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Saying it's small is la la land. You have to measure the short by the free float that's not sat with ii's. With Cosmens eating into what MS released to a large degree, the balance sat in retail and the like is actually very small. So 2% short here is a big deal and they have enough shares to put through the algos to eclipse the usual daily trading this runs at. It's why it's such a big problem when there's no divi, no buyback and ultimately nothing in sight near term to push this back over £1.
The director buy means zip at that level ... in fact since he's counsel it means there's no chatter Cosmen wise within the company yet.
Personally I think the climb will slow now we are getting over year highs. They’ll simply start finding more sellers. If the US exit delivers some £m, then I imagine that will be the catalyst for £1.
The bit I don’t get is why on earth would shorts increase into a major holder increasing. The only reason you’d do that is if you know for fact they will stop and have no intention of a takeover?
I would not say I'm cheerleading this one. I've offered reasonably balanced opinion in my posts but yes, for me its a buy. Biggest risk is de-listing but I can't see where the 75% would come from. For you its .... well nothing because you are not invested and you're not short. Hmmm. You only post on MMAG so do you actually invest al all?
You're right, no-one officially gets fired from any business any more. We use settlement agreements.
I think that is the case for an MBO scenario ... not sure outside of that. However, that's the 120 mark now which would seem about right for a lowball number. I imagine they'd need a solution around the debt structure as the smart play would be to leave it in the business and just buy the shares. Hell of a thing to work out.
Another point to note ... they'll only need to make an offer that appeases under 50% of the holders now and that only gets smaller with every 1% they add up to 30. Maybe May/June is the endgame for this.
Might make a difference when algos catch up ... always a bit of a lag in daytime releases.
20% for European Express. Then there's 3% at Northern Express and 3% at Azvalor (if Azvalor is holding for Cosmens).
So they also have control of share through that Spanish entity as well. Do they need to be added to the equation under the 30% rule or can they be treated separately?
Why don't you sell up then? Clearly not for your appetite to hang around here?
Nothing you say is factually incorrect ... although reference to 'the team' might make one think you got fired from the company.
They know how ALSA performs as they have executive in there. They may not have so much exposure to the details of the other territories.
Also, the increase could well have been about ensuring they have an ability not to have the company taken from under them. Very hard for 75% support without them!
As a shareholder they are not there to behave in other shareholders' interests. If they don't like a bid, they can vote against it, simple as that. That alone could detract certain funds from investing.
JG, you are right, you cannot use the platform average. It's as ianfm says, but you can really over complicate it.
I'm looking at overall portfolio value not by ticker. Switching £12K across to FCH and adding to that holding just made more sense to me for the minute.
Now if I had a lot of cash in my portfolios I would not have sold since 54 must be close to bottom. I just think the short profile is going to keep it within a tight low range until the half years. Purely my opinion, but sticking this out since March 2023 was a mistake for me.
I'd also say that doing it this way means you never really get out at the top unless you view it as a dividend income hold.
Let's face it this is not about to have a big bounce anytime soon. I sold what I bought at 54p before close of play. There's simply others out there I expect to turn sooner and maybe I end up buying back in here in the 60s or in the low 50s. I still have plenty of holding that if by any event this took off, I'll still be smiling.
Paddyboy is right, only a Cosmen scenario changes things imminently and they can be the only buyer since they can block any other bidder. If they are after it, I'm sure they will have already floated a 120/130 type deal into current iis and got rebuffed. There is risk here ... you have one cash cow keeping the company afloat and if ALSA faces any challenges in the next 6 months, it quickly becomes a house of cards. Similarly if USA recovery stalls or becomes non-apparent.
Also, once the trading volume calms down, you will have the short algos running this for a while.
Put them through in smaller batches and you get top end of range. Earlier I got 60.4 when range was 59.8-60.4. 21K was something like high 61.
Calmed down now. Hopefully it will hold at the 60p level prior to another jump on actual news. Hopefully that's come before the AGM.
Yes, but catchups don't go at this pace.
A group bid makes sense for the larger PE houses and the like. The wider geographical exposure might be preferable to them.
Some news has clearly found it's way to people out there. No holding RNS today so it's not just Harwood.
As a result of the sharp incline, at some point, I'm pretty sure that management are compelled to issue an RNS if any material conversations are taking place. Can't really remember the rules.
Well I opted to hold despite not wanting to be dragged into this ticker for another 12 months. That said, I think the presentation and outlook pointed towards a much more positive H1. So maybe a few more months in the doldrums.
If the Cosmens were going to make a play for the business I honestly think you'd be seeing it now. I think they simply secured a nice little nest-egg. No-one can buy the company without their blessing so where-ever the SP goes, it can't really fall prey to anything hostile or activist.
I think the update plus the reality there is unlikely to be a rate drop in the summer./
Are there many other tickers out there trading at under 1xEBITDA? Genuine question as I think this is the only one on my watchlists these days.