Member Info for joseywales

It's not heavily shorted. Maybe 6-7% at best in total and you it's nearly all be hedged out as there's no short to failure play here. That climb was someone clearing and you have a little friend on here who's bought a seat and one of his opening salvos is not panning out so well and likely needs 25p or lower to meet margin expectations .... the other shorts are simply bigger, greater and wiser at the game being played!

I don;t really have the gauge on WIZZ. Bought a few more as made healthy on MCG earlier hoping I'll buy back in at same low 28 level again. I just think the metric on WIZZ as a business have been side-lined in the SP rolldown. Could be wrong but I think 1200+ could be a reality pre-results.

SYNT doing me well ... like you, sold a few and not particularly bothered if it fails to go back to the 92p again. Generally it works for me to reduce holding and be wary of a results day which might not look so great from a cash perspective. Just going to take a little longer for this one to come good I think as it's simply at the mercy of a world gone mad.

Love a broker rating. They saw it coming and given us all another chance to load up.

Imagine Citadel can get spots at some pretty exclusive places.

WT ... MCG looking nice to buy again for next run and grabbed some Wizz this morning. Results on 24th so reckon they will be good enough for a small lift.

Reducing SYNT a little to have cash for another push down. Average looks great but not if the results in Aug are more of the jam tomorrow messaging.

Well WT, hope you sold some on that news. My £2 by October is out the window now! Buy back in the 80p's I reckon!

Expect August to be continuation of last few updates ... so profit still there and markets stable but still recovering ... eaten into more cash though as opposed to cash generative. Shame, was really hoping this one would be one of the big winners this year.

Well the way I look at it these day is that when you think it's done ... it's far from done. Market players could take it all the way down to 800 and it would be no surprise. Plenty of shorts at play and not co-ordinated, so like you say 5% movements easily achieved.

I'm back to waiting here again. Arrowstreet's 850K shares are running this SP but they just reduced in FCH and another one so hopefully we will see same here.

Well I took some profit from MCG and grabbed a few more of these at a little over 104 this morning. Might be down here a while longer but 7th August not that far away. Not convinced it will go sub £1 this time around ... value sniffers are out and more cash heading in the equities direction.

I bailed on Wizz this morning as well. Not made that much on it really but I think it's going sub 1000 before long.

Yep...old school hit that. Just happened to be on a stormy night!

THG just gone again. Hopefully will will go down into the 25's for another final run before AGM.

Volume up here ... heading south on it too which is interesting.

Did not realise Monday was the 250 day JG .... could simply be Millenium had the inside sweep on a 'must sell' load and managed a 25.64 strike on all they shorted. I'm sure we will be none the wiser next week!!

No, even if you have bloomberg terminal and the like you cannot get it. I will ask a mate of mine as I know you can see some data but I think it's gilts and more about country notes.

You have to look at the bricks and mortar holding the company afloat. Unfortunately that's a lot of debt, and EBITDA consumed with UK/DE issues so that when you come to a valuation, after debt there is not much there. That is today ... however the jam tomorrow picture is looking better if they can address DE and just make UK pay for itself. 25/26p seems to me good punting ground.

There should be more disclosure on the bonds side and probably CFDs. Too many financial tools at their disposal in the small cap areas which funds can exploit since equity might only be a small part of a companies capital structure.

Yep, closing of shares sold which people don't have. A balance will need to be bought.

Also would fancy the Millenium weekly short is arbitrage set against bonds purchase. MW is always good to watch and if they reduced it's for good reason.

It's all about whether capital restructure would be required and unless ALSA go terribly south, its not going to be needed.

WT ... I bit at 109 here today. Had sold out of THG and hoping this is a quick trade (along with FCH at 110) to sell next week and put back into THG as is slides away into the 24/25s again.

I get Morgans rating from 210-200, but the Jefferies one from 107-100 is probably 'influenced' somewhat. They'd even put Elementis from 180 to 190.

RSI at 30 ... so this is looking just fine. In fact a bit more of a drop just to send it mid 20s will make the bounce very tasty indeed.

Sorry, if it's my point on Asset Value which sparked that off, I was merely using it as a case against which lenders/creditors view and why there is a valid short case which I'd say the smart ones are closing or at least gathering.

In my view, value at a conservative baseline level is 6 x EBIDTA plus asset value but strip out intangible. So not a lot here right now but could all change very significantly if they sort UK/DE to an extent and the debt reduction in USA sale. So get thing on trajectory and I think there's an SP of around 1.2-1.50 very realisable in the medium term ... maybe 1-2 years? They've just got to avoid steamy heapying the bed.

Trading at a multiple of NAV is no issue at all. Should trade at a multiple of NAV otherwise you're a business not deploying your resources into effective profitability. My point was purely related to corporate finance and how that works.

Whilst there no commercial acumen or structured argument, he might be right but it's really not hard to be right on downward calls in the market today.

So my take is like yours ... ALSA can manage debt post US sale.

So where analysts and profiling is generating this 'short' is on net assets. A significant part of this have been intangible reduction and provision. Historic activity loaded the intangibles and on the most part it's been proven they are not work the value. So ... where is that net asset value heading. The US sale will surely have an intangible knock off on the opposing side of the credit so at £220m at year end, this becomes important and precarious. Everything from new contract limitations and pressure for capital restructuring. The fact is petrofac is a closer and more relevant comparison than CIneworld but then that sums up Firepowers knowledge pool (devoid of any water). It's not really about the run rate of the business but more about the debt pile and how close they get to creditor based issues.

So this is the angle for doom and gloomers and why the 'math' analysis is putting this as a short. However, I personally think it's a close call but ALSA saves this with the trail that have lit on fire at the moment. Their profit and cash generation alone save the company even with the stinkheaps in UK and DE.

That's my take and some background on what the opposing argument could be if someone commercial was making the case.

Pretty relaxed with Wizz . The two reductions concerned me a little but will buy more if it goes to low 1000s.

Actually the profit I got from THG went on SYNT ... not a big number but added a couple of K. I really am committed to see this go £2 plus. Like the slow move it's making and noted the volume yesterday which was a little higher. Just hope I keep discipline and stay the course!

Loaded into MCG in 25s. First to admit it's not free of challenges and debt remains concerning ... however that SP is grossly manipulated. THG is kind of the same.

Hi WT ... it's certainly interesting. So I bought more MCG this morning low 25s so have average of 26.4 for all at moment ... more I look at it the more this could do what I hope SYNT will so might well keep half of them through the summer.

Missed buying back some THG in the 23's but imagine that will come next week and maybe into the 22s if lucky. Bought some more JD. just now but I imagine the drop has been driven by tariff chatter as clearly will impact the US business.

Sold rest of TLW as that rise is too fast and on back of Israel. Personally don't believe there will be long term impact on oil.

I'm a newbie to WIZZ and clearly when I was a £1 up a share the other day I should have sold and did not!

RSI for EVOK is still in the 40s so will keep an eye on that. I think that's the driver for me to take a punt on that share.