Member Info for joseywales

Was she the one that was the boss at Future or similar? Hardly going to throw 200K away but I've seen this happen before after director purchases where the share continues to get a pounding.

I held TRST last year when it was down at this level and have bought some with intent to build more if the drop continues. Other than the statement already made about some 'cooling off', I could not find anything else which should red flag any buy in at these levels?

GI,

Yes, on intangibles CURY did something similar to generate the statutory loss. They have something like 3bn of intangible sat on their books from memory.

What is different is the 'not so bad' reporting on the PBT level but overall cash outflow. So taking PBT and going from 44m net cash to 100m net debt ... where'd the cash go? At the end of the day there will be answers and I think taking the divi off the table gave it the pummelling it received. I sort of think they need to sell the Greek business for the balance sheet not to prop the SP.

When it comes to MCG I still think of it as long term (CURY I thought would be a quick win)!. I am sure between now and results it will be in the low 100's one minute and 90's the next. I will also have some in the tank for results day so I can add on any dramatic fall relating to no interim divi or non-cash writedown etc

I'd also add it's been an especially brutal day for the UK market. Just seems we are living in a country which is being killed by a thousand cuts with leadership asleep at the wheel and the pompous brexiteer gang are simply or sitting there laughing at what they have created ... bet they've been shorting since 2016!

It was a cross trade (ACTX).

I have grabbed another 11K of these to bring my average fractionally below £1 now. Hopefully cannot lose from there ... but I thought that with the average I had in CURY until the news hit this morning!

What I do find strange is that the shorts are not closing when you'd think it would be a good time to start banking profit.

Incredibly disappointing. Nothing positive from that at all really. Bottom line is cash consumption does not lie and despite what looks like fair UK&I results (setting aside intangible writedown), the above expectation PBT and cash position provide a contrasting picture.

Market's having fun with this already so has at least provided opportunity to recover some loss. Not sure I will stay invested though....just reads like a bleak outlook.

Coastal Capital also describe themselves as an event driven company. Since KCT are not 'distressed' in any way, seems like they too feel this will be scooped up if the market cap on it remains so low.

So those AO results are showing 8m PBT. CURY is supposed to be posting 110-120m according to the last update, with a market cap only 30% or so higher than that of AO. This has been held down extraordinarily well and seems to have really suffered from the mass exodus of cash out of UK PLC.

Hopefully a divi and an idea of valuation on the Greek business will help things along tomorrow.

I really don't think its a problem. I have a few theories which are just idle conspiracy but ultimately results drive price. So these results for H1 will be important and then the full year 2023 crucial. Nothing to indicate they will not deliver, so nothing to say this does not get back to 180/220 when prelims for 2023 come out.

I don't think it is shorts or debt. I'd be happy to see it go lower and hopefully tie in with my exit out of one or two I have less longer term faith in during July.

Ghenghis ... yes the Q1 covid impact was significant in that it meant the UK business posted a loss. The significant jump in Q1 revenue mention in the update was largely down to UK being back to normal.

Don't forget the 2022 loss had the Alsa writedown. That intangible was a non-cash impact. It's a big part of what's being missed and fact I hate the intangible balance sheet lines.

So the reverse of that is next week it sounded like Currys will report positive PBT but actually they sit on something like £3bn intangible and it looks like they have no intention to writedown. At the end of the day it's just wooden dollars.

Sorry someone also mentioned BT. Well Telecoms is an incredibly capital intensive and debt laden sector - way bigger multiple than we are talking here. If you want to see something eyewatering, take a look at AT&T and put 5% on that debt number! Pointless comparison...

Looking at it very simply, if you take 2022 and put a 6 x EBITDA value on the business it would be c.£2.4m. Then strip the net debt away and you have a value of £2 .... probably closer to the £2.20 net asset value which has been mentioned before. Bottom line is there would be a wrangle over intangibles so £2 would be super conservative value. Of course this year you'd probably expect a significantly stronger EBITDA off the back of UK recovery ... so that improves the number. Some would also argue higher ebitda multiples based on barriers to entry, contract lengths etc ...

Now with the UK not suffering the covid impact which it did in Q1 2022, you would expect a stronger EBITDA contribution from that business for H1 2023. You should also see that impact cash too if the 81% conversion is maintained.

Right now, the only imminent fixed rate expiry is the £400m. Frankly if the ROCE is maintained at that 7.7% range, there is not a massive need to clear it down but I'd expect come year end the business could afford to trim 15-20% of the net debt at a push.

Some of these one liners are almost are coming out like: 'I heard billy speaking to molly in the playground and he said debt is bad' and completely failing to put any kind of supportive, statistical structure behind their valuation. There is such a thing as good use of debt even in a 5% market. Also it's clear some have not reviewed the debt structure.

JG, I think the large ii holders are in it for the long haul and see this type of price action across their holdings anyway. I'd much rather management deliver the results which generate cash and dividends than what's happening to the SP. I don't think you want them pressuring the board as the options would simply be a raise to pay down debt or sell off assets. Not a good time for either. I think they should review a raise but probably when you get to that 180 level (maybe in 2024)...I'd rather that than sell off businesses.

Part of their incentive plans are linked to a 180p price. I'm sure they will be laser focussed on ending H1 positively and presenting a robust strong outlook for H2 and into 2024 come end of July.

It's the sell through data that's needed. Whilst there's a limited in store range which Boots would pay for and stock, the majority seems to be marketplace listings just like Amazon. I am not convinced they are selling much across amazon having reviewed the data I got through the scout software. I also came across checkmybodyhealth .... for a company that was dormant when filing in october 2022, they are selling through at a decent rate on Amazon. Also the website makes some bold claims for a company which has just started selling. Do they have anything to do with myhealthchecked as the website is close to the bone in terms of outright copy of design?

I'm holding what I have for now. Need to hear from management.

jg, there are so many you can mention right now at multi year lows. its just a case of accepting a rough summer and maybe little recovery in the ftse250/350 this year.

funds are simply losing out to clients drawing down cash. just look at the rns feed for the ftse 250 and how many holdings are reductions for likes of jp, blackrock, ms, liontrust, artemis etc etc. i myself moved my managed funds away from uk small companies/ftse250. it's not just the inflation/interest rates it really is a lack of believe the government has the toolset to govern and the brexit toll can't be undone. the crutches keeping the uk standing are the pensioners they gave a 10% pay increase to .... money python couldn't make that **** up!

I don't know what you are in for Jamrock but I have a little under a 20p average and see the July half yearly as a pivotal moment. Sell through will be crucial and if they can report robust sell through I believe this should fly and quite potentially it will get the PE/Trade interest to take private. As I've said before, the price point is white noise till then and certainly when trade volume is less than pittance. Everyone's waiting on the numbers!

Very, very happy with the price down here. I hope this is not just a fast tree shake and that I can buy more in coming weeks. I don't care about the red number in my portfolios on this ticker.

There's been no profit warning, Q1 report with nice revenue climb vs covid impacted Q1 22 and a rail network crippled by strikes in the UK.

I am in a few others which you could describe as confusing and mad but this one is full out Britney buzzcut.

With the directors having just bought in, it's certainly nothing they are aware of. I have conspiracy theories rattling around in my mind but ultimately it could simply be a forced sell off. With interest rates at 5% and funds' AUM likely being hammered at retail level, you'd understand why in some cases it's simply necessary.

SP not NAV!

You went from 120 to 160 in 10 mins!

Conceptually I am starting to agree. It could be Blackrock/Morgan are working in cohorts with some US fund to lowball offer this to take the whole business and then hive off non US assets down the road. They effectively think they can pay the value of US business if they drive the NAV far enough down. Maybe that's what all those swaps Morgan had in an RNS was all about.

It was the operating margins which made the divi permissible. I think there is a % written into the covenants.

Most debt is fixed but you have the £400m bridge agreed for later in the year which I am guessing might be at market.

No point selling USA business or any other to pay down debt. WG. went through that process and I saw this morning that they are trading back at the same level before they sold their consulting unit and paid down debt.