Member Info for joseywales

Must have gone into oversold territory already ... thought it would get into 24s or even lower but maybe the math doesn't work there.

Dinkydoo, whilst I'd agree with most, I think the valuation metric is wrong factoring in debt and considering how any buyer would handle what remains of intangible aspect after writedowns,

Cash generative seems to be happening now (albeit small) and payments against bonds and the like do not seem to be under threat in slightest. The half yearly will be really in focus to see this sort of trend and then if maintained, maybe the 3-4 year mark you see the 150-200 SP level again. Bit of positive momentum and maybe this could return to 80-100 by end of this year.

That said, very rocky road for them to cover still and deliver meaningful half year results after a long period of 'under-delivery', 'what if's' and 'we weren't expecting that'!

Chatter about hybrid bond are people/teams trying to manage this and build at this level. Manipulation supporting builds as opposed to a company destined to the basin.

Nothing like insincere ex-colleague posts wishing the best and congratulating exemplary incompetency. Not so good is the fact they themselves are still at the company basking in Garat's significant success!! Brilliant.

If it had the ability to do that, the gameplayers would not be touching this ticker. Going to be some good opportunities with this as it's got some volatility back in it. Of course that only works if the SP goes up as well as down!! Catching out all the day traders into the close I expect so might be able to buy some in low 25's by end of day.

Whether 20p is a reality or not, time will tell. I personally think the Cosmens could then rally other major holders to get over the 75% threshold and delist. Would be smart business if the UK/DE looks solvable in some way. I think the rules are that the price would need to meet or exceed the trailing 12 month high for those not wanting to be party to it.

I think the concern has been how they will manage the debt after US sale. They have two basket case businesses in the UK and Germany but ALSA is storming. ALSA alone can manage the debt but it needs to continue its trajectory and the Cosmen purchase (whilst clearly a pot of shares at another 'low' as they have done before) is more about confidence in ALSA.

With FirstGroup now generating some good cash ... maybe they should offload the UK to them! Clearly the Mobico team in place within that business lack a competency and senior management have been allowed to hide behind the term 'complex restructuring' for too long.

My view is buying in the 27's makes sense. I think the shorts will gather shares prior to results and drive this upwards in next couple of months. Huge winner for the shorts when you think Systematica started in the 130s!

Not into EVOK right now ... keep considering it but they just seem so encumbered with challenges. That said, I'm ploughing along with THG at their 23p levels having sold some of my TLW this morning and put it there. Frasers are up to something and that Revolution Beauty news earlier makes me wonder if the THG stake has a little more meat on the bones than a simple investment.

Saw the buys at WIZZ so will have to wait ... quite a few are looking good today so hard to say whether the bashing has finished.

Like the fact SYNT is just slowly creeping upwards day by day. If it could carry on doing that through to results time then that works for me.

Think the opposition would be the result of the holding they have. You have a board member with a significant holding (which they have increased) while being a bit more privy to information than other investors. They have a blocker in effect. MCG is untouchable without their approval.

GLG and MW reducing their shorts is always a good sign. Took buying today as a real steel and no doubt I'll be saying that at 25p and 23p. A long way off for news, so plenty of game playing to be had.

Used to be a real advocate of this company, however if you look at a valuation debt free, in my view with current numbers, there is very little there. Not that there would be a buyer, but if you were you'd have a decent value on Alsa which would cover debt, small value in the US and then you'd have a bundle in ESCROW to be fought over in future years based on the DE and UK basket case businesses they simply failed to get control of. So really, the news in August needs to be yet more profitability in ALSA and growth in WEDRIVEU or whatever it is. Then of course cash generative which goes without saying.

There was mention of a D4E play headed by the Cosmens ... issue is that takes them over 30% and there's no exemption on the takeover rules for D4E as far as I'm aware.

Will see how it goes. Hopefully it's not on a slide into the sub 1000. Surprised MCG went into the 27's so fast. Hopefully that will be a quick trade for the week too.

Oh yes, and I'm messing with IQE at 10p too for a punt.

Hi WT, I've bought some WIZZ this morning. Imagine it might continue to drop during the week but looks like it has been killed on 'no guidance' from a profit perspective. BME ... I think 250s is a reality for them so will wait. MCG into low 28's high 27s I'll buy again. Once TLW hits 18.5 I'll start to sell a few of them. On the THG run again and hoping for another climb up to the 26/27p during the week. Bought back what I'd sold in JD. on basis I think there will some common sense applied to the tariff saga and I'm doubting it will go as low last time.

Saw that spike in SYNT Friday morning ... should have sold a few but did not....bad call!

Completely depends on what is stated in the Articles regarding the board seat.

Seen what he has done with Curry's and AO ... it's an investment which will show nicely in Frasers books. If it goes the other way then they pick the pieces up for peanuts (although that failed at Debenhams).

Can't see how this fits with the group. They have not really acquired a vertical. MA could certainly help facilitate a sale though and be a nuisance for MM.

Hi WT, just come out of another cycle with FCH. Worth watching to see if it drops below 110 again. Done it a couple of times now. Regret selling VANQ but on board with OCDO. Also will see if BME continues to be pushed downwards after todays results. Weren't dreadful but I guess net debt increase was taken badly along with not profitability boost alongside the revenue increase. Some fun at THG too to be had.

The market reaction was a bit meh! Have been adding a few down at these sort of levels ... something decent in September should catapult this and not sure where that short is going to find the 1% they need to give back ... unless they have a big CFD on the other side of course.

My inclination with SYNT would only be to buy more right now. Have a big number already tied up but not really seeing the argument to do otherwise at this level. It's not like MCG where I bought back in at 28 and consider it full of risk even at that price! That one I'll just be trading in and out of if the opportunity arises. Also been building TLW nicely...can't see the oil price being dragged through the dirt and they've chipped away at that debt nicely.

I honestly thought I'd read WG. was no longer suspended. Must be going mad.

Hi WT, WKP are on my watchlist. Not invested because I'm not sure how much it's on the turn just yet. Occupancy is up though reducing sqft in these companies at moment. Could be interesting but I think this NI carry on will have some companies culling headcount in quite an arbitrary fashion.

Sold what I had in VANQ this morning ... always thought it could double at least from the 50s but the solid trading statement is kind of overshadowed by what might come. Was considering a punt on WG. but the price window is ridiculous. Probably best to hold the cash for next Trump statement of lunacy.

COVID irrelevant to SYNT now ... policies in healthcare etc all changed so demand is steady stream at probably quite low margin. No doubt the uptick will get killed off.

Hi WT, I've not sold any of these. I am holding a lot, way more than I'd usually be comfortable with. I have no intention to sell. My view is this is all about a build and that last broker rate was a dinner I could with! There's been little in the way of RNSs, so likely a few hedge funds having a lot of fun with it. It's all just guess work though.

On the fundamentals ....I know that its the common trend to moan about management when things are south, however, I think the management team here are delivering a turnaround. That sale (albeit small) was no fire sale like you see over at MGC and hopefully they will deliver more deals which whilst not great, chip away at the debt pile. That said, the debt pile is far more manageable even at current EBITDA levels and management seem to be delivering on a promise to improve that %. So in all, we have the August interims to look forward to and like I said, would not surprise me if this is 200+ by October. Like I said before also ... 2026 might have the divi word attached.

What you don't really want to see is a play to take it private by existing majors as that might only deliver 170-200. It must be something potentially on their minds with the SP down here. In fact that could be the build but again, who knows!

I'm barely breakeven at the moment and when this has another 50p on it I guess that's when I get tested in terms of resolve....

I know you don't like THG from memory, but that's one I've been chipping into whilst it has been in the 25-27 range. Sold at a loss previously but liking the potential value there.

$300m inbound to chop more debt out will do the trick. It's a meaningful whack.

Said the cash requirement was the gamble at MIRI. A bit alarming the going concern language was put into play so early on. Hope you jumped ship soon enough.

I'm still trying not to trade so much. Some JD were sold of Friday simply because I was holding too many and was in at low 70s for quite a lot of them. Will likely buy OCDO if they drop some more tomorrow. Also keeping an eye on MCG ... sold on the US sale news and will buy back in at some point. Just seeing if it goes into low 20s.

WT, would not short here. It’s being played for long and PI flush out. Lets see where we are in October as it think it will be over 2 by then.