The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Year high is still 33p. Drops to 25p-ish come end of April .... so I'd get used to the silence and suppressed SP for another month or so!
Who know how many GSA are holding and what they need to buy. If you look at their shorting history they try to sniff out opportunities which a chance of failure/significant restructuring. Really does not look like this is one of those instances. In fact the groundwork has really been underway for some time. Was only in for a quick win but will keep some long term now. Will treble and then some in 18 months ... if Redwood don't look to buy it.
Well we could be down here or worse for some time. Very much doubt Robswire is short or long, so it's better he trolls the company than people on social media or the like.
Where he is right is in offering a contrary view. Things are far from right in the company and your lens is somewhat rose tinted Hedge.
Like many investments, I am playing with money I know I can flat out lose here. It will sting but a large proportion added just lately is from profit elsewhere.
I don't think the business will fail. I do however think management are working on keeping their holdings intact and a way to get it off AIM at the lowest cost/benefit to them and whoever they might be working with. So it could well be in their interest to have this SP so low for some time.
The business really has been throttled by ATMs and rental and there's no hiding the fact it's taken a hugely inflated IPO down to peanuts in the space of a few years.
Let's just hope for better and not be too shocked by the worst. It's a simple business that could be corrected very quickly but how much we shareholders benefit from that ... I'm not sure.
Like many, I sold a few of what I held yesterday to mitigate risk and potentially buy back in this morning. That report gives me the confidence to buyback if the sp does not runaway on open.
GMHK ... that RNS from MCG was a kick in the goolies. Looks like it will be months till a re-rate happens there. Surprised what you say about WINE. After the run from the high 20s to the 60's, I did not think we'd see under 50p again.
In. Sold half of mine in the 27 as bought loads in the high 23s. I think it's ages till news comes still ... there was a minor upgrade from SocGen and not sure if that's kicked the algos into override.
No idea ... do you know what the LuM is in the US? Probably easiest to take that and build an assumption based upon x/million.
Someone seems to be selling into the buyback at the moment so once they finish, we should see a nice slow increase which will jump on announcement of US deal.
One thing after another! Sold a few chunks just in case this ends up in the 50s again. Such a mess.
I also think FRES has great potential. OCDO I have but will sell once they break through 500 . Never been in AML ... I love risk but that's been all over the shop for so long. I stay away from ASOS.
WOSG has also just got very interesting. Have bought a couple of tranches. Started on WINE again the other day also.
I'm as loaded as I'm comfortable with in MCG, JUP and THG. I still kept some FCH as the buyback and US sale could still catapult it some more. Strangely JUP is the one I think might be disappointing ... was expecting more traction by now.
MMAG is the 'outsider' for me.
Considering CURY again now the takeover buzz has cooled. Might see if it goes mid 50s again.
WT ... also bought DARK first thing this morning...that KKR news seems to have given it a clobbering for no huge reason.
Yes, being serious for a minute GMHK... Taking the EBITDA at 6 times and stripping out net debt, the SP is now at a far more sensible level. Roughly loosely 250 would be spot on. Guidance on a path to 200m+ EBITDA has not yet been provided and H1 update and results may become more pivotal. I don't see how this gets to 350 without further positive update from the company.
Whilst the outlook is one to be positive about, the path is still a rocky one. There are plenty out there which have stronger prospects of that sort of uplift in coming few months.
For clarity, I have no SYNT shares right now so my narrative is swayed to a pullback preference.
Hi WT ... I 'd not bother. Wigwammer has a history of digging people out. When not doing that, the comments generated are generally plagiarised or simply lack any substantive commercial acumen. Often piggy backs articulate, thought out commentary. I look at it as just another manifestation of the small person syndrome and a desperate attempt to find a relevance amongst peers.
Had to chuckle that the thrush subtext clearly went over WW's head...thought it would.
Was wondering when I was due another dose of thrush. My chat history is there for all to see. There will be something there where I talk about how futile it is to simply hold and hold and not trade within the ticker. I think Wigwammer the little petal, got a bit flustered and confused by it all and should probably just have invested in managed funds rather than try this out for him/herself.
On the sauce since 9 I’d say.
Roll on Wednesday. You don’t add that many shares to your holding without some relevant insight.
PK…obviously options make a difference but the CFDs should not really play into it at all really? The volatility is lacking to use CFD hedging?
Would not describe it as a price spike. It went down quite quickly from low 80s to high 60s on low volume. You have to think those short will want to be holding stock going into the results. In my opinion even chasing a quick win from the 60s…should not sell till it gets sticky below 80p. But who knows with this wretch!
If you look at the trading volumes, there's no manipulation. Lots simply sold on results once any kind of quick win was off the table. Turning 7.5m Ebitda into a 6m loss PBT (and cash churn reflecting that) is the sort of headline most would tend to run away from.
Get back to basics. Quit rental and cease any further ATM expansion. Management swung and missed. They need to focus on month on month cash generation and forget the rest of the noise. If they can't get the support for the MBO they should close the offer period too. Either they accept Eq will heavily dilute them on structure because of the state of affairs ... or get off the pot!
All that said, they could turn the ship very rapidly ... that's the beauty of secondary market business.
Hi GMHK. Yep MCG getting a little pounded. Not too concerned and will load more at 65 and 60p if it gets down to there. I'll probably have quite a lot going into results but only because it's been in that 55-90p range for so long now.
I'm still not convinced of a SYNT charge ... when RR. went it was a very different set of reasons/dynamics. Will keep watching and for me buying back in at sub 200 will be the initial target. Those broker targets are dependent on the company delivering to plan and a recovery in the chemicals sector ... I am confident both will come but I still feel shorts will engage once funds and the like tail off their re-investing.
I think if the results come out and they are as they've already indicated without more surprises, this could go over £1 very quickly. On the flipside, another surprise and we are in the 50s all talking about 2025...for those that remain.
I think they have to publish by the end of March to comply with rules don't they...so 28th March latest? I assume they could also let the results drop without notice?
I know GMHK ... it's just I don't think I've seen a ticker go like that on what was effectively nothing outside the update already provided. Whilst I felt the extension on covenant relaxation was important, to gain almost £1 in a couple of days seems too fast for a company that's not quite out the woods yet. That said ... regretting the miss on the 8% today!!
It's tough in fairness. I have taken the opportunity to buy way more than I had over the last couple of days and my average has plummeted. It's purely profit I've made elsewhere so I can risk it. However, if I was to look at the red number that still exists against MMAG long enough ... I'd get emotional too!! Just part of the process and just need to win more of them than you lose. Hopefully this turns to a win but we have to remember that failure is always 0!
Personally I think there is a chance you are right Hedge. By pumping some sales into the system, there is a slight chance that whoever it is could scoop up a significant % just taking the SP to say 11p. It really depends on what that free float in retail is. Also has to happen fast because of the 1% RNS rule we are under.