Member Info for joseywales

...Or the management team batted away offers for the business because possibly they knew any deal would collapse under due diligence ... and then here they are. Same result different road and the shorts knew it was coming.

Relating to WG.. the shorts knew it and kept increasing in the high 60s/low 70s. Dodged a bullet there as was waiting for it to get lower and that negative cash is huge. Will turn into a PFC I reckon. Disgraceful management and the arrogance of them kicking Apollo into touch. Anything around oil just seems like a corrupt business. I have TLW at the moment but it's a pure punt and maybe the well is dry and they have their heads in the sand. You simply can't trust most of what the management teams come out with these days. Maybe accountability and repercussions have disappeared these days.

Howdey WT. Yes, bought back what I sold but maybe this will go lower still now Artemis orders filled. Maybe that's the game being played ... flush out weak holders and get these into the hands of funds again. So that's Artemis and Henderson done ... who's next in the queue! That said I think March needs an update outside of the results. Net cash and non-cash impairments will no doubt throw cold water over the results. Need some meat on the bones of a decent trading and cash outlook for 2025. August is my timeline as I need a new car...back over 200 would be nice for starters!

I've got nice holdings in THG, TLW, WPS, JD. Hopefully one or two of them will serve me well in coming months. I still think the 280 mark for OCDO purchase. That said, I saw some of the shorts are reducing now.

Yes, I jumped on a load of FCH at 92p so it's worked out ok for me, just doubled up and then some for a short time. Sold today which was probably a bit early. Kind of hoping it will track back a little again. Very much 'storm in a teacup' was my take on it.

I think at 280s OCDO gets interesting to buy. Sell at 320+

I sold some SYNT and increased THG .... when it could not break that 160 and stalled in mid 150's I sold some but should have sold more! Bought some today but frankly nothing stopping this from going 120 bound. Like you say, will be a while till any decent reward turns up here. Complete absence of any holdings RNS and yet it seems like it's been sold off for months!

TLW, JD. have been further adds. Was really disappointed with DWL and that sucker of a deal. Had to dust myself off after that one!

Have you looked at WPS at all ... I've been running over the info available. It looks to me like it could be another Trustpilot type deal. Grabbed some, but sitting on the fence in terms of putting a decent number into it.

You'd have thought Azzuro were responsible for their own due diligence in assessing the loans and guarantees. Whoever did the diligence might be a little nervous.

To be fair I think the fraudsters will have already moved personal assets into other families names and the like. I imagine these are proper victims and whilst what Azzuro are doing could have legal merit, the morality of it sums up the hedge fund world really. Devoid of any humanity is a prerequisite!

Well it's moments like that when I wish I liquidated other stocks briefly and properly loaded up on this. Doubled holding but could have really gone all out for gold.

It's nothing dodgy. These guys are scraping the web and might well have got wind of scheduled court hearings and then just did their research. Just smart.

It's more rights of assignment than the debt itself so even if the case is ruled against Azzuro, its not like the debt disappears. The debtors involved just get a bit of breathing space whilst FCH has to work on some detail.

Sorry just saw the RNS now.

I've not seen anything relating FCH commenting on this ... where did you see this?

I just read a financial ombudsman's report going back to 2023 relating to Azzuro and a debtor. It pretty much sat on Azzuro's side and kind of read like the debtor was simply trying every which way to escape the debt. So maybe this is just a legal firm looking for the 'golden ticket win' to go to every company director/owner with a personal guarantee in place and offer some no win no fee carry on. If that could then be applied to business lease personal guarantees then what a gold mine they do find! Potentially the ramifications are more on the structure of PGs and if that becomes the case, business funding in the UK kind of collapses for the SME sector.

That'll give Starmer and co another headache which end up with govt backed structures which still track back to the individual ... ergo, one big waste of time, but plenty of billed hours!

Well I said under £1 but not for this reason!! Azzuro have certainly acted questionably against the people who had PGs on the loans and have charged exorbitantly against the original debt and default interest. They are the worst of the worst.

Hopefully through the sale process of the debt FCH will have defined their process and given Azzuro access to all documentation so that it sits with them however the case goes. If they lose, it just depends on the transaction documentation if they have any recourse back to FCH. Hopefully the terms set out in the sale agreement give them no recourse.

Built up TLW and JD. this week WT. Both might take a while to climb back to anything decent. What was the thing with WIZZ ... only briefly looked at report as not invested. However the 10% drop seems a little harsh .... was something else expected?

If SYNT can just get through to 160 this week, I'm thinking maybe 180 is fair for where it should be for now. H1 results/update will be key and if they show a little momentum against what they've said, then big change in Q3. Cash miss did not bother me too much when you're handling an SP delivering an MCAP of 1.5x EBITDA. This will get sniffed out for value soon enough.

Amazed it held 10%. I was expecting the opposite and a drag into the 30s. £26m inventory reduction made £7m cash. You can't really polish that steamy heapy.

No different to AO and Currys. Has some clout to block any low ball bids and has a seat at the table as and when a sale process becomes a reality. They either get a tidy return on their investment or an opportunity to acquire if things turn bad. It's really not the type of supply chain set up Frasers would want to manage as a deviation from what they have at the moment. Just smart investment at a low. Might be worth buying some Frasers too whilst the SP on their investments remain on the low side. (That said they've already made 25-30% plus on CURY).

Agreed, I think the update was ok. Certainly enough to get it into the 180-190 range over coming weeks you'd think ... but then who knows in this market. Net debt increase was downside but outlook on increased margins will more than compensate and see that start to reduce in the near term. If H1 25 demonstrates that then you have to think high 200s or more is conceivable within this year. Like you say 'stabilised' is the key feature today.

WT ... yes that 165 not too far and finishing just below 160 not inconceivable. I imagine the short is buying up enough to close if need be and then have plenty to do damage tomorrow if the update is nothing but positive. Certainly a few chunky spot buys today that would make you wonder if a mates had a word in his mates ear and all that!

Yep its a tricky one. I sold what was left of IQE so in same boat with some free cash ... sort of figuring IQE will pull back down in a week or two. I think I will probably go into TLW this morning. Been in and out of that and 20p mark is decent spot to enter again. Also OCDO on the drop again. Waiting to see if it goes sub 300 again before starting to build.

I have enough SYNT and holding it all into update unless suddenly 160 plus appears before Tuesday! I think it's a case of waiting it out for whatever is going on in the background to finish. It really isn't beyond conceivable that this has a Spring run like last year ... just need the business to be stable and generating cash.

I think it's just basketcase time with this one. Range has been tight and it would appear a seller is in the background with the short playing off it ... however no RNS to demonstrate that argument. Could quite literally go anywhere right now. If the update is a continuation of the last, you'd hope it would bring some stability and then it's just a waiting game for whatever is happening in the background to simply play out and the SP to re-rate. Could really do with more institutional but no divi and small caps is going to hold that back a little.

Hi WT, I get what you are saying about IQE ... it's basically great R&D but can't make it and sell it for toffee. Destined to be a division of a much larger entity.

That JDW business was to do with the debt I imagine? They just need to put prices up. They are so much cheaper than everywhere else that I can't imagine it being detrimental to footfall.

I've got THG going into tomorrow's update ... that might sting.

Grabbed 1850 of SYNT late on to add to my pile. Did not sell at 141 like you did on the last round. Kind of holding out for more like 165 before I consider starting to sell down ... whether I remain disciplined enough to do that is a very different matter. The company has to be in a better position than it was last year ... the market seems to think not.

LOTM ... well done on MIRI.

Worth a punt at 39p. TU will be dependent on just how much of a distraction all the de-merger carry on has been. No point knocking MM really. I see THG tut coming in this house all the time. If it's not the missus it's the kids. real beneficiary of this new gen of tik tok/ insta kids telling my girl what beauty tut to buy and my boys what protein to consume. This business can set sail again and cast off that ingenuity shadow.