Member Info for joseywales

OCDO RSI at 21 now. I am having a good size punt on that. It has been a real winner for me and hopefully will deliver again in coming weeks/months. Kroger comment was shorters dream but will run out of steam. Technology is something like 300m and I'm sure the license deal is a bulk of the EBITDA generated ... however, if you really believe the board of Kroger would permit an interim CEO to reign fire on the lot ... then that's as nuts as the comment made on the OCDO board most the time. Also I think I remember Ron Sargant from Office Depot days ... hope I've got names mixed up.

On SYNT I sold what I bought in the high 50s. If it carries on slowly creeping up then great. It's my largest holding so either way works.

Think I agree with you Blackspider aside from intangibles on the books which I hate and there's lots of ways to skin a cat as we all know. So I would say even if you remove intangibles from equation , the SP trades at about 1.5x assets if that and is pretty much mirrored by the EBITDA multiple. The concern is simply cash and actually it's similar to other tickers like MCG. What the company trades at, it's EBITDA and all that gubbins is irrelevant if cash becomes a significant constraint on the business.

If this business was to turn cash generative even to the tune of 20/30m over 2026, its on route to £4/share. Cash neutral, and divestments of maybe 100m or more ... maybe back to £2.

Now lets say they sell USA operations and pretty much clear debt ... game changer.

However any such potential upsides is met with considerable risk to be holding now and if the market wide cycle continues, then in 6-12 months time the only badge of honour we can wear is that of being the last penguins on the iceberg!

No quick fix here as the review will take an age. The hedge funds have petitioned well to get that JPM SP downgrade and imagine they will be chasing more of their brokers to follow suit. Same old cycle with Ocado …. never a dull moment.

What you have here is where legislators create bureaucratic money pits. Saw it with REACH and this sounds like an extension of that. This is where Brussels gets a little bit out of control and the good news for SYNT is it usually impacts the small regional companies the most. SYNT, BASF, CRODA etc would have been part of a consultation process for all this. In a roundabout way, the process helps large players protect their pie.

Wonder if this drops back the the 58p-60p again next week?

WT ... hope your still having fun with THG. That was a great drop and run. OCDO looks good I think too ... the Kroger thing was well overdone.

916 seems like the favorite number of the day from someone/thing!?

The site by site review will take an age and whilst a new CEO wants to make an impact, to write off that investment won’t go down well. Also, moving to store driven fulfilment won’t be more cost effective as labor costs in US are mental now. More likely is a slowdown in investment and hope of in store driven growth. People in the US love a trip to the shops…retail is not the vape shops, cafes and pound shops we have in UK!

Yet again opportunity knocks here. If it goes down to the 200 mark so be it, but seems like a good time to start buying these again.

Assume an update is around the corner too?

Algos moving towards buys as well so market seems to view stability as positive. Cash is king and all that so the debt side is a real positive in today’s climate.

Would give it time. You can say SP = MCAP or lower, however the company is barely worth it's net debt position particularly once a haggle over intangibles is complete. Personally think it needs to go lower for a 'punt'. They tried to polish that report but it's horrific really ... a continuation of the 'ifs buts ands' they've been churning out for the last few years.

Increased net debt by 50m+, wedriveu now having issues with contracts (like Germany was not enough), increasing revenue met with less profit….just a trading ticker at best. One hiccup at Alsa and the cards collapse.

Decent. Thought the drop this morning was worth and increase. Time will tell, just a bit of patience needed. Continuing buyback has to have an impact at some point.

Yep, you nailed it ... all future based at the moment. Not a lot going on right now. Whilst the existing portfolio not enjoying these lows, just wondering when to jump in. Went for OCDO today at low 300's and big top up on THG in 26's, got out of WOSG ... relieved more than anything as felt that could have gone south quite easily. Only dabbling in about 11 tickers at moment.

RSI back below 30 again so maybe a bit more downward push tomorrow....imagine it'll be back to 65-66p again in a week or less. My thinking is that nothing exciting happens here until mid/late November now.

WT ... not really into TRN. FCH is my most consistent ticker and the drop today into the results was what I was waiting for.

Generally anything with debt has been dragged down .... if gilts are giving 6%, why mess around with shares in companies which give no return currently.

Just quick and fast with IQE. See no long term investment there but it gets played with a fair bit and just through there was too much effort to try and get it sub 9 let alone under 8.50. I expect to get out at 10 or 11p min in coming weeks.

I think don't be scared to sell at 70p and chance the buy back in at low 60s on SYNT. They have a decent free float with the shorted shares in the mix, so until they need to close they have free reign here. Strong stomach and lots of patience!

Brokers recs simply fall outside the area the FCA can operate unless they can prove collusion. Same happened on THG with Morgan Stanley pumping in another reduction. As ever, they are never really quick wins and you very rarely get in at the lowest.

The issue remains here in terms of how they can actually chisel away at the debt whilst providing shareholder return. Bottom line is they cannot for the foreseeable future. Free cash generation simply has to go to debt reduction and the only way to accelerate is through another asset sale or through a RI/D4E type thing maybe next year. Maybe that's what the shorts see and their activity is at least presenting some relatively risk free trading opportunities down at this kind of level. Does not seem worthy of holding and if it happens, maybe buy on the rise when management actually present an outlook which is beyond the house of cards balancing on ALSA.

Nice to see steady increase and hold over 150. Between now and the results in September, you'd hope to see a steady incline based on what's already known. Going into the results around 175 would be pleasant!

WT, Looks like Worldquant's Alpha is pointing downwards but really looks like what they dump in is being absorbed reasonably well. Get back in the 20's RSI wise you'd expect. I'm backing MCG / THG and IQE claw back some recent declines before this goes anywhere ... as ever, hoping I'm on the right side of the tracks! OCDO pulling back nicely too.

Hi Busicat, I think it's just a case of remaining cautious and accepting it might be a while. I still think that November coupon date on the bond will also be important. Some holders might switch to equity if we are still well under a £1 and the H1 26 outlook is more positive. A few million shares either way shifts this ticker hugely.

The RSI has balanced to 30 and very similar has happened to Tullow which is continuing at a somewhat faster rate. Maybe low to mid 70's is where it will settle? Mind you breaking 65 was hard enough so won't hold my breath!

I'm not a chartist ... maybe need one of them talking about their upside down teapots and wotnot!

Yep, sticking to the airlines sounds good. Seems like you make some there.

I have about a handful that I'm messing with all the time. I thought Tullow was a gift in the 9p and similar to here, the massive oversell has corrected a little. That said, I was holding a few at 15p into the results so only just about traded out of the loss on those so far.

Here as I think it's just a wait for the bang and hopefully upwards! I think similar to the 2024 run it will be on impending/delivered positive news and we'll be off to the races. I thought we might settle down into the low 70s this week but looks like it's holding where it is. Going to be a frustrating wait I think but it's a simple case of a pick up in the end markets and all is rosie here. The alternative is they simply don't pick up and this time next year it's a significant cash problem for them.

Still no holding RNS ... I don't know if that's good or not right now!!

Look at the bond prices ... limited impact really. So quite likely purchases on the bond side with short on the equity. 8% coupon on 24-29 closer to 10 right now. Been creeping up since hitting about 12% below par in mid-July. If you can buy the bond under par, seems like a good deal for a company not paying divis with the next payment date in November. Maybe it will be then that a change happens but if that has happened, there's simply more shares in the pool with no big institutional buyers mopping them up.

I'm really not sure about EVOK which is why I have stayed away. So from memory the biggest holders are Israeli and the best buyers would be Saudi/Qatari. Challenging times for that to pan out right now and I think big US EQT players would be scared to regulatory turn here which looks more downside risk than status quo.

Smartest move Rachel in Accounts can make right now is an internet tax and target discretionary spend. Would raise a fair chunk of that £40bn. Unfortunately that same argument could be made on a gambling tax and frankly should be a % put on the bet. Similar to the regulatory digital tax thing.