Member Info for joseywales

Well the bonds are holding if not improving. It's all down to the German PTA review and appointment of auditors. Could well be it's linked and any new auditors require the PTA settlement to be in place. So it's 80p by the end of 2025 or some kind of capital restructure to address asset base maybe. Would explain the joint broker appointment so worst case is addressed too. Since they removed pre-emptive rights in the last AGM it would also allow them to issue new shares if there was a party interested.

What I don't get is the German business really can't be that big. Anyone got a handle on the revenue there? Seems that it's a small thing to be anchoring the entire business right now?

I'm still waiting to buy another tranche in low 20's but it looks like volume has dipped some and purchasing is building.

The decline from the mid 20s pretty much coincided with the bond going from 37 to 50. Make of that what you will. That said a bond price at 50 in itself inspires little confidence.

Flatliners, since you are devoid of any structured commercial argument I will give you one .... if the company were to go into negative total equity for YE25 (which could be possible) ... whilst it meets cash obligations and might well recover from there, funds will be under an obligation to sell out as their governance will not allow them to remain invested.

The small 1/2 unit trades are trying to work out what's happening as well...or when to stop.

JG ... if it went into admin there'd be no distribution to shareholders. However, based on last update they said no requirement for capital restructure and cash there for the bond repayment. What they also said is that they would update the market before year end. So the update is not late until we get to January.

ALSA and the trajectory it's on is probably worth 1.5-2b but without Germany sorted, it cannot be unlocked. German bureaucracy at that level gives the French a good run for their money ... a meeting takes forever as you chew through an hour as everyone sat at the table gives their obligatory bio/intro! If they can get to a stage where they can present an agreement moving forwards and positive financial projections around it, then great. I think the reality is it will be a loss maker year on year to contract end and as far as the counter parties are concerned, they have a piece of paper which a reckless management team signed up to. I don't really know all the detail but they are in that market now and simply need to make the right decisions as they go into and win other contracts to deliver profit!

I think it's not so much cash but the net asset position. NASB has to come off books they have already stated that the write off will only be partially offset. You then had a net debt increase in the half year results and possibly more write offs on Germany business. However, I think the argument was more about whether they were applied in one 'hit' or applied equally over the contract periods. It's wooden dollars but they had net assets of 220m @ YE24. Not a lot to play with. Great example of why I hate intangibles ... on the most part they are simply a problem waiting to happen.

There's no RNS and no notifiable short addition. So ETFs doing their thing and possibly the Cosmens and company giving a push.

Of course, if the auditor issue remains ... the closer they get to being suspended maybe?

It's a necessary evil but good people that can deliver value will find new jobs.

The company simply have to reduce and shutdown UK services where they have probably held out too long hoping for improvement. They already committed to no requirement for change in the capital structure and it sounds like the 'ALSA' method is getting instilled across the company. In theory it could be run from Madrid at some later date as unprofitable UK stuff is shutdown/sold off. Hopefully they won't participate in that franchise carry on in the West Midlands and sell off the depots and buses they have.

They committed to an update before year end focussed on the move towards a more ALSA based approach to the entire business and how that models out financially in the mid to long term. A decent presentation will help things.

Additionally, the simple appointment of new auditors will propel this since that's holding many back from being able to invest.

WT ... had two dips into OCDO at 194 and 205. Out for now again. I think Kroger hangs over them plus shorting huge because of bonds. Whenever I trade them, think it can go to 150 just as 250.

Sold some SYNT. So many times see the spike killed off and the SP go below what the director bought in at. Time will tell.

Loading on MCG.

More likely there is just a short increase. They need to appoint new auditors, show cash generation, finally sort Germany, exit as much of the UK as possible .... so just a few things to keep management busy. Also not sure of WeDriveu has government based contracts ... the last 40 days would not help if so. They just need a good news day but for now it appears really great value and plenty of opportunity to quicktrade.

Casapinos ... kind of agree but actually what is more likely the case is you have an 11% coupon on the 2030 bond being sold at par. So more secure money/investment buying that which I would imagine has a rating meeting most funds' governance. Then short the equity as the hedge. So with 11% being a somewhat attractive number ... no wonder this is one of the most shorted.

You would not typically have a net short at notifiable levels if you are playing the short/long hedge at these levels. Remember it's a net position reported.

Barely £250K in trades ... I only bought £5K worth at 25.32, it changed the spread to 25.28-25.44 very, very briefly until MM was quickly filled. Like someone said, very clear what's happening.

Agree on the bargain front but no-one else seems to think so. Let's face it, ITV are negotiating a deal to sell part of their business for nigh on their market cap and it only moves the needle 15%. Nothing seems to excite anymore. This one has particularly stung last couple of weeks as it's simply been downwards each day since that last spike to 77p. Still RSI sub 20 now, so unless we see a very chunky holdings RNS, there have been more than just Man Group increasing their short.

would also add that consumer spend on sports remains stronger because of younger generations. you've got a 16-23 demographic asking their parents for money to buy gym shirts and trainers as opposed to booze and ***s!

You ain't wrong WT ... need a very cold winter! I've sold some here as I've moved more across to MCG earlier this morning. Still holding a lot though. If FCH drifts lower, will likely move from here across to there as well ... just heavily in stuff and no cash. Stings, but this selling seems far from over so will run the risk of losing the opportunity to buyback in at same level or lower. Plenty of fear in FCH when they were at 20's to mid 30s. Good management team there and I think similarly SYNT have a good team. My view is they will succeed here, whereas MCG who have similar debt pile issues; I have less confidence in past a quick 'trade'.

Interestingly I got out of JUP not just because it had stalled but because I had just completely zero'd out managed funds in one of my ISAs which were UK equity based. Had already addressed some time ago, but now just 100% out. Rebalanced between special ops, emerging, asia and Europe exc. UK. YOY performance is simply not there. If little old me is seeing that, then imagine what the real players are doing for long term return and growth .... LSE is clinging on to banging the drums about Princes food and some Beauty company ... again, last penguin on the iceberg stuff.

Just mentioned as also that could be another reason for the selling here.

I think OCDO has a few weeks in the lows as it seems to be the pattern. Just thought 207 was low but as always...it could go lower!!

Loskins, that 1.1bn NAV (which includes the debt) is right. However there's 923m of intangibles. Past acquisitions and the like are just a number on a piece of paper and as we know that what they acquired for Eastman was grossly overpaid and mismanaged. I hate intangibles and when you sit at the negotiating table you park them. You work a value set against current assets and ledger metrics. So there would be 200m of value base line. However two things playing out:

1. Cash management concerns - whilst the latest note from management stated cash neutral for the year, there is clearly concern that one missed step and it's a heap of trouble coming their way. In addition, bond holders might well be pushing for a raise to protect their end. The appointment of a second broker would certainly support such an argument. Hard to belief there'd be appetite for another one after the brutal one previously. There simply is no certainty on the cash outlook and they are treading water.

2. Selling off other businesses may bring some more illicit activity to the table. Suppressing share price clearly benefits the acquirer in terms of their negotiating position for any assets. I also think they need one to come in before Q1 2026 as they always go on about how cash heavy H1 is.

We've had no holding RNS to cover the selling this last week or two and RSI was 27 yesterday so imagine it's even lower now. A sale completion to bolster cash/reduce debt would do wonders. In the meantime you'd expect the SP to be subdued considerably.

WT ... trust you're fairing well. Jumped back into OCDO and JD. See WIZZ is quite down as well ... good entry point?

Thing is you take current sp to 1p through consolidation and issue…in theory they cannot raise enough to make any kind of dent in debt. Like I’ve said before, house of cards sat on AlSa and the more they exit the anchors, the better positioned for the future. UK bus out, out of DE, sell Uk coach. Strong business through Mediterranean Arc, Iberia, North Africa. Where bus/coach works. For now I bought and sell at 27/28. Just nice trading stock whilst it’s a flailing business.

The statement around cash was what I wanted to see. Means a decent lump of cash generation in H2 to come out neutral for the year. My biggest concern was a statement around debt restructuring when you have an SP driven to these levels.

They have the two formal processes in play to divest of non core and hopefully they will be looking to offload energy. The issue with energy is that its too hard to forecast ... the nature of the sector is unpredictable. Would be nice to see one close before year end.

For me MCG in 26's/low 27's is a buy. Tullow is having some swings again after JEfferys put their oar in. EVOK for Tuesday and loaded on FCH at 120 mark. Funded by what I had held in JUP for too long. (Watch that one soar again now ... I thought it was going 2+)

More of the same then. H2 cash generation is positive but we were told that was coming. Seem to be doing all the right things…nothing you can do about end market demand though.

I've umm'd and ah'd all week. Said I'd reduce but I haven't. Taking the view that management have appointed a new broker and are pushing the update out earlier than usual because they and maybe some major holders are frustrated but the SP. It could well be the SP is holding up/hindering negotiations on sale of assets. I mean that small Blythe sale was at 30% of where the mcap is now. If it wasn't for the Malaysian holding, they'd have plenty of people swarming around them to scoop up the business for a song.

Since the 15th, the buyback RNS no longer states the intention to cancel. Could be good in that they don't want amendment to issued shares prior to an announcement ... or could be bad. Any ideas?