Member Info for joseywales

Yeah WT, I suppose we just have to wait and see. 3M also reported well today.

This is really being managed well at sub 140 ... I've had others like IQE, WG and OCDO all doing as expected and only left with some in IQE at the moment. This one is not providing any opportunity as the drops are only met with a stupid range really. Is it possible that the short is in to assist a build?

This could well be happening because of the tariff situation. IQE could become quite a winner if Trump delivers what he's promising. Does not change near term fundamentals so imagine shorts will open/increase at 14/15 if it gets that far.

Nice update from Elementis this morning. Q4 uplift in revenue and operating profit, beating expectations. So not all wrong with the world.

Agreed, but for now I'll take my 70p and run as fully expect this'll be down at 62p again before the game's over. Can't imagine we will see results of the review anytime soon and the sharks are still circling.

Big cut from Jefferies down to 140. Analyst must have got a real good slap up meal for that one!

Going into the update next Tuesday down at this level I imagine. Should be fun.

Well WT, got out of OCDO this morning at a little over 300. Just bought 1975 of these with more in tank in case it does get into the 120s. Also added more FCH just in case it won't go lower. I thought sub 110 or even 100 was on cards but they cleverly put out a TU before the lock out period.

Well letting everyone know they still have 15m to burn through on buyback might put an end to what’s been a great buying opportunity. Have to wait and see if the seller the short has been piggy backing on decides to stop.

WT ... only bit on THG today. Will see what Monday morning brings now. Could do with OCDO getting a pre-update surge.

Struggle to believe that anyone for a minute thought the US jobs report was going to show anything but an addition way above the muted expectation. December + Trumps desire for tariffs.

So a booming US and a recession destined UK .... FTSE250 almost given back 2024 gains within week 1 of 2025. Quite the accomplishment. Liz Truss was bonkers but this lot are like giving the reigns to a bunch of students.

WT ... yes, the bad news cycle and maybe more at 13.30 today is providing what appears to be some really great opportunity. So far so good but aside from selling off CURY and FRES to up liquidity for 'opportunity', I've bought and held for minute. Think there could be real turns in a matter of 3-6 weeks on many. Eyes on WG. for me today. Will buy back in there again today.

HNY LOTM

The RSI has dropped to 30 here. Could certainly get a bit lower but should set up nicely for a bounce. Like you say LOTM, we've been here before and last Jan it hit 122 before climbing all the way into the 300s over a few months. Can but live in hope this repeats itself. (Although I'll be completely out by the time it's 250ish and deal with the regret)!!

Looked at Mirriad .... thing is, isn't that sector having an even harder time of it. Struck me it would be picked up for a small premium on the current SP if at all. I had the same sort of passion for MMAG last year and ended up with a 50% gain as opposed to the small multiple I was hoping for. If they hadn't been picked up there was a dilution event coming and I imagine the same with MIRI may occur? That said, I've been buying away at IQE in the 10p's which could end up a similar kind of gamble.

Hi WT ... yep, kind of liking it at the moment but not if it turns into something a little longer term!! OCDO was great in the 280s today and FCH in low 120s. Did not buy SYNT today ... have faith in it but need to keep ammo in case it drops further.

I read the Berenberg note and thought is was OK. I usually think those notes are for sale but what they said seemed fair.

I think the UK construction sector news would not have helped here today either. The tide of 'other' news would certainly appear to be against Synt bucking the trend.

Yes they are due to update on the 28th ... you can go to the financial calender on the Synthomer website. That's why I think the short went above notifiable when it did. Lock out period stops insiders from scuppering any plans. Of course it's completely feasible to have other sellers on the back of that .... but volume seems too low.

The lack of liquidity is the issue. It's not just London exchange. Personally I don't think this is a reflection on the company's trajectory ... I imagine Arrowstreet have been behind quite a lot of the ups and downs we have seen post the RI and it's turned out a nice little earner for them I'm sure. So long as they keep finding sellers that SP will keep sliding down the ladder!

The metrics already stated are slightly FCF positive FY24, still sluggish but margin pick up due to cost savings, likely a poorer close in Q4 than expected but still around that 140-160m EBITDA level.

Issue will be that we will still not return to a divi stock and no material change to net debt. They need to chip away at this in '25 and attract more funds. I also suspect the Malaysians holding such a large % scares funds off too.

The alternative will be a shocker of an update on the 28th but then I'd have thought they'd be obliged to update the market with a profit warning if that were the case.

The thing with ingenuity is that to scale to where it needs to be it will need several rounds of funding yet to cover huge selling costs and onboarding of business globally. (Just like any software company). Any PI that rolled into it will either get a quick result in terms of sale to Apollo / Toma Bravo etc ... or more likely lose their money in the rounds of fundraising needed. It would make sense for an interested party to make an offer for retail shares held...seen that happen before in unlisted entities.

We need GMHK back here with his/her chart info. Was very close to calling the big rise from the mid 100s right last year.

Funny, so many dabbling around in the same. My view is that this and SYNT will show some good return in the next month or so. Also watching CPI but having been in and out of that for nigh on 5 years ... reckon that dog might well be lame now. Hope you did not sell all THG holding ... reckon that one is a big changer going on main list. Could carry on up for a little while I imagine (and hope).

Should sail now. More funds will have access to acquire and shorts should likely reduce. They could throw more short shares into the pot but as someone already pointed out, the reduction in float shares will make it a little harder to work. Even more so if IIs buy decent holdings.

Yes, agreed. Some nice opps on OCDO, FCH, TLW for me. Made up for a pretty dreary Oct-Nov period. There's a quant short on FCH now as well, so expecting that will bring some nice opportunity.

Out of PFC but bought the dip on WG. and fully expect more dips to come with MW &co increasing short trying to keep it down.

As for SYNT ... bought more on this drop but if Monday starts cold, fancy they could pull this all the way down to the 120s again. I don't believe there's a seller. Just reckon the algo has found a sweet patch to work in while participation is low. Also increased short just as Directors etc would be in lock out period prior to update. Just pure guesswork though.

I just took 3510 more. Had to take a very slim margin on OCDO to make it work and hope I'm not going to be regretting that. Thinking this is setting up nicely for a bounce during Jan.