weekend
Hi WT,
Topped up Pfc at low 27. Will now sell some at 30 and hold balance for 34/35. Will buy Dark at 335. Bought more FCH @ high 26 so all in on that one now.
The penny profit trades just don’t pan out for me as the ones you have to bail out on are bigger losses.
Also some I build for future divi value in ISA. It’s how I see both MCG and this eventually and aside from capital growth you could easily see 10% plus divi on your original investment value. Still mulling VOD for this but seems commentary very split….bought BT for this as I think market is very confused over where it’s future revenue streams come from and hefty debt structure dragging on whole sector.
WT, not sure who cares about your valentines dinner and why you’re bringing it up.. but good for you ( I totally don’t care)
Hi GMHK
Talking of moving average. I had valentines dinner bought for me last night as it is leap year. If the SP drops to 145p I shall buy. I’m so close.
Hi JW
Where are you with DARK, PFC. I managed to buy some PFC at 27 and sold at 28. I may buy some DARK later.
Lol.. it’s a moving average level that matters to me more rather than anyone’s break even price
Hi gmhk
I glad you choose 155p, that’s my break even.
Plan for today would be to get the price well over 155 (might be too much to ask for in 1 day) which is **moving average** level that hasn’t been broken for ages. It would mark a significant progress in price recovery process
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity lowered their target price on chemicals business Synthomer from 350.0p to 300.0p on Wednesday as it effectively pushed out its expectations for the group's recovery by 12 months.
Canaccord Genuity said the September 2023 recapitalisation of Synthomer had left the group "well-placed to survive the current extended downturn". However, the outlook for the current year was still for limited progress.
"We are moving numbers to the right, effectively pushing the recovery out by a year; we now expect nearly all of the improvement in 2024E to be self-help, with better figures coming next year," said Canaccord Genuity. "The impact on our valuation is more modest, given that we now look well set for a sustained recovery in the chemicals industry, and we are effectively pushing out our valuation by one year".
The Canadian bank noted that Given Synthomer's equity gearing - at the current share price, the equity value sits at around 28% of the enterprise value - even a "quite modest" improvement in outlook or the successful execution of an asset sale could have "a very material impact" on the share price
No WINE is done now. I think 70p has taken it a bit too high/optimistic. It’s a nice little trading stock more than long term viability. Wines a tough game.
Good movement on Synt today…really hope it keeps the gain and slowly chases down that 197 for starters!
This is brilliant! Optimism is being pumped into the sector as we speak! Ignition on 🚀🚀🚀
If SYNT finishes today close to 150, it will be very good sign!
JW.. with regards to WINE.. never came across this company. It seems slightly overbought to me and it might hit some resistance at this level but definitely, this is what we’re waiting for SYNT to print
Little drama related to US inflation but not a big deal in the U.K. Should recover this week
patience is the key to 400
I’m less inclined to lock in any range. Still simply holding what I have now. Once the covenant issue is sorted I think this will do what WINE just did and climb over several weeks with little option to ‘get back in’ at a discount.
I’m actually using your trading range. If it get near 150, I shall sell. If it get near 132 I shall buy. There is also thing called compound interest, which means if you trade on 3% margins say 100 times, well I will let someone else to do the maths. Perhaps LOTM
Happy hunting
Good for you WT. Scalping isn’t my thing.. can’t be bothered to chase 2-3% at a time. Tried that in the past and concluded that scalping on small positions would never match swings on large amounts.. but yeah well done if you’re happy
Hi LOTM GMHK
For what it’s worth!
Sold SYNT at 148
Bought WIZZ at 2020
Sold WIZZ at 2087
Bought SYNT at 140. Averaged down to 155p
Business as usual
GMHK,
Personally it looks like the new trading range is 132 - 149 I'm sure we'll see if that's right or wrong shortly.
LOTM
Now, I want to see what tomorrow brings with US inflation print expected to be bad. Doesn’t really need to have any negative impact on SYNT and AIM in general though (probably FTSE100 will get a slap), as the chart is looking very optimistic. I don’t even think that 160 will have any resistance so off we go to RI price 🚀 algo trading is a beauty.