Member Info for joseywales

Well in fairness it's holding pretty well considering the general market. Maybe you are right and their algo is simply managing the range. Personally I like the idea of a lower SP so the buyback picks up more shares in total. Even better for the long run.

Hi WT ... well this morning was a nice surprise. Everything reacting to the US stance. Opted to empty the coffers for hopefully a decent new year return.

Not worried here about that short when there's an update Jan 30 will simply give more purchase opportunity if they drag it down between now and then. It only needs to be along the same dreary lines as the last update. A cash generative outlook in '25 would be a result!

Don't think it' just end of year. Cannacord looked like it was just a client reducing. Fancy there's a bigger seller in the wings not yet RNS'd and still selling. Give it a few months and hopefully this will climb back up again.

The short is a quant player. So the math is done and says they can make this SP dance with about 1.5m shares in play. Between now and March, I no longer think it will climb over 150. If anything they could take this down sub 100. Today you probably had retail shorters piggy backing on the new notification as well. Has nought to do with the company performance and all to do with sector performance/trading patterns/volumes etc. No news till March is a big window for them to play in.

On the bright side (!) we might all get the opportunity to buy cheaper and more importantly the company's buyback cash eats further into the issued shares.

Could it be that they are banking on the current 25m closing and no further buyback happening? These things are supposed to give everything some kind of probability but I wonder if it took into account that the board does not need shareholder approval to simply do another tranche of buyback (so long as it remains under 15% of issued shares).

Will be interesting to see how it plays out and if it really can win against the buyback. Seems very odd.

Well I just got a notification saying someone has popped their head above the 0.52% short interest. Not a lot in the grand scheme of things, but on the daily traded volume it's enough. We get an update end of Jan don't we?

My view is that it is primarily a balance sheet movement to better reflect cash in the business. The restrictions on it's use from a company law perspective disappear. However, what funding partner arrangements are in place in terms of cash to availability etc ... who knows.

Like I say, if the company remains on plan I think a small divi in March and continued buyback will elevate this company further. The divi is important just to be viable for more funds and get it moved up the FTSE as MCAP continues to increase.

IT's early days in terms of profitability and a cash generative future. They had that little 'Covid boom' and now it looks like the business is on track to become what it was originally destined for.

Such a good move getting out the US space as well.

With that 293m they could acquire I guess. Alternatively maybe there is something they have identified to support growth which requires investment. Personally I think they will maintain buyback and put through a small divi. Turning it divi paying will attract new ii's.

It really does seem they want to protect the SP and get it above a certain level. I imagine they are fending off unwanted advances at the moment as the SP remains highly discounted if they are delivering on what they have said. (Mind you that comment is not really rocket science when the 293M is only a little below the MCAP).

It's related to the passing of the resolution at the GM that prompts it. Nothing to do with the end of year ... it might well take them longer than that to sell out of positions held in funds which cannot be invested. This is purely my interpretation and could be completely wrong and it's just a regular 'seller' as opposed to forced. Could just be some profit taking to pay for Xmas!!

Personally I think the results are uninspiring. The 20m cash generated by 50m reduction is stock is not exactly pointing to a cash generative business and the continuing decline in revenue will simply make overhead recovery too difficult. I like this company and enjoy going to Majestic far more than crumby supermarkets. That said, the future probably needs to be a further reduction in retail presence or a change in how they are deployed to optimise recovery in them. Otherwise it fails and get's picked up out the ashes as an online only solution.

Think you might find it's the second part of the General meeting which is creating the seller. Some funds will simply have a policy about holdings which allow dilution without approval. Whilst the 293m being distributable is a strong positive the other part will create forced selling and opportunity to buy back in over what might be a turbulent end to the year. That's my take but what ever way, each time a fund sells, the dip provides opportunity to buy again.

Hi WT ... things certainly a little more interesting. Was out Friday and let things ride. I've sold a little SYNT today but mindful that at some point this won't drop back to those 160s. I think this will be a real winner in '25 but who know when exactly that will be. Can't see the next update being full of positivity but might have some roots of optimism in terms of outlook.

Trading wise, OCDO been interesting and I like it where it is as a massive dive into the 200s seems really unlikely. On WG. sold out and now started buying again this morning ... think we will see sub 60p again but that 70p (I sold there but it went higher I know) was a nice run on nothing special. Just plan on building all the way down again.

WINE I had increased but the climb is making wonder if I might sell some before results tomorrow.

Interesting you mention PFC ... I took some in the 10s for a punt. Matter of time before it blows up but think that won't be until Q1 '25.

Also started buying FCH again around low 130s and THG has been a nice window between low 40's and mid 40's. Wonder if that stops now though. Sold some this morning in 46s but at some point it's going to hold and climb.

Things have been somewhat better of late so hopefully this week will see some more 'pleasant' activity!

Holding on to see if this goes down to low 160s. Probably a bad call as the trading volume remains so low.

Been enjoying OCDO of late and WG. might have an interesting time. Opted to sell out and hoping to buy again sub 60.

On another note, my 1500 was picked up as a sell. Just goes to show the strike price needs consideration rather than trusting the morningstar feed or whatever it is being used here.

Agreed FS, succinctly put. I bought another 1500 today and 1320 yesterday and plan to continue here. I don't think it will double but, getting back over 200 in Q1 25 should be very realistic based on no 'adverse' news. Adversity seems unlikely but like you say, demand remains low. Aside from peace, the world needs China back into growth mode and packages to support that ... this is not looking great considering the impending Trumponomics. Whilst I might not warm to the guy, for USA inc. ... it's not an outrageous stance.

Realistically these reviews take months. In the meantime there will be plenty of guesswork. It's non-cash but there may be further cash implications down the road with customer non-payment, claiming certain breaches or performance metrics which it's hard to argue against when it's discontinued activity. So from a cash forecast perspective there maybe issues.

Whilst It's been good to average down here, I'm more than aware that this could tank substantially further upon the reviews closure, but consider it highly unlikely. I think cash in from those pending sales is more important short term.

Interesting one WT ... I did not sell mine yesterday which I'd got at 1.61. Solely because the volume has dropped off and I wonder if the sell off has stopped and now you will have those which were following the sell off needing to buyback. I actually bought more at 1.68 yesterday selling off some WG. and a quick win on OCDO. Thought we'd see high 170's today and wrong as usual!

Fairlysolvent ... understood and get it. Announcing another sale of non-core before XMAS would be nice to hear!!

Not really. The Malaysian holding is a blocker to any kind of realistic bid unless there is a separate divestment of palm oil related activities in the process, whereby they maintain a controlling presence.

Yep tough period. When you think it's bottoming out it keeps on going! OCDO have just popped up on my phone so that could be interesting to start another run at. If I buy now at 303 it will be 250 by the end of next week!!

Hi WT, I'm a little sat on my hands at the moment. Got some interesting positions but I think nearly all will make moves (one way or the other) in the new year. Maybe THG will be this side of Xmas. 40p level looked like value but some on that board are right on that structure they are pushing through ... surprised it's legal the way they are managing where the debt goes.

LOTM ... I think this is just adrift and will be until closer to a news date. I've added today and will sell that lot at high 170s if it comes at all in next week or so. Could go down to 140s for all I actually know though!

Well there’s the RNS. Not sure what to make of it really. Positive support at a cost.