Member Info for joseywales

Whilst I don't really think 30m will shift the needle, without overstating the obvious, a 7.5 multiple on EBITDA on the overall business would deliver an SP/valuation on a debt free basis of around £4.

If they could string together another 2 or 3 of these, it becomes something meaningful.

Yes, I bought a few lots between 80 and 85 and to be honest won't take any profit now. There's not really anything else I want to jump into near term and interims will be in 3 months. See this at least back at the RI price by the end of the year if not at interims.

Here's how I see it if SYNT were to be valued (not that it will as Malaysia holding stops that):

Lets say EBITDA is 180m this year. Very conservatively 5 x is 900m. If you then look at the assets you have 1.1bn of which 900 are intangibles, which I'd remove leaving 200m. The debt is already factored into that net asset figure and you could spitball the 200 down to 100. So I'm ending up with a really crazy valuation for the business against today's SP and that's before managements belief they can get this to 300m EBITDA. I must be having a bit of a dull brain moment as I was going to be happy when this went back over 200p.

Biggest risk is probably a play by large shareholder group to take it private. By about August I think the trailing SP and what's been paid in the last year, would enable it at 150-200.

I know WT, it's probably like mentioning Macbeth or whatever it is for stage actors! In their usual understated way it looks like they will profit even more from protectionism if anything, since demand reduction may be offset by gains from competitors who are hit by tariffs. Either way, an update which gives some confidence set against the SP shenanigans.

Yes, sigh of relief really. Nothing negative in the statement other than the trump induced turmoil and it's potential impact on demand (as everywhere). Good statement relating to the impact of tariffs and local manufacturing. If they maintain EBITDA growth and see the 300m target as achievable in 2026, there is no massive rush to deleverage but I imagine the idea behind it is to get back to shareholder returns. Can't imagine any divestments eating considerably into the debt anyway....

Well the goodwill impairment has basically halved the net assets in the business.

With school buses extracted from EBITDA there's a little over £300m of which all is likely generated by ALSA. Only reporting on covenant debt is cute ... debt is debt so whilst the covenant debt is the one you get called out on, the rest has to be paid back to! So the issue is they cannot service the debt and provide return to shareholders in the near future. All they can do as a business is service the debt.

So if the Cosmens actually do want this, they go to the ii's to reach agreement and get the 70% over the line to take private after months down at this level so trailing SP allows a 50/60p scenario.

Flip side to that, is simply looking at a 6x multiple on EBITDA on a debt free basis (which the market is far from today). That makes for better reading on SP target you'd have thought.... however you'd have to strip out the intangibles element which would arrive you back at the 50/60p anyway.

I did not think the RNS was that bad considering the write off was already expected. Bottom line is the value of the business has been hugely eroded by mismanagement. Surprised the SP is holding up but would expect a collapse in new broker targets over coming days/weeks.

Yes I was, only a small holding of 13000 having been in and out of it for ages over several years. Took the hit when the RNS appeared. Might buy them back in the 20s but will see what management have to say but won't go long now. Should be some quick trade opportunities whilst this becomes quite a distressed ticker.

Mayster ... it's simply the wrong way to look at it. It's 200m market cap with a 1bn debt pile even after school bus sale. Intangibles on assets also become pretty irrelevant to any potential 'suitor' when compiling an offer package since you are buying the companies whose 'goodwill' are in those intangibles. That would basically push net assets into a negative 500m. This is before you get into just how long it will take (and if) UK/DE business can be turned around. So just maybe this business has a debt free value of 1.2-1.5bn at best. You then have the risk side of the long term maintenance of the debt and it's reliance purely on one part of the business to keep performing. The risk of financial restructuring is likely to be high and D4E packages are the likely means for preying hands to get into the business. Speculative buy at best as doubt management will be pulling any rabbits out of hats tomorrow.

Why would they reduce? $122 of EBITDA goes. Debt remains above £1bn. If Germany and UK keep bleeding then covenants will get breached and an RI gets taken off the table if SP is pulled into the 20s (if not already). It really is quite horrific reading. At 5.6 times on the EBITDA without US buses maybe there is £1.5bn ... strip out the 1.5bn of intangibles and the business is barely worth the debt. I said 20p's but once analysts work their stuff, could look a damn site worse next week. Going to be a real 'jam tomorrow' update from management I'm sure.

Cosmens get this of a D4E deal if they seal a deal with the major ii's.

Probably right about the ultimate Cosmens play. However, as of now, the slightest miss-step at ALSA will send the group into debt re-structuring and all that nasty stuff. As close to failure as they can get right now. No reason why this could not see the 20s soon.

Yeah, I think it's the 1st May. It's the same day as the AGM I think. Just a trading update so doubt it will have a huge material effect. Meeting management expectations/forecast simply doesn't float anyone's boat at the moment. Pi's might sniff an opportunity but there's no funds cash for this type of 'speculative' buying at the moment when you have likes of JD Sports at historic lows with their record on returns. (Plently more of them out there as well, where US money has dumped the UK exchange).

Hi WT, I'm not really trading so much. Used ISA allowance and bought across 8 stocks last week which included just under 5K of these again. Also used up other cash sat uninvested. This tariff game is going to take a while to play out and I'm sure todays upswing will be quelled by some other Trump comment ... however, resisting to urge to do quick trades though as ultimately holding long will by far exceed the trade play I think. Did same more by accident in 2008/9 and by 2012/13 a modest became quite a change maker. We are obviously nowhere near those levels, but the Trump induced calamitous backdrop is there and the potential reversal will be much faster.

Will have more cash next week so frankly this level can last all summer and then some. Will simply keep putting cash in the system now.

I expect SYNT will report very much in line with CRDA with a meeting expectations type update with continuing sales upswing and maybe a cash neutral type position/forecast. At the end of the day I'm sure they will simply be adding a tariff surcharge onto customers with no real vision on longer term impact as no-one has a clue where this is all going. Once there's certainty, then fund money will come back into equities.

RSI just over 30 now and clearly a motivation to keep sub 85 if possible. Imagine the small holding reduction was a symptom of fear and monies being withdrawn from funds creating some forced selling across portfolio.

I think I'd rather be buying all that cheap Chinese product that the factories will be wanting to ship over here as opposed to the USA. Chunky discounts already available!

That aside, will buy back in when everyone else does and not even try to predict where the low will end up.

Does anyone know if synt manufacture in USA or or they effectively distribution centres?

Lower! It’s potentially 2008 scale. I was buying likes of Rio tinto in the 300s back then. What I said yesterday is irrelevant against the backdrop we are now looking at.

Within weeks all prices in USA increase. Could descend into mass protests and even rioting. Expect we will get a date change over weekend.

Well LOTM I think WT will get it right if he's diving in now. So we should get a trading update with the AGM on the 1st May and between now and then, plenty can be done with shorts/CFDs and the like to build and make significant money on this ticker. Like you point out, it's happening with multiple tickers where participation is relatively low. There is of course the news feed element but really it's opportunity driving this in tally with market sentiment. RSI is about 40 here now, which is about the lowest SYNT has been ... still could go lower I imagine if they give it a push for sub £1. Update just needs to confirm they are on track with what they said or beating it. Directors are in, Artemis are building .... so aside from the white noise in SP 'management', there does not seem too much to worry about.

Ha ... everyone seems to be going to Marakech at the moment ... and yes Alsa is all over the place. Remains the problem with this 'group'. There is one performing company in it holding the rest afloat. Need to get the USA deal done but imagine they are getting nowhere near expectation in the current environment. The sharks in the US will want to buy it on a foundation of debt and money is simply not cheap. They dragged their heals and now its likely they are not getting realistic bids. Could be their working out how structurally they can keep it and still have a debt reduction plan.

I'm out of OCDO for now. Like you, bought EVOKE at 51 today.

Simply holding long on SYNT ... 112 seemed beyond a joke. I think it touched 109 and I'm not so sure we'll be seeing that low again. Would not be surprised if if slowly gets back to high 130/40 before stalling over next few weeks.

Yes, on the whole it's just about holding your nerve and staying committed. You dodged a bullet with EVOK and I did the same with a lesser extent with THG which I plan to look at buying back what I'd sold once the impact for the 90m extra shares gets felt tomorrow. I'm sure plenty might get lent out!! Aside from that, it is all about resolve as tickers are taken to some unimaginable lows and held there.

For WPS, it's the only one I hold where I think a bid might come in eventually. The way buys are supported continually to keep this where it is, it reminds me of that Kin and Carter or whatever they were called. They sold way lower than anyone expected (110/120 I think) but was great for those in the 50/60p window. Again ... time, resolve and park the holding somewhere you don't look everyday!!

Won't be on SYNT for a while as maxed what I will hold having grabbed another 12K the other day and I've got no interest in a quick swing trade on them anymore.

Oh ... and I've also been biting at MCG again. A lot of fud about results delay but I reckon they want to update about US process and maybe on this occasion there's finally something working out for them. Low 60s seem relatively low risk.

Hi WT, yes I think it looks good for WPS. I grabbed another 8K today just to bring my total to a nice number. You're not wrong about the market! As you know I have TLW into today as well and it's being properly played to stop any kind of upwards momentum. I like buybacks when they are to the scale FCH did! I guess £25m with the impact an announcement would have on the SP, would not really be as great here.

Only 400K traded (at time of writing) on a results day is laughable really. I guess it's just completely overlooked.