Member Info for joseywales

First had PAY 2/3 years ago when they a bit lower then they are now ... I think 400 rings a bell. Then sold too early but made very well on it. Think it got back to 7/800 mark. Bought on that profit drop as it's clearly overdone and would expect it to go 6-700 window with a potential to climb further. Quite like the Collect+ side and with RM on board, should see some further traction. Did not know about the UAE money.

Can't remember the name of it but did well on a UAE payments operator which was sold eventually .... is was Network something or other and simply had quite an extended period of SP pressure for no real reason.

Yep, staying quiet too. Could this possibly be the run we've been waiting for here. Needs to break that 60p. I'm simply not selling anymore until this is approaching £2. Wrong side of the sell I did with the intention to buy back but hey-ho.

I bailed on EVOK and took a loss. I think it might settle in the 30's but not hanging around for that. Bought at 31p yesterday and sold them earlier after the RNS and industry replies. Will try not to look at it in future as might be a honey trap!

PAY definitely interesting and I have some.

FCH on the climb again ... sold what I got at 116 and basically bought on every 2 p drop from 122.

Good fun at MCG after a somewhat concerning run up to the update. Caught a great drop first thing yesterday.

Same page on OCDO.

JD. and possibly here I think might be good if the supreme court goes against the Donald. Not sure what then happens to treasury bonds and the like if all the monies have to be re-paid!

I think we have not had proper government for a long time. Pay peanuts you get monkeys springs to mind. We have a service economy which has not felt the brunt of AI solutions just yet. Was just on a call about something AI related and it's basically going to knock out a whole tier of management in a company. The UK economy sits in a precarious position because of the nature of its income. Scary.

Funny thing is, EVOKs space is pretty Ai resistant and the government has just killed it.

Imagine this will eventually settle into the 30's for some time. At least the facts are in play now. The predicted 50/60m hit to EBITDA is mentioned but the unknown is the impact on demand. If Betfred shows their hand and announces closures, then that will be the start of consolidation. Thing is, if there's no money in it, you don't do it ... simple as that.

Quick loss for me having bought back in yesterday at 31p. The comments coming out make it far more bleak than I understood it to be and cannot be bothered to hang around when there are still good opportunities after that sell off period. Next biggie will be the supreme court ruling on tariffs.

Well I will bite again at 31p. This was a known threat (albeit the exact detail was lacking). Now there is clarity and lot will be pass through, seems this is well overdone. 6 months for the company to get the application of any changes in place but this is far from the hmmshow it was. Might even drive more to retail actually.

Maybe someone has already covered, but the comment they made about the German monthly ticket thing was passed by the German Govt at the 49.50/month with @ inflation increases.

Management are downbeat and conservative. Exactly what is needed now. They've hit target at the lower end of the range, appointed auditors and the revenue increase in Germany is welcome (even if the wider issue not sorted).

As they sell more UK assets (if they can), it moves it to a more ALSA based business and they'll lose SG&A in the UK as well. Think they if they get WMATA sorted, they could look at selling that business as maybe ALSA and management should concentrate on EMEA.

Suddenly the business is less of a basket case than it was ... no longer a house of cards sat on ALSAs shoulders. It is ALSA!

No, that was a real result that. Not sold them yet though. Bit of luck that alone pays for Xmas. Kids can have some new socks!

Cannot believe it went into 19s first thing. Hopefully we will be back up to 25p plus next week and onwards from there.

Well the appointment of auditors and more surprisingly the operating profit confirmation is very pleasing. Will buy on any dip if there is one first thing.

No surprise on the hybrid. Did not even think that was on the cards anyway.

Management delivering….refreshing.

He's getting grammar lessons in lieu of payment .... bless!

....or it's simply not true!

Thing is, if they hit that OP and stay on plan with a good outlook for the ALSA with the UK coach incorporated into it, then why would it not climb back to over 30p in coming months. The other weird thing to note is that in the past this has been run by algo trades. What you are seeing here are orders coming through as if it is being attacked by some kind of 'REddit' gang.

Certainly worth being prepared for the worst. Opted not to do another tranche which I'd planned to do. Average of just over 23p so will have to suck it up if this is a disaster tomorrow. For that, something would have had to go terribly wrong in the last couple of months for which you'd have thought they'd be obligated to issue a profit warning against the 180-195m operating profit they were 'confident' of in September.

But lets not get down about it, maybe the Cosmen's have made some Saudi pals and it's all going to go hostile for a 60p/share takeover and bondholders get stiffed on redemption tenders and the like. IF ONLY!

I know that. My point is they are basically forecasting to double OP between H1 and H2 to hit their 180m target. It's a big call but only recently commented on by them. The new (old) guard need to deliver on that really.

That aside, my point was always about net asset value. Nothing to do with cash constraint since all the carnage has (on the whole) actually been non-cash.

Suspect the drop from 25p's has been a hedge on bond purchase / CFD mixed with a load of low level shenanigans. The trade volume/value spiked on one maybe two days to £1.5 to £2m traded but today it doesn't even look like £500K.

If management believe what they are putting out and wanted to be ruthless, they could take this private for very little indeed right now. There's zero benefit to them being a listed company. Sort it out and list on European exchange down the road.

So the reality is that the 180m operating profit expectation detailed in the H1 presentation, is unlikely to be hit. Hard to see where is comes from as in effect ALSA would need to deliver something like 130m to cover WDU an UK weakness with Germany already covered by provisions in place. What a mess that previous management team made!! Why did they not just sell WDU as well ... what place have they got to be messing around in the USA. ALSAs strides in the ME look way more interesting.

Just saw the update message after typing the last message. Think that's great news ... let's face it, whatever happens it won't be the worst news of the day. Rachel in Accounts already owns that on Wednesday.

The performance of ALSA and the mid to long term opportunity for the company are not in dispute. Would be hard to argue that. Also, it really is not necessarily shorting creating this dip. Without a meaningful update they are in a precarious position with no auditors, a questionable net asset position and a contract which actually cannot be defined in terms of profitability/liability. Retail shorts and those that have bought a seat might try their luck.

In building the business they simply stacked up intangibles and this is a great example of why when you acquire a company you strip the intangibles apart. Most of them should simply not be on the balance sheet as they are irrelevant to the true worth of a company. They are just a horrible accounting reality! They are non-cash related but impact the net asset value of the company. This was already down to a couple of hundred million. Not sure what the net of the NSAB was (cash in - intangible and working asset write off). Maybe there is another hit to net assets there.

Germany seems already well covered by the future contract provision in place ... a positive resolution there could reverse some of that. There's actually potential for a huge upside which if coincides with UK mess getting sorted, would propel the SP back to the 70/80p type level.

Now should net assets for any reason go negative. It's not a disaster. Short term, any covenants around net assets could be waived but some funds might have issues remaining invested and that's probably the bigger issue and a pressure point for any potential capital restructure which would be resisted and the Cosmens alone have nigh on enough to block that out. So it could well be that some are switching to a CFD equivelant product.

It's just a situation which is completely unrelated to the companies ability to pay it's bills and purely short term.

What I expect is that even worst case scenario, their own cash generation (which from memory runs as 90+%) should keep them in positive net asset territory. All just my opinion and guesswork though. I'm holding and will wait for the update ... I think this Phil White knows well the game he's playing and how to fix things.

Yes, I grabbed EVOK on that dip. Plan to hold for mid 40's and make some proper money on that one. Might take a few months. On the flipside ... kept buying MCG and might well be a falling knife. Will know within a month!

As for SYNT ... I think April/May is the timeline for decent recovery at the earliest so just like you are doing, small marginal sells and buys hoping you stay the right side of it and average down. I have not bought back what I sold yet ... think we will see sub 45p.

RI here would be share consolidation say 1 for 20 and then the RI based on 5 for 1 or similar. Zero's current holding but only generates 100m so simply no point in it.

My comment about the pre-emptive is more when the SP gets to 70-90p. It's an opportunity to accelerate debt reduction should they choose and can demonstrate continuing trajectory. Again purely my opinion and comment was not supposed to create the splurge about RIs!

Right now, the DE sorted and auditors appointed sends this to 32-35p in my opinion only!!